Assessment of covariation by humans and animals: The joint influence of prior expectations and current situational information.

Abstract

In this article, we propose a theoretical framework for understanding and integrating people's and animals' covariation assessment. We argue that covariation perception is determined by the interaction between two sources of information: (a) the organism's prior expectations about the covariation between two events and (b) current situational information provided by the environment about the objective contingency between the events. Both accuracies and errors in people's and animals' covariation assessments are analyzed within this interactional theoretical framework. We then review four lines of research in support of this analysis. Finally, we consider the issue of accuracy versus rationality in covariation assessment. A consensus has been forming among learning, clinical, and social psychologists: The ability to detect the relationships or covariations among stimuli, behaviors, and outcomes in one's environment is an important component of adaptive behavior. The covariation between two events may be defined in terms of their co-occurrence (i.e., the degree to which one event occurs more often in the presence than in the absence of the other event). Information about the relationships or covariations between events in the world provides people and animals with a means of explaining the past, controlling the present, and predicting the future, thereby maximizing the likelihood that they can obtain desired outcomes and avoid aversive ones. The concept of covariation provides a cornerstone for a number of substantive areas within psychology. For example, contemporary learning theorists point to the role of ob

Cites (245)

1. Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement.
   Rotter, Julian B. · 1966 · Psychological Monographs: General and Applied
2. Untitled work
   1954
3. The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations.
   Newcomb, Theodore, Heider, Fritz · 1958 · American Sociological Review
4. A Mathematical Theory of Evidence
   Shafer, Glenn · 2020 · Princeton University Press eBooks
5. Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes.
   Nisbett, Richard E., Wilson, Timothy D. · 1977 · Psychological Review
6. The origins of intelligence in children.
   Piaget, Jean · 1952
7. Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change
   Bandura, Albert · 1978 · Advances in Behaviour Research and Therapy
8. A theory of Pavlovian conditioning : Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement
   Robert A. Rescorla · 1972 · Medical Entomology and Zoology
9. Untitled work
   1975 · Medical Entomology and Zoology
10. Learned helplessness in humans: Critique and reformulation.
    Abramson, Lyn Y., Seligman, Martin E., Teasdale, John D. · 1978 · Journal of Abnormal Psychology

Show all 245 references

Cited by (26)

1. Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
   Nickerson, Raymond S. · 1998 · Review of General Psychology
2. Dimensions of Consumer Expertise
   Alba, Joseph W., Hutchinson, J. Wesley · 1987 · Journal of Consumer Research
3. Fears, phobias, and preparedness: toward an evolved module of fear and fear learning
   Öhman, Arne, Mineka, Susan · 2001 · Psychological Review
4. Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing
   Klayman, Joshua, Ha, Young-won · 1987 · Psychological Review
5. Credibility of electronic word-of-mouth: informational and normative determinants of on-line consumer recommendations
   Cheung, Man Yee, Luo, Chuan, Sia, Choon Ling, Chen, Huaping · 2009 · International Journal of Electronic Commerce

See all 608