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Cited by 1,769Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones ResearchClimate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications

Goldenberg, Stanley B., Landsea, Christopher W., Mestas-Nuñez, Alberto M., Gray, William M.·2001·Science
DOI 10.1126/science.1060040
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Abstract

The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Compared with the generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971 to 1994), the past 6 years have seen a doubling of overall activity for the whole basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (≥50 meters per second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean. The greater activity results from simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear. Because these changes exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional ∼10 to 40 years. The shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of preparedness and mitigation strategies.

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Crossref · 10.1126/science.1060040

Cites

36 of 36 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • There has been significant decadal-multidecadal variability of TC activity in the Atlantic, with above-normal activity during the 1940s and 50s, below-normal from the 60s to the early 90s, and above-normal since the mid-90s.

    “There has also been significant decadal-multidecadal variability of TC activity in the Atlantic, with above-normal activity during the 1940s and 50s, belownormal from the 60s to the early 90s, and above-normal since the mid-90s (Goldenberg et al., 2001).”

    From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Goldenberg et al., 2001

  • There is strong evidence linking decadal-multidecadal tropical Atlantic SST variability to hurricane activity, but the drivers of this SST variability are not well known.

    “There is also strong evidence linking decadal-multidecadal tropical Atlantic SST variability to hurricane activity (Goldenberg et al., 2001;Latif et al., 2007;Balaguru et al., 2018), but the drivers of this SST variability are not well known (Yang, 1999;Chang et al., 2000;Tanimoto and Xie, 2002;Evan et al., 2011;Booth et al., 2012;Clement et al., 2015).”

    From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Goldenberg et al., 2001

  • In examining changes in sea surface temperatures and hurricane occurrences, one study found observed hurricane trends were part of larger oscillations.

    “When examining the changes in sea surface temperatures and hurricane occurrences, one study 27 found that the observed hurricane trends were just part of larger oscillations”

    From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [27]

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Authors
Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nuñez, A. M., & Gray, W. M.
Affiliations
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
  • Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
  • Colorado State University (US)
Corresponding author
Goldenberg, Stanley B.
ORCID
Goldenberg, Stanley B.
Venue
Science
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published
2001-07-20
Volume
293
Issue
5529
Pages
474-479
ISSN
  • 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
  • 1095-9203
DOI
10.1126/science.1060040
OpenAlex
W2016709145
Cited by
1,769
References
36
Citations by year
2026: 37 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 59 · 2023: 59 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 69 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 76 · 2018: 64 · 2017: 73 · 2016: 81 · 2015: 79 · 2014: 81 · 2013: 106 · 2012: 75
FWCI
16.54
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Science (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords
Atlantic hurricanes, North Atlantic sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, multidecadal climate variability, major hurricanes, Caribbean hurricanes, hurricane preparedness, hurricane mitigation, climate change

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