The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Consequences of prejudice against the null hypothesis.
Abstract
The consequences of prejudice against accepting the null hypothesis were examined through (a) a mathematical model intended to stimulate the research-publication process and (b) case studies of apparent erroneous rejec-tions of the null hypothesis in published psychological research. The input parameters for the model characterize investigators ' probabilities of selecting a problem for which the null hypothesis is true, of reporting, following up on, or abandoning research when data do or do not reject the null hypothesis, and they characterize editors ' probabilities of publishing manuscripts concluding in favor of or against the null hypothesis. With estimates of the input parameters based on a questionnaire survey of a sample of social psychologists, the model output indicates a dysfunctional research-publication system. Particularly, the model indicates that there may be relatively few publications on problems for which the null hypothesis is (at least to a reasonable approximation) true, and of these, a high proportion will erroneously reject the null hypothesis. The case studies provide additional support for this conclusion. Accordingly, it is
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“The bias against negative results appears to be a consequence of both editors and reviewers finding them less compelling for publication and from authors themselves not trying to publish them 8-12”
From Initial evidence of research quality of registered reports compared with the standard publishing model (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“Positive results -- finding that a treatment is effective or that there is a relationship between two variables -- are more likely to be published than negative results 6-12 .”
From Initial evidence of research quality of registered reports compared with the standard publishing model (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“Theoretical analyses point to a system of incentives that prioritizes innovation over verification, leading to infrequent efforts to replicate findings and to behaviors that could reduce the replicability of published findings such as selective reporting, presenting exploratory findings as confirmatory tests, and failures of documentation, transparency, and sharing”
From Investigating the replicability of preclinical cancer biology (2021) · cites this paper as Greenwald, 1975
In the citing paper
“Research that produces novel results, statistically significant results (that is, typically p < 0.05) and seemingly 'clean' results is more likely to be published 2,3 .”
From Power failure: why small sample size undermines the reliability of neuroscience (2013) · cites this paper as [3]
In the citing paper
“An important qualification about this result is the possibility that the original studies have inflated effect sizes due to publication, selection, reporting, or other biases ( 9, 1223 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“Potentially problematic practices include selective reporting, selective analysis, and insufficient specification of the conditions necessary or sufficient to obtain the results ( 1223 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“There is good evidence that low power of research designs combined with publication bias favoring positive results over negative results produces a literature with upwardly biased effect sizes ( 14, 16, 30, 31 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“Concerns about reproducibility are widespread across disciplines ( 921 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
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“As Greenwald (1975) acknowledges, journals are biased against publishing articles which fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% alpha level.”
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“It is possible that researchers are frequently testing for the presence of interactions between traits but not including them in published work due to a general disinterest in and disinclination towards null findings in psychology (e.g., Ferguson & Brannick, 2012; Greenwald, 1975).”
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Scientific rigor and the art of motorcycle maintenance
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Assessing Publication Bias: a 7-Step User’s Guide with Best-Practice Recommendations
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Negativland - a home for all findings in psychology
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“Remarkably, Greenwald found that researchers were eight times more likely to submit a manuscript for publication if the results were positive rather than negative.”
BackgroundInfluentialResponse Heaping in Interviewer-Administered Surveys: Is It Really a Form of Satisficing?
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ResultEffect Sizes, Power, and Biases in Intelligence Research: A Meta-Meta-Analysis
Nuijten, M. B., van Assen, M. A. L. M., Augusteijn, H. E. M., Crompvoets, E. A. V., & Wicherts, J. M. (2020) · Journal of Intelligence · doi:10.3390/jintelligence8040036 · Cited by 42
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What Is Knowledge? Who Creates It? Who Possesses It? The Need for Novel Answers to Old Questions
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“Moreover, if (cid:2) is not corrected, Type I errors are more likely to be published, and these tend to linger, as subsequent replications will likely produce nonsignificant results, which will not be published (Greenwald, 1975).”
Do Victims of Injustice Punish to Improve Their Mood?
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“However, we believe that the present research represents one of the cases in which scientific advance is achieved by rejecting a theory (cf. Greenwald, 1975; Platt, 1964).”
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“The high proportion of significant findings replicates a well-documented bias in the published literature favouring significance 18,19,29,30 .”
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“Note that all cells in Table 1 sum up to 1 because we apply the concept of how plausible the null and alternative hypotheses are ( 0, 1), which are also called base rates in the literature (Greenwald, 1975; Nuzzo, 2014).”
