The DOI matches its Crossref record; 12 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill?
Abstract
The principle of selecting climate models based on their agreement with observations has been tested for surface temperature using 17 of the IPCC AR4 models. Those models simulating global mean, Siberian and European 20th Century surface temperature with a lower error than the total ensemble for one period on average do not do so for a subsequent period. Error in the ensemble mean decreases systematically with ensemble size, N, and for a random selection as approximately 1/Nα, where α lies between 0.6 and 1. This is larger than the exponent of a random sample (α = 0.5) and appears to be an indicator of systematic bias in the model simulations. There is no evidence that any subset of models delivers significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to the total ensemble.
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“and only a slight persistence of model skill during the past century (Reifen and Toumi 2009).”
From Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections (2010) · cites this paper as Reifen and Toumi 2009
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Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models
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Constraints on climate change from a multi‐thousand member ensemble of simulations
Piani, C., Frame, D. J., Stainforth, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024452 · Cited by 152
Whetton, P., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., & O'Grady, J. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl030025 · Cited by 104 · cited 2×
“studied in terms of pattern-scaling using the ‘‘perfect model assumption’’ [Whetton et al., 2007].”
MethodClimate model fidelity and projections of climate change
Shukla, J., DelSole, T., Fennessy, M. J., Kinter, J. L., & Paolino, D. A. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl025579 · Cited by 88
Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation
Kiktev, D. B., Caesar, J., Alexander, L. V., Shiogama, H., & Collier, M. A. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl029539 · Cited by 73
Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A., Calbó, J., Vide, J. M., Garcia‐Manuel, A., García‐Soriano, G., & Beck, C. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl034160 · Cited by 39
Carlin (2002) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015
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Li, H., Sheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2010) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2009jd012882 · Cited by 903
Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
Anav, A., Friedlingstein, P., Kidston, M., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Cox, P. M., JONES, C. D., Jung, M., Myneni, R. B., & Zhu, Z. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00417.1 · Cited by 500
Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections
Weigel, A. P., Knutti, R., Liniger, M. A., & Appenzeller, C. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3594.1 · Cited by 386
Weaver, C., Lempert, R. J., Brown, C., Hall, J. A., Revell, D. L., & Sarewitz, D. (2012) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.202 · Cited by 371
Observed Surface Energy Effects in Confined Diblock Copolymers
Kellogg, G. J., Walton, D. G., Mayes, A. M., Lambooy, P., Russell, T. P., Gallagher, P. D., & Satija, S. K. (1996) · Physical Review Letters · doi:10.1103/physrevlett.76.2503 · Cited by 327
Metadata
- Authors
- Reifen, C., & Toumi, R.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- ORCID
- Toumi, R.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2009-07
- Volume
- 36
- Issue
- 13
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2064730812
- Cited by
- 144
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 10.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate model selection, model skill, surface temperature, ensemble size, model bias, climate change projections
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