Regression analyses of counts and rates: Poisson, overdispersed Poisson, and negative binomial models.

William P Gardner, Edward P. Mulvey, Esther C. Shaw·1995·Psychological Bulletin

Abstract

The regression models appropriate for counted data have seen little use in psychology. This article describes problems that occur when ordinary linear regression is used to analyze count data and presents 3 alternative regression models. The simplest, the Poisson regression model, is likely to be misleading unless restrictive assumptions are met because individual counts are usually more variable ("overdispersed") than is implied by the model. This model can be modified in 2 ways to accomodate this problem. In the overdispersed model, a factor can be estimated that corrects the regression model's inferential statistics. In the second alternative, the negative binomial regression model, a random term reflecting unexplained between-subject differences is included in the regression model. The authors compare the advantages of these approaches.

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  3. The analysis of count data: a gentle introduction to poisson regression and its alternatives.
    Coxe, Stefany, West, Stephen G., Aiken, Leona S. · 2009 · Journal of Personality Assessment
  4. Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates
    Osgood, D. Wayne · 2000 · Journal of Quantitative Criminology
  5. Reconsidering peers and delinquency: How do peers matter?
    Haynie, D. L., Osgood, D. W. · 2005 · Social Forces

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Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Regression analyses of counts and rates: Poisson, overdispersed Poisson, and negative binomial models. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1037//0033-2909.118.3.392
The paper
Gardner, W. P., Mulvey, E. P., & Shaw, E. C. (1995). Regression analyses of counts and rates: Poisson, overdispersed Poisson, and negative binomial models. Psychological Bulletin. https://doi.org/10.1037//0033-2909.118.3.392

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