The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Consequences of prejudice against the null hypothesis.
Abstract
The consequences of prejudice against accepting the null hypothesis were examined through (a) a mathematical model intended to stimulate the research-publication process and (b) case studies of apparent erroneous rejec-tions of the null hypothesis in published psychological research. The input parameters for the model characterize investigators ' probabilities of selecting a problem for which the null hypothesis is true, of reporting, following up on, or abandoning research when data do or do not reject the null hypothesis, and they characterize editors ' probabilities of publishing manuscripts concluding in favor of or against the null hypothesis. With estimates of the input parameters based on a questionnaire survey of a sample of social psychologists, the model output indicates a dysfunctional research-publication system. Particularly, the model indicates that there may be relatively few publications on problems for which the null hypothesis is (at least to a reasonable approximation) true, and of these, a high proportion will erroneously reject the null hypothesis. The case studies provide additional support for this conclusion. Accordingly, it is
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“The bias against negative results appears to be a consequence of both editors and reviewers finding them less compelling for publication and from authors themselves not trying to publish them 8-12”
From Initial evidence of research quality of registered reports compared with the standard publishing model (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“Positive results -- finding that a treatment is effective or that there is a relationship between two variables -- are more likely to be published than negative results 6-12 .”
From Initial evidence of research quality of registered reports compared with the standard publishing model (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“Theoretical analyses point to a system of incentives that prioritizes innovation over verification, leading to infrequent efforts to replicate findings and to behaviors that could reduce the replicability of published findings such as selective reporting, presenting exploratory findings as confirmatory tests, and failures of documentation, transparency, and sharing”
From Investigating the replicability of preclinical cancer biology (2021) · cites this paper as Greenwald, 1975
In the citing paper
“Research that produces novel results, statistically significant results (that is, typically p < 0.05) and seemingly 'clean' results is more likely to be published 2,3 .”
From Power failure: why small sample size undermines the reliability of neuroscience (2013) · cites this paper as [3]
In the citing paper
“An important qualification about this result is the possibility that the original studies have inflated effect sizes due to publication, selection, reporting, or other biases ( 9, 1223 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“Potentially problematic practices include selective reporting, selective analysis, and insufficient specification of the conditions necessary or sufficient to obtain the results ( 1223 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“There is good evidence that low power of research designs combined with publication bias favoring positive results over negative results produces a literature with upwardly biased effect sizes ( 14, 16, 30, 31 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“Concerns about reproducibility are widespread across disciplines ( 921 ).”
From Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science (2015) · cites this paper as [16]
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“…as well as a wide selection of institutional archives through BASE, we should nevertheless check for bias as statistically significant findings are more likely to be reported than null results (Dickersin, 2005; Greenwald, 1975; Pigott, Valentine, Polanin, Williams, & Canada, 2013; Rosenthal, 1979).”
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PUBLICATION BIAS: THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS?
Torgerson, C. (2006) · British Journal of Educational Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8527.2006.00332.x · Cited by 178
“…greater proportion of statistically significant negative or null results not to be published (Begg and Berlin, 1988; Dickersin, 1997, 2002; Dickersin et al ., 1987; Fitz-Gibbon, 2004; Greenwald, 1975; Hedges and Olkin, 1980; Iyengar and Greenhouse, 1988; Light and Pillemer, 1984; Rosenthal, 1979).”
BackgroundMethodDeWall, C. N., Baumeister, R. F., Chester, D. S., & Bushman, B. J. (2015) · Emotion Review · doi:10.1177/1754073915572690 · Cited by 177
“First, published articles are likely to have more significant effects than unpublished reports due to prejudice against the null hypothesis (Greenwald, 1975).”
BackgroundDiscovery-oriented psychotherapy research: Rationale, aims, and methods.
Mahrer, A. R. (1988) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037//0003-066x.43.9.694 · Cited by 176
The Significance of Statistical Significance Tests in Marketing Research
Sawyer, A. G., & Peter, J. P. (1983) · Journal of Marketing Research · doi:10.1177/002224378302000203 · Cited by 175
Research on scientific journals: Implications for editors and authors
Armstrong, J. S. (1982) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.3980010109 · Cited by 174
“Greenwald (1975), using a survey of reviewers for a journal, found a bias favoring papers that rejected the null hypothesis.”