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“This bias stems from the tendency to submit and/or publish studies with statistically significant results, rather than basing submission and publication decisions on the quality of the research (Greenwald, 1975; Orlitzky, 2012; Rosenthal, 1979).”
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“Publication bias (Rothstein, Sutton, & Borenstein, 2005) has been a well-known problem in psychology for several decades (e.g., Greenwald, 1975) and the replication crisis has raised awareness for the issue (e.g., Ferguson & Heene, 2012; Francis, 2012; Franco, Malhotra, & Simonovits, 2014;…”
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“Null findings, such as those observed in this study, are often seen as less important or meaningful than a significant (supportive) effect, but as Greenwald (1975) has argued, discrimination against accepting the null hypothesis is detrimental to research progress in science.”
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“The first wave of responses to the sense of crisis understandably focused on problems—many of which had been raised before and even repeatedly (Cohen, 1992; Greenwald, 1975; Maxwell, 2004; Rosenthal, 1979)—but which in this new context seemed more urgently and insistently to demand the field’s consideration.”
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“One of the main causes for this excess of significant effects seems to be publication bias: the phenomenon that statistically significant findings have a higher probability of being published than nonsignificant findings.(13) The evidence that the field of psychology is affected by publication bias is overwhelming.”
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Does the conclusion follow from the evidence? Recommendations for improving research
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“Probable Obstacles to Replication in the Electrocortical Field The bias against publishing nonsignificant results makes it extremely difficult to estimate the proportion of electrocortical results that are replicated at a specific level of analysis (i.e., the level of the electrode, component, and ERP quantification m…”
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“Significance testing is thus biased against the hypothesis being tested (Greenwald, 1975; Berger and Sellke, 1987).”
MethodImplications of the open science era for educational psychology research syntheses
Patall, E. A. (2021) · Educational Psychologist · doi:10.1080/00461520.2021.1897009 · Cited by 37
“In an early study on prejudice against the null hypothesis, Greenwald (1975) revealed that 41% of authors only submit a study for publication if statistically significant results are found and that null results are often interpreted as a failure of design, rather than an indication of the…”
BackgroundDifferenzielle Aspekte psychischer Beanspruchung aus Sicht der Zielorientierung
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“In spite of the nonsignificant statistical outcome and the existing prejudice against publishing results that do not reject the null hypothesis (Bakan, 1966; Greenwald, 1975), there are findings of interest and importance in these results.”
ResultBarriers to Creating KnowledgePreprint
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Revising Beliefs about the Merit of Unconscious Thought: Evidence in Favor of the Null Hypothesis
Newell, B. R., & Rakow, T. (2011) · Social Cognition · doi:10.1521/soco.2011.29.6.711 · Cited by 36
“Greenwald, A. G. (1993). Consequences of prejudice against the null hypothesis.”
BackgroundInfluentialSmith‐Crowe, K., Burke, M. J., Kouchaki, M., & Signal, S. M. (2012) · Organizational Research Methods · doi:10.1177/1094428112465898 · Cited by 33
“…interest, it will be necessary to specify a ‘‘null response range,’’ analogous to a null range with regard to a formal test of the null hypothesis (see Greenwald, 1975), to determine whether the observed pattern of responses, or the relative percentages of individuals within the respective…”
BackgroundTackett, J. L., & Miller, J. D. (2019) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/abn0000455 · Cited by 32
Bias in Meta-Analytic Estimates of the Absolute Efficacy of Psychotherapy
Staines, G. L., & Cleland, C. M. (2007) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/1089-2680.11.4.329 · Cited by 32
“Indeed, in his metameta-analysis of studies between 1980 and 1993, Grissom (1996) observed that metaanalysts rarely weighted studies by the inverse of sampling variance to obtain less variable estimates of ES.”
MethodResultNeufeld, R. W. J. (1976) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.33.5.632 · Cited by 32
Irreproducible text-book “knowledge”: The effects of color bands on zebra finch fitness
Wang, D., Forstmeier, W., Ihle, M., Khadraoui, M., Jerónimo, S., Martin, K., & Kempenaers, B. (2018) · Evolution · doi:10.1111/evo.13459 · Cited by 30
“Such selective reporting implies that the literature also contains a high proportion of false-positive claims (Greenwald 1975; Jennions and Moller 2002; Prinz et al. 2011; Button et al. 2013; Franco et al. 2014; Holman et al. 2016).”
