The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The current generation of GCMs has no consensus on whether the statistics of ENSO, PDO, NAO, or AMO events will be altered in the future.
“The current generation of GCMs has no consensus on whether the statistics of ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), NAO, or AMO events will be altered in the future”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [22]
Any likely changes to the intensity, spatial extent, frequency, and impacts on upwelling within EBUS of ENSO, PDO, NAO, or AMO remain unclear.
“so any likely changes to their intensity, spatial extent, frequency, and impacts on upwelling within EBUS remain unclear [6,22].”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [22]
Predictions of physical change in EBUS are complicated by basin-scale modes of climate variability at interannual to decadal scales that strongly impact upwelling intensity and ocean conditions.
“Finally, predictions of physical change are complicated by basin-scale modes of climate variability at interannual to decadal scales that strongly impact upwelling intensity and ocean conditions.”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [22]
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523 · see citing works
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2743 · Cited by 891 · see citing works
Self-citationGobler, C. J., Doherty, O. M., Hattenrath-Lehmann, T. K., Griffith, A. W., Kang, Y., & Litaker, R. W. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1619575114 · Cited by 537 · see citing works
Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems
Bakun, A., Black, B. A., Bograd, S. J., García-Reyes, M., Miller, A. J., Rykaczewski, R. R., & Sydeman, W. J. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4 · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Huang, G., D'Arrigo, R., Liu, F., Ma, J., & Zheng, X.-T. (2011) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1086 · Cited by 349 · see citing works
Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability
Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M., Dong, B., Maidment, R. I., Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., et al. (2023) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x · Cited by 383 · see citing works
Holmes, C. D., Prather, M. J., Søvde, O. A., & Myhre, G. (2013) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-13-285-2013 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., & Yang, K. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Self-citationHow Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
Fredriksen, H., Berner, J., Subramanian, A. C., & Capotondi, A. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl090640 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Bartzke, G. S., Ogutu, J. O., Mukhopadhyay, S., Mtui, D., Dublin, H. T., & Piepho, H.-P. (2018) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0202814 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming
Callahan, C. W., Chen, C., Rugenstein, M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Yang, S., & Moyer, E. J. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01099-2 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Pronounced interannual variability in tropical South Pacific temperatures during Heinrich Stadial 1
Felis, T., Merkel, U., Asami, R., Deschamps, P., Hathorne, E. C., Kölling, M., Bard, E., Cabioch, G., Durand, N., Prange, M., et al. (2012) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms1973 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Ogutu, J. O., Bartzke, G. S., Mukhopadhyay, S., Dublin, H. T., Senteu, J. S., Gikungu, D., Obara, I., & Piepho, H.-P. (2024) · PLOS Climate · doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000388 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
- Authors
- Collins, M., An, S.-I., Cai, W., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Jochum, M., Lengaigne, M., Power, S., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., & Wittenberg, A.
- Affiliations
- Yonsei University (KR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (NC)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of Reading (GB)
- Bureau of Meteorology (AU)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Geoscience
- Published
- 2010-05-23
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 391-397
- ISSN
- 1752-0894 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-0908
- OpenAlex
- W2170553462
- Cited by
- 1,230
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 37 · 2025: 61 · 2024: 80 · 2023: 59 · 2022: 78 · 2021: 87 · 2020: 103 · 2019: 70 · 2018: 84 · 2017: 79 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 100 · 2014: 83 · 2013: 93 · 2012: 79
- FWCI
- 67.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Geoscience (publishedVersion)
- University of Southern Queensland ePrints (University of Southern Queensland) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (ncas10009)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- ENSO, global warming, tropical Pacific, climate change impacts, trade wind weakening, sea surface temperature warming, equatorial thermocline, ENSO variability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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