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El Niño Southern Oscillation and tuna in the western Pacific

Lehodey, P., Bertignac, M., Hampton, J., Lewis, A., Picaut, J.·1997·Nature

DOI 10.1038/39575

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Background
THE IMPACT OF OCEANOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS CHANGES ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF SKIPJACK TUNA Katsuwonus pelamis IN MAKASSAR STRAIT
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Background
Policy interactions in large‐scale marine protected areas
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“The effects of environmental variability on the abundance of fish stocks are evident not only on a regional scale (such as changes in regional sea surface temperature [14, 17]) but also on a larger scale (such as those due to El Niño and La Niña events [18, 19]).”
Background
Relationships between CPUE fluctuation of southern bluefin tuna and ocean temperature variability in the Central Indian Ocean
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“…an area of interest because this highly productive region supports one of the world’s largest industrial fisheries (Thorpe et al. 2000) and is periodically affected by the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) event, which causes a breakdown of these fisheries (Lehody et al. 1997, Chavez et al. 1999).”
Background
Impact of increasing sea surface temperature on skipjack tuna habitat in the Flores Sea, Indonesia
Putri, A. R. S., Zainuddin, M., Musbir, M., Mustapha, M. A., Hidayat, R., & Putri, R. S. (2021) · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/763/1/012012 · Cited by 6
Is Environmental Uncertainty Redefining Fishing Strategies? The Use of the Traditional Lunar Calendar to Allocate Fishing Effort in Ende, Eastern Indonesia
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“…distri - bution due to warming (English et al., 2022 ), allowing regional ocean condition indices to cause a density response that varies spatially (Lehodey et al., 1997; Thorson, 2019 ), and modelling the cumulative effect of temperature on the emergence of aphids by allowing temperature at…”
Abrupt shift of El Niño periodicity under CO 2 mitigation
Iwakiri, T., Kug, J., Jin, F., Zhao, S., An, S., Kim, G.-I., & Park, D. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2426048122 · Cited by 4
“El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) swings over the equatorial Pacific, is one of the largest interannual climate variability in the present climate, affecting global Earth system ( 23 – 26 ).”
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“Furthermore, ocean acidification caused by climate change makes it harder for BET to find and consume prey, leading to further population decline (Lehodey et al., 1997, 2008; Eyduran et al., 2020).”
Variation in Eastern Little Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) catches related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Makassar Strait
Syamsuddin, M., Puspita, A., Syamsudin, F., Ihsan, Y., Sunarto, & Zainuddin, M. (2023) · IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environment · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1289/1/012007 · Cited by 5
“It has been established that the ENSO cycle causes warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases that have an impact on the Pacific Ocean’s tuna fishing yields [9, 10].”
Background
Size-specific spatiotemporal dynamics of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) caught by the longline fishery in the eastern Paciﬁc Ocean
Satoh, K., Xu, H., Minte‐Vera, C. V., Maunder, M. N., & Kitakado, T. (2021) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2021.106065 · Cited by 6
Spatiotemporal pattern analysis of potential light seine fishing areas in the East China sea using VIIRS day/night band imagery
Luo, L., Kang, M., Guo, J., Zhuang, Y., Liu, Z., Wang, Y., & Zou, L. (2018) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431161.2018.1524605 · Cited by 7
“The geometric barycenter of each fishing area (April 2012 to December 2016) was calculated by the grey weighted method (Lehodey et al., 1997), in which each point was assigned a weight based on the associated grey value.”
Method
Vertical Distribution of Juvenile Skipjack Tuna Katsuwonus pelamis in The Tropical Western Pacific Ocean
Tanabe, T., Kiyofuji, H., Shimizu, Y., & Ogura, M. (2017) · Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly JARQ · doi:10.6090/jarq.51.181 · Cited by 5
Safeguarding the future of oceanic fisheries under climate change depends on timely preparation
Salinger, J., & Hobday, A. J. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0609-z · Cited by 6
Fisheries and Management
Isaac, V., do Espírito-Santo, R. V., & saint-Paul, U. (2010) · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-13457-9_15 · Cited by 5
Quota Allocation Policies in U.S. Federal Fisheries Management and Implications for Climate Resilience
Free, C. M., Kitchel, Z. J., Seeley, M., & Shields, A. R. (2025) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.70000 · Cited by 5
“During the La Niña phase of ENSO, the catch is concentrated in the west, whereas during the El Niño phase, the catch is concentrated in the east (Lehodey et al., 1997).”