BackgroundChalmers, I., & Dickersin, K. (2013) · F1000Research · doi:10.12688/f1000research.2-1.v1 · Cited by 35
Cairo, A. H., Green, J. D., Forsyth, D. R., Behler, A. M. C., & Raldiris, T. L. (2020) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167220903896 · Cited by 32
Meta-analysis and the study of group dynamics.
Mullen, B. D., Driskell, J. E., & Eduardo Salas, A. (1998) · Group Dynamics Theory Research and Practice · doi:10.1037//1089-2699.2.4.213 · Cited by 31
Beyond statistical inference: A decision theory for science
Kileen, P. R. (2006) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/bf03193962 · Cited by 30
“Balking would now occur for combinations of d and n that are too big to be trivial, yet too small to be valuable ( Greenwald, 1975; Greenwald, Gonzalez, Harris, & Guthrie, 1996).”
BackgroundFiedler, K., & Wänke, M. (2004) · Journal of Cultural and Evolutionary Psychology · doi:10.1556/jcep.2.2004.1-2.2 · Cited by 31
“We are aware of the sampling bias inherent in published research since decades (GREENWALD 1975), but even though the bias is well-known and easily located, we simply continue the available evidence at face value.”
BackgroundSmall sample failure of random assignment: A further examination.
Strube, M. (1991) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.59.2.346 · Cited by 31
Making Attributions for Behaviors: The Prevalence of Correspondence Bias in the General Population
Bauman, C. W., & Skitka, L. J. (2010) · Basic and Applied Social Psychology · doi:10.1080/01973533.2010.495654 · Cited by 30
“Nevertheless, we acknowledge the potential issues associated with interpreting null results, but we hope the results of the current study nonetheless contribute to the conversation in the literature and prompt further examination of the role of self-construal in correspondence bias (Greenwald, 1975).”
ResultUsing Meta-Analysis in Psychiatric Research
Streiner, D. L. (1991) · The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/070674379103600508 · Cited by 30
Evaluating Registered Reports: A Naturalistic Comparative Study of Article Impact
Hopun, L. T., Singleton Thorn, F., Nosek, B. A., & Errington, T. M. (2017) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/5y8w7 · Cited by 29
Negative Results: Conceptual and Methodological Dimensions in Single-Case Intervention Research
Kratochwill, T. R., Levin, J. R., & Horner, R. H. (2017) · Remedial and Special Education · doi:10.1177/0741932517741721 · Cited by 31
“Such a scientific culture has created a “publication bias” (e.g., Ferguson & Heene, 2012; Greenwald, 1975), and it is increasingly recognized that this circumstance has deleterious effects on science (Pashler & Wagenmakers, 2012), could promote academic misconduct (Fanelli, 2012), and, notably,…”
BackgroundInfluentialPre-registration and Results-Free Review in Observational and Qualitative Research
Jacobs, A. M. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108762519.009 · Cited by 30
Bundling Effects on Variety Seeking for Digital Information Goods
Adomavičius, G., Bockstedt, J. C., & Curley, S. P. (2015) · Journal of Management Information Systems · doi:10.1080/07421222.2014.1001266 · Cited by 29
“Although this is inconsistent with typical experimental reporting, in this case we argue the importance of the null results, an argument made more generally by Greenwald [18].”
ResultMunk, A., & Pflüger, R. (1999) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1999.10473883 · Cited by 29
JOHNSON, D. D. P., Baker, S., Morecroft, M. D., & Macdonald, D. W. (2001) · BMC Ecology · doi:10.1186/1472-6785-1-2 · Cited by 28
“The consequences of this should not be understated, the effect has been demonstrated in both surveys [ 50 ] and an empirical study comparing significance levels in published and non-published studies of the same topic [51].”
ResultNeoplasm and Traumatic Events in Childhood
Duszynski, K. R. (1981) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1981.01780280095011 · Cited by 29
Metadata
- Authors
- Greenwald, A. G.
- Affiliations
- The Ohio State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Greenwald, Anthony G.
- Venue
- Psychological Bulletin
- Published
- 1975-01
- Volume
- 82
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-20
- ISSN
- 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1455
- OpenAlex
- W2116618538
- Cited by
- 1,022
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 49 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 35 · 2012: 32
- FWCI
- 20.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Keywords
- null hypothesis, publication bias, editorial decision-making, social psychology
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