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Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
Abstract
The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice‐free Arctic Ocean will be realized.
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Citations
Cited by
Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2
Dai, A., Luo, D., Song, M., & Liu, J. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9 · Cited by 659
Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model
Held, I. M., Guo, H., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., Bushuk, M., et al. (2019) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001829 · Cited by 594
When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?
Overland, J. E., & Wang, M. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50316 · Cited by 554
Buixadé Farré, A., Stephenson, S. R., Chen, L., Czub, M., Dai, Y., Demchev, D., Efimov, Y., Graczyk, P., Grythe, H., Keil, K., et al. (2014) · Polar Geography · doi:10.1080/1088937x.2014.965769 · Cited by 313
Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World
Niederdrenk, A. L., & Notz, D. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl076159 · Cited by 87
Metadata
- Authors
- Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., & Meier, W. N.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2012-08-25
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 16
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1960586518
- Cited by
- 1,064
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 53.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., & Meier, W. N. (2012). Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052676
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