Land and sea-based observations and first satellite tracking results support a New Ireland breeding site for the Critically Endangered Beck’s Petrel Pseudobulweria beckii
Rayner, M. J., Baird, K. A., Bird, J. P., Cranwell, S., Raine, A. F., MAUL, B., Kuri, J., Zhang, J., & Gaskin, C. P. (2019) · Bird Conservation International · doi:10.1017/s0959270919000145 · Cited by 11
Effects of Climate-induced Variation in the Catch Distribution and Biological Characteristics of Skipjack Tuna Katsuwonus pelamis in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean
Kim, E.-J., Moon, D., & Kim, S. (2015) · Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.5657/kfas.2015.0489 · Cited by 3
“Gj = ∑iLi(Cij/Eij)/∑i(Cij/Eij) (Eq.”
Influential
Influence of Climatic Conditions on the Time Series Fluctuation of Yellowfin Tuna Thunnus albacares in the South Pacific Ocean
Singh, A. A., Suzuki, N., & Sakuramoto, K. (2015) · Open Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.4236/ojms.2015.53020 · Cited by 6
“The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which is related to El Niño and La Niña events has also been shown to be related to skipjack tuna stock and yellowfin tuna catch time series [8] [9] [13]-[15].”
Background
Effects of Changes in Sea Surface Temperature on Fluctuation in Larval Anchovy Resources in Coastal Waters of Taiwan
Hsia, K.-Y., Lee, K.-T., Liao, C.-H., & Wang, J. (2004) · doi:10.29822/jfst.200406.0005 · Cited by 4
Biological characteristics of the hydrological landscapes in the Bay of Biscay in spring 2009
Lezama-Ochoa, A., Grados, D., Lebourges-Dhaussy, A., Irigoien, X., Chaigneau, A., & Bertrand, A. (2015) · doi:10.1111/fog.12090 · Cited by 4
Pressures On Rural Coasts in the Asia-Pacific Region
Talaue-mcmanus, L. (2006) · doi:10.1007/1-4020-3628-0_8 · Cited by 4
Spatial Heterogeneity-Based Explainable Machine Learning Methods—Modeling the Relationship Between Yellowfin Tuna Fishery Resources and the Environment in the Pacific Ocean
Hua, Z.-J., Yang, X.-M., Li, M., Feng, S., & Zhu, J.-F. (2025) · Fishes · doi:10.3390/fishes10080417 · Cited by 3
Increasing Sea Surface Temperatures Driving Widespread Tropicalization in South Atlantic Pelagic Fisheries
Sant’Ana, R., Tha, D., Henry, L., Schroeder, R., & Pérez, J. Á. Á. (2025) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology14081039 · Cited by 4
“Environmental variability, particularly ocean warming, has exerted global effects on the spatial distribution, migratory phenology, and population dynamics of highly migratory pelagic species such as tunas, swordfish, billfishes, and sharks [79–82].”
The Impact of Marine Heatwaves on Isotherm Displacement and Tuna Distribution in Vanuatu
Weinberg, H., Bhardwaj, J., Watkins, A., & Kuleshov, Y. (2024) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli12110181 · Cited by 5
Assessing the drift of fish aggregating devices in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Frankemölle, P. F. V. W., Nooteboom, P., Phillips, J. S., Escalle, L., Nicol, S., & van Sebille, E. (2024) · Ocean Science (OS) · doi:10.5194/os-20-31-2024 · Cited by 3
“Lehodey et al., 1997; Lehodey, 2001; Lu et al., 2001; Kumar et al., 2014; OFP-SPC, 2021), the impact of ENSO on the temporal variability of dFAD dispersion in the tropical Pacific Ocean is unknown.”
