Have tropical cyclones been feeding more extreme rainfall?
Open accessAbstract
We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC‐rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC‐rain to total rain, Ω , increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979–2005, and for the post‐SSM/I period (1988–2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979–2005 period, but not for the post‐SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Ω for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Ω are mixed, and the long‐term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.
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Tropical cyclones contribute substantially to off-equatorial precipitation extremes in the current climate.
“and tropical cyclones contribute substantially to off-equatorial precipitation extremes in the current climate [45].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [45]
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- Authors
- Lau, K. ‐., Zhou, Y. P., & Wu, H. ‐.
- Affiliations
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- University of Maryland, Baltimore County (US)
- Science Systems and Applications (United States) (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2008-12-13
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- D23
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2023284003
- Cited by
- 126
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 2.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- public-domain
- onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (submittedVersion)
- Maryland Shared Open Access Repository (USMAI Consortium) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Digital Repository at the University of Maryland (University of Maryland College Park) (public-domain)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Earth Sciences Division
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall, North Atlantic, western North Pacific, interannual variability, interdecadal variability, SSM/I, GPCP, TRMM
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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