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Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?
Abstract
A control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 global coupled GCM, run for 2000 years with its atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, and land cover held fixed at 1860 values, exhibits strong interdecadal and intercentennial modulation of its ENSO behavior. To the extent that such modulation is realistic, it could attach large uncertainties to ENSO metrics diagnosed from centennial and shorter records – with important implications for historical and paleo records, climate projections, and model assessment and intercomparison. Analysis of the wait times between ENSO warm events suggests that such slow modulation need not require multidecadal memory; it can arise simply from Poisson statistics applied to ENSO's interannual time scale and seasonal phase‐locking.
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Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model
Held, I. M., Guo, H., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., Bushuk, M., et al. (2019) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001829 · Cited by 594
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Metadata
- Authors
- Wittenberg, A. T.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2009-06
- Volume
- 36
- Issue
- 12
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2161074445
- Cited by
- 539
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 18.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