Comparison of nominal and standardized catch per unit effort data in quantifying habitat suitability of skipjack tuna in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
Zhou, C., Hu, Y., Cao, J., Xu, L., Wang, X., Wan, R., Xiao, Y., Zhu, J., & Tang, H. (2022) · Acta Oceanologica Sinica · doi:10.1007/s13131-021-1922-z · Cited by 5
“In the western Pacific, the 29°C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm is considered to provide reasonable proxy for the movement of tuna populations (Lehodey et al., 1997).”
BackgroundInfluential
Short-term change in fish assemblages after the passage of a typhoon in a temperate, coastal bay
Yagi, M. (2021) · Acta Ichthyologica et Piscatoria · doi:10.3897/aiep.51.63622 · Cited by 3
Identification of Commercial Tuna Hotspot in the Southern Waters of Java-Bali Through Satellite Remote Sensing Data
Setiawati, M. D., Rachman, H. A., As-syakur, A. R., & Syahailatua, A. (2021) · IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · doi:10.1109/igarss47720.2021.9553523 · Cited by 4
“Also, Lehodey et al., 1997 reported that spatial shifts in skipjack tuna distribution are highly related to ENSO events [5].”
Background
Fine-scale Vertical Movements and Behavior of Immature Skipjack Tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) off Eastern Taiwan
Chiang, W.-C., Matsumoto, T., Lin, S.-J., Chang, Q.-X., Musyl, M., Ho, Y.-S., & Ohta, F. (2021) · Journal of Marine Science and Technology · doi:10.51400/2709-6998.1082 · Cited by 3
Variations in macrobenthic community at two stations in the southern Yellow Sea and relation to climate variability (2000–2013)
Xu, Y., Sui, J., Li, X., Wang, H.-F., & Zhang, B.-L. (2018) · doi:10.1080/14634988.2018.1429785 · Cited by 3
“It has been reported that the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the western equatorial Pacific was closely related to SOI (Lehodey et al., 1997).”
Background
Fleets, Sites, and Conservation Goals
Miller, K., Golubtsov, P., & Mckelvey, R. (2011) · doi:10.1002/9781444392241.ch4 · Cited by 3
A review of yellowfin tuna ecology in a changing ocean: Synthesis of habitat dynamics, oceanographic influences, and climate impacts (1963–2023)
Srioktoviana, S. K., Zainuddin, M., Hidayat, R., Yuniar, A., Farhum, A., Safruddin, Mustapha, M. A., Abudarda, A. R. F., & Ridwan, M. (2026) · Regional Studies in Marine Science · doi:10.1016/j.rsma.2026.104830 · Cited by 2
Population Dynamics and Body Size Structure of the Antarctic Krill Euphausia superba in the Bransfield Strait and South Shetland Islands
Zhao, G.-Q., Li, S., Yang, J.-L., Zhang, G., Xu, B., Liu, H., Rao, X., Lian, P., Huang, H.-L., & Li, L.-Z. (2025) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology14111561 · Cited by 2
“This spatially explicit metric, calculated through the following equation, enables systematic tracking of fishery resource distribution patterns [46]: where X i and Y i represent the latitude and longitude of each fishing net, X w and Y w represents the coordinates of the center of the fishing…”
Highly mobile pelagic species co‐occur with fine‐scale ocean fronts
Lhériau‐Nice, A., Cook, D. G., & Penna, A. D. (2025) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.1002/lno.70083 · Cited by 2
“However, previous work points out that ﬁ shing effort in a given region is often associated with temperature, whether it is to follow the ﬁ sh populations (Cheung et al. 2021) or through the use of temperature gradient to determine an ideal ﬁ shing location (Lehodey et al. 1997; Watson et al. 2018).”
Karakteristik Tinggi Gelombang Laut di Perairan Halmahera Utara dan Morotai pada Periode Waktu ENSO Tahun 2012-2021
Mudho, H. T., Azies, I., Setiyadi, J., Kisnarti, E. A., & Pranowo, W. S. (2025) · Jurnal Kelautan Tropis · doi:10.14710/jkt.v28i1.25192 · Cited by 2
“…peramalan curah hujan (Shukla & Paolino, 1983), identifikasi frekuensi kebakaran hutan (Swetnam & Betancourt, 1990), penyebaran penyakit, manajemen produksi agrikultur (Adiku & Stone, 1995), stok dan populasi ikan (Lehodey et al ., 1997), prediksi kekeringan dan aliran sungai (Chiew et al ., 1998).”
