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A dual system model of preferences under risk
Abstract
This article presents a dual system model (DSM) of decision making under risk and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) among others, the DSM incorporates (a) individual differences in disposition to rational versus emotional decision making, (b) the affective nature of outcomes, and (c) different task construals within its framework. The model has good descriptive validity and accounts for (a) violation of nontransparent stochastic dominance, (b) fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, (c) ambiguity aversion, (d) common consequence effect, (e) common ratio effect, (f) isolation effect, and (g) coalescing and event-splitting effects. The DSM is also used to make several novel predictions of conditions under which specific behavior patterns may or may not occur.
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“As with autonomic function, arousal states can habituate if the appetitive behaviors become routine, leading to less potent gratification and a dampening of mesolimbic dopamine response over time.”
From Assessment and treatment of compulsive sexual behavior disorder: a sexual medicine perspective (2024) · cites this paper as [92]
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“For the case of dual systems, the expected value associated to each possible decision is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the System 1 and System 2 (Mukherjee, 2010).”
MethodModeling Choice Paradoxes Under Risk: From Prospect Theories to Sampling-Based AccountsPreprint
Kellen, D., Steiner, M. D., Davis‐Stober, C. P., & Pappas, N. J. (2019) · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/qvcbk · Cited by 6
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“at deal of studies examine the relative impact of these two channels on decision making (see [11, 38] for a review) and, more recently, provide computational dual-system decision-making models (e.g., [24, 36]). Here we focus on applying the body of knowledge previously elaborated within the dual-system theory to devel…”
BackgroundMethodState dependent price setting rules under implicit thresholds: An experiment
LeBlanc, J. D., Civelli, A., DECK, C. A., & Bregu, K. (2016) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2016.04.004 · Cited by 3
“That is — real, explicit costs 1Similar models have also been developed by Fudenberg and Levine (2006) and Mukherjee (2010).”
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BackgroundThe Role of Education in Native Dutch Adolescents’ Muslim Population Size Perceptions
Mulders, A. M., & van Tubergen, F. (2022) · Journal of International Migration and Integration / Revue de l integration et de la migration internationale · doi:10.1007/s12134-022-00995-6 · Cited by 3
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“Such biases typically manifest as over-or underestimation of probabili - ties, selective attention to salient yet incomplete informa - tion, and a tendency to simplify or average complex data rather than integrate it comprehensively (Mukherjee, 2010; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974 ).”
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Why Medical Informatics (still) Needs Cognitive and Social Sciences
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Odell, A. M., Forney, A., Raglin, A. J., Basak, A., & Khooshabeh, P. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-13184-3_15
Sheffer, C. E., Proctor, M., Foinquinos, V., Lemos, R. F., Bickel, W. K., & Fields, S. A. (2026) · doi:10.2196/preprints.92201
Fu, H., Ma, X., Tan, Y., Xia, Z., & Guo, X. (2026) · Engineering Construction & Architectural Management · doi:10.1108/ecam-12-2024-1782
Sheffer, C. E., Proctor, M., Foinquinos, V., Lemos, R. F., Bickel, W. K., & Fields, S. A. (2026) · JMIR Research Protocols · doi:10.2196/92201
Metadata
- Authors
- Mukherjee, K.
- Affiliations
- INSEAD (SG)
- Corresponding author
- Mukherjee, Kanchan
- Venue
- Psychological Review
- Published
- 2010
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 243-255
- ISSN
- 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1471
- OpenAlex
- W1996734429
- Cited by
- 198
- References
- 104
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 6.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Centre for Decision Making and Risk Analysis
- INSEAD
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Keywords
- dual-process models, decision making under risk, decision making under uncertainty, dual-process theory, ambiguity aversion, common ratio effect, isolation effect, preference elicitation
- MeSH terms
- Affect, Attitude, Choice Behavior, Decision Making, Humans, Models, Psychological, Risk-Taking
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