Cited by 144Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsClimate Change Policy and Economics

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Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill?

Reifen, C., Toumi, R.·2009·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2009gl038082

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Abstract

The principle of selecting climate models based on their agreement with observations has been tested for surface temperature using 17 of the IPCC AR4 models. Those models simulating global mean, Siberian and European 20th Century surface temperature with a lower error than the total ensemble for one period on average do not do so for a subsequent period. Error in the ensemble mean decreases systematically with ensemble size, N, and for a random selection as approximately 1/Nα, where α lies between 0.6 and 1. This is larger than the exponent of a random sample (α = 0.5) and appears to be an indicator of systematic bias in the model simulations. There is no evidence that any subset of models delivers significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to the total ensemble.

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Authors: Reifen, C., & Toumi, R.
Affiliations: Imperial College London (GB)
ORCID: Toumi, R.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2009-07
Volume: 36
Issue: 13
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2009gl038082
OpenAlex: W2064730812
Cited by: 144
References: 12
Citations by year: 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 12
FWCI: 10.85
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 6 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords: climate model selection, model skill, surface temperature, ensemble size, model bias, climate change projections

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Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill?

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