Navigating large scale ocean science in a Pacific small island developing state
Claassens, L., Hernández, C. M., Biondi, P., Jaskiel, J. E., Karanassos, C. M., Mesengei, M., Nestor, V., Otto, E. I., Renguul, H., Rotjan, R., et al. (2024) · Pacific Conservation Biology · doi:10.1071/pc24062 · Cited by 2
Evidence to inform spatiotemporal management of a western Pacific Ocean tuna purse seine fishery
Gilman, E. L., Chaloupka, M. Y., Posanau, N., Hidalgo, M., Pokajam, S., Papaol, D., Nanguromo, A., & Poisson, F. (2024) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.3054 · Cited by 2
Using historical catch flexibility and fishing ground mobility as measures of the adaptive capacity of fishing communities to future ocean change
Selden, R. L., Kitchel, Z. J., Coleman, K., Calzada, L., & Martin, K. S. (2024) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsae139 · Cited by 2
Spatial and temporal variation of biomass density beneath drifting fish‐aggregating devices in the western and central Pacific Ocean
Zhang, T.-J., Xin, J., Song, L.-M., & Yuan, H.-C. (2024) · Fisheries Management and Ecology · doi:10.1111/fme.12711 · Cited by 2
A multi-decadal assessment of social thresholds and outcomes in marine social-ecological systems in Hawaiʻi
Perng, L. Y., Leong, K. M., Weijerman, M., & Oleson, K. L. L. (2024) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106141 · Cited by 2
Pola Musim Penangkapan Ikan Cakalang Di Teluk Bone Berdasarkan Data Time Series Pada Tempat Pendaratan Ikan Di Lappa, Sinjai, Sulawesi Selatan
Zainuddin, M., Safruddin, S., Hidayat, S., & Farhum, A. (2017) · doi:10.20956/jipsp.v3i5.1944 · Cited by 2
Estimasi potensi dan pemetaan zona potensi penangkapan ikan tuna di Laut Flores: Perspektif penginderaan jauh dan sistem informasi geografis [Estimating total allowable catch and mapping potential fishing zones for tuna in the Flores Sea: A remote sensing-geographic information system perspective]
Zainuddin, M., Selamat, M. B., Ridwan, M., Hidayat, S., & Mallawa, A. (2017) · doi:10.32491/jii.v15i2.67 · Cited by 2
“Kondisi SPL demikian merupakan faktor penting yang memengaruhi kelimpahan ikan tuna (Lehodey et al. 1997 dan Zagalia et al. 2004).”
Background
Civil Conflict, Crowding-Out Effects and World Fisheries, 1952–2004Preprint
Hendrix, C. S., & Glaser, S. M. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1656689 · Cited by 1
Challenges to coping strategies in Agrometeorology: The Southwest Pacific
Salinger, J. (2007) · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-72746-0_7 · Cited by 2
Deep learning-based chlorophyll prediction: comparison with a dynamic model and applications to fish catch forecasting
Park, J.-S., Park, J.-Y., Ham, Y.-G., Kim, J.-H., & Jeon, W. (2026) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-17-795-2026 · Cited by 1
“…were found in the Paciﬁc Central-American Coastal LME (LME 11) for South American pilchard (Sardinops sagax) and skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), both of which are known to respond sensitively to ENSO-driven productivity ﬂuctuations in convergence zones (Lehodey et al., 1997; Kim et al., 2020).”
Enhancing the contribution of industrial tuna fisheries to food security: a case study from Solomon Islands
Fatai, D., Andrew, N. L., Aqorau, T., Bell, J., & Brewer, T. (2026) · Environmental Research Food Systems · doi:10.1088/2976-601x/ae55a5 · Cited by 3
“…to year was broadly correlated with changes in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), with the larger catches of skipjack tuna generally occurring when the SOI was positive, and the lower catches when the SOI was negative (figure 2), as frequently observed for locations in the western WCPO [33, 34].”
