Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability.
Abstract
The Indian monsoon interannual variability is modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a drier than normal monsoon season usually preceding peak El Niño conditions, and vice versa for La Niña phase. Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, however, are not the only player. Building upon our recent discovery that atmospheric teleconnections between the tropical Atlantic and the Indian basin contributed to the weakening of the ENSO‐monsoon anticorrelation during the '80s and '90s, we investigate the role of south equatorial Atlantic SSTs in forcing the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR). Using two observational data sets and two ensembles of simulations we show that the residual in the IMR time series for observed and modeled data, obtained by subtracting the ENSO‐forced component of the IMR that is linearly related to the NINO34 index, is significantly correlated with south equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Our results have important implications for seasonal forecast efforts.
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A positive AMM favors an earlier migration of the ITCZ northward during April-May, shortening the rainfall season over the Amazon region and Brazilian Northeast and leading to severe droughts over the Northeast.
“A positive AMM favors an earlier migration of the ITCZ northward during April-May, shortening the rainfall season over the Amazon region and Brazilian Northeast and leading to severe droughts over the Northeast (Figures 4B,C; Nobre and Shukla, 1996;Hastenrath, 2006;Kucharski et al., 2008;Liebmann and Mechoso, 2011;Rodrigues et al., 2011).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Kucharski et al., 2008
Cites
Kucharski, F., Bracco, A., Yoo, J. H., & Molteni, F. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4254.1 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
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The tropical atlantic observing system
Foltz, G. R., Brandt, P., Richter, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Hernandez, F., Dengler, M., Rodrigues, R. R., Schmidt, J. O., Yu, L., Lefevre, N., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00206 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kucharski, F., Bracco, A., Yoo, J. H., & Molteni, F.
- Affiliations
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2008-02
- Volume
- 35
- Issue
- 4
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2171299580
- Cited by
- 252
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 32 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 11.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Indian monsoon rainfall, interannual variability, ENSO, teleconnections, seasonal forecasting
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