The unanticipated resilience of trait self-knowledge in the face of neural damage
Klein, S. B., & Lax, M. L. (2010) · Memory · doi:10.1080/09658211.2010.524651 · Cited by 178
“Since the findings so far described are all null, at least two possible interpretations of the data suggest themselves (e.g., Greenwald, 1975).”
BackgroundCrowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results.
Landy, J. F., Jia, M. (., Ding, I. L., Viganola, D., Tierney, W., Dreber, A., Johannesson, M., Pfeiffer, T., Ebersole, C. R., Gronau, Q. F., et al. (2020) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/bul0000220 · Cited by 168
“…no t t o b e d i ss e m i n a t e d b r o a d l y . positive or statistically significant findings, leaving negative and null results underreported (Greenwald, 1975; Ioannidis, 2005; Io-annidis & Trikalinos, 2007; Pfeiffer, Bertram, & Ioannidis, 2011; Rosenthal, 1979; Schimmack, 2012; Simonsohn,…”
Reconceptualizing replication as a sequence of different studies: A replication typology
Hüffmeier, J., Mazei, J., & Schultze, T. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2015.09.009 · Cited by 177
A historical review of publication bias
Marks‐Anglin, A., & Chen, Y. (2020) · Research Synthesis Methods · doi:10.1002/jrsm.1452 · Cited by 165
“In 1975, Greenwald produced a condemning review of prevailing cultural attitudes on the null hypothesis among behavioral scientists, including the belief that only findings that rejected the null could advance science, while a null result only conferred uncertainty.(17) Indeed, the popularization of P values(18) in th…”
BackgroundEffect of positive findings on submission and acceptance rates: A note on meta-analysis bias.
Coursol, A., & Wagner, E. E. (1986) · Professional Psychology Research and Practice · doi:10.1037/0735-7028.17.2.136 · Cited by 165
How automatic are social judgments?
Winter, L., Uleman, J. S., & Cunniff, C. (1985) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.49.4.904 · Cited by 166
“usual, is justifiable (Greenwald, 1975).”
A Process Dissociation Approach to Objective-Projective Test Score Interrelationships
Bornstein, R. F. (2002) · Journal of Personality Assessment · doi:10.1207/s15327752jpa7801_04 · Cited by 166
“Although nonsignificant findings by themselves may have little heuristic value because of underlying interpretive ambiguities (cf. Greenwald, 1975), the validity and utility of a psychological assessment instrument can only be evaluated rigorously when predicted nonrelationships are assessed…”
BackgroundAssessing Investor Response to Information Events Using Return and Volume Metrics
Cready, W. M., & Hurtt, D. N. (2002) · The Accounting Review · doi:10.2308/accr.2002.77.4.891 · Cited by 164
“However, Kandel and Pearson (1995) find that approximately 10 percent of their sample of earnings announcements stimulate no significant price movement in the three days around the earnings announcement date.”
BackgroundMethodPower Posing: P- Curving the Evidence
Simmons, J. P., & Simonsohn, U. (2017) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797616658563 · Cited by 179
“Statistically significant results are more likely to be published than results that are not significant (Greenwald, 1975; Rosenthal, 1979; Sterling, 1959; Sterling, Rosenbaum, & Weinkam, 1995).”
BackgroundTesting for Publication Bias in Political Science
Gerber, A. S., GREEN, D. P., & Nickerson, D. W. (2001) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a004877 · Cited by 162
“Editors and referees look askance at papers that report insignificant findings (Mahoney 1977), and their reputation for doing so creates the “file-drawer problem”— researchers elect not to submit their findings when their research fails to reject the null hypothesis (Iyengar and Greenhouse 1988; Greenwald 1975).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Greenwald, A. G.
- Affiliations
- The Ohio State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Greenwald, Anthony G.
- Venue
- Psychological Bulletin
- Published
- 1975-01
- Volume
- 82
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-20
- ISSN
- 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1455
- OpenAlex
- W2116618538
- Cited by
- 1,022
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 49 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 35 · 2012: 32
- FWCI
- 20.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Keywords
- null hypothesis, publication bias, editorial decision-making, social psychology
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