ENSO modulates aerobic habitat across varying hypoxia tolerance levels in the Southeast Pacific throughout the twenty-first century
Parouffe, A., Dewitte, B., Paulmier, A., & Garcon, V. C. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-06498-5 · Cited by 2
“Impacts on fishery dynamics of commercially important species 5–12 , aquaculture and human societies 13,14 have been widely accounted for.”
Exploring spatiotemporal non-stationarity of the marine environmental impact on skipjack fishery under different climate conditions in the Western and Central Pacific
Wang, Y., Yang, X., & Zhu, J. (2025) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2025.107398 · Cited by 5
Variability of Autumn Tropical Pacific Yellowfin Tuna Tied to the Spring North Atlantic Tripole
Zhang, G., & Li, J. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2024gl114459 · Cited by 1
“In the Pacific, for instance, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been linked to east‐west migrations of skipjack tuna by modulating the position of the convergence zone between the warm pool and cold tongue regions (Lehodey et al., 1997).”
Karakter Tinggi Gelombang Laut di Laut Natuna Pada Periode Waktu ENSO (Tahun 2012 s/d 2022)
Azhari, F., Pranowo, W. S., Hendra, H., & Umam, C. (2023) · BULETIN OSEANOGRAFI MARINA · doi:10.14710/buloma.v13i1.54992
“…(Swetnam & Betancourt., 1990), penyebaran penyakit (Bi et al ., 2005), Manajemen produksi agrikultur (Adiku & Stone, 1995), stok dan populasi ikan (Lehodey et al ., 1997), prediksi kekeringan dan aliran sungai (Chiew et al ., 1998), Namun pada penelitian ini lebih menitik beratkan pembahasan pada…”
Background
Identification of Fishing State of Purse Seine Fishing Vessels Based on Multi-Indices
Xu, Z., Wang, J., Zhou, C., Lin, L., Chen, X., & Li, B. (2023) · Journal of Ocean University of China · doi:10.1007/s11802-023-5550-4 · Cited by 3
“Lehodey et al .”
ENSO drives lateral separation of FAD-associated skipjack and bigeye tuna in the Western Tropical PacificPreprint
Leung, S., Mislan, K. A. S., & Thompson, L. (2020) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.06.25.170613 · Cited by 1
HALMAHERA EDDY DISPLACEMENT IN RELATION TO PRODUCTIVITY SKIPJACK IN SURROUNDING WATERS
Harsono, G., Supartono, S., Manurung, D., Atmadipoera, A., Syamsudin, F., & Baskoro, M. (2015) · doi:10.24319/jtpk.5.145-152 · Cited by 1
“Meskipun perairannya termasuk dalam kategori oligotropik, namun kondisinya sangat kontras dengan produktivitas perikanannya (Lehodey et al. 1997; Messie & Radenac 2006).”
Background
The fishing characteristics of Korean tuna purse seine fishery in the Pacific Ocean
Lee, M. K., Lee, S. I., Kim, Z., Ku, J., Park, H., & Yoon, S. (2015) · doi:10.3796/ksft.2015.51.3.414 · Cited by 1
PERGERAKAN ZONA KONVERGENSI DI SAMUDERA PASIFIK BAGIAN BARAT BERDASARKAN DATA INSITU DAN SATELIT
Hamzah, F., Susilo, E., Triyulianti, I., & Setiawan, A. (2015) · Jurnal Kelautan Nasional · doi:10.15578/jkn.v10i2.6159 · Cited by 1
“Lehodey et al. (1997), menyatakan pergerakan kolam air hangat di Samudera Pasifik bagian Barat mempengaruhi kelimpahan ikan Cakalang (Katsuwonus pelamis) di Perairan Indonesia bagian Timur.”
Influential

Authors: Lehodey, P., Bertignac, M., Hampton, J., Lewis, A., & Picaut, J.
Affiliations: Pacific Community (NC)
Corresponding author: Lehodey, P.
ORCID: Lehodey, P.
Bertignac, M.
Hampton, J.
Lewis, A.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 1997-10
Volume: 389
Issue: 6652
Pages: 715-718
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/39575
OpenAlex: W1662882894
Cited by: 494
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 22 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 24 · 2012: 22
FWCI: 8.68
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: European Commission
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Keywords: ENSO, skipjack tuna, western Pacific warm pool, tuna distribution, equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperature

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