Cited by 1,167Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsBayesian Modeling and Causal InferenceCategorization, perception, and language

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Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability

Tversky, Amos, Koehler, Derek J.·1994·Psychological Review

DOI 10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547

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Abstract

This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the major predictions of the theory. First, judged probability increases by unpacking the focal hypothesis and decreases by unpacking the alternative hypothesis. Second, judged probabilities are complementary in the binary case and subadditive in the general case, contrary to both classical and revisionist models of belief. Third, subadditivity is more pronounced for probability judgments than for frequency judgments and is enhanced by compatible evidence. The theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. It is extended to ordinal judgments and to the assessment of upper and lower probabilities. Both laypeople and experts are often called upon to evaluate the probability of uncertain events such as the outcome of a trial, the result of a medical operation, the success of a business venture, or the winner of a football game. Such assessments play an important role in deciding, respectively, whether to go to court, undergo surgery, invest in the venture, or bet on the home team. Uncertainty is usually expressed in verbal terms (e.g., unlikely or probable), but numerical estimates are also common. Weather forecasters, for example, often report the probability of rain (Murphy, 1985), and economists are sometimes required to estimate the chances of recession (Zarnowitz, 1985). The theoretical and practical significance of subjective probability has inspired psychologists, philosophers, and statisticians to investigate this notion from both descriptive and prescriptive standpoints.

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Authors: Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J.
Affiliations: Stanford University (US)
ORCID: Koehler, Derek J.
Venue: Psychological Review
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 1994-10
Volume: 101
Issue: 4
Pages: 547-567
ISSN: 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
1939-1471
DOI: 10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547
OpenAlex: W2054875343
Cited by: 1,167
References: 1,090
Citations by year: 2026: 15 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 39 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 67 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 49 · 2013: 28 · 2012: 52
FWCI: 10.46
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Categorization, perception, and language
Keywords: subjective probability, support theory, subadditivity, alternative hypothesis, lower and upper probabilities, probability judgment, frequency judgment, belief revision

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability

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