Policy: Climate advisers must maintain integrity
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Climate modeling is often an exercise in 'betting on the best case'.
“Climate modeling is often an exercise in 'betting on the best case' (Geden, 2015; Jehn et al., 2021).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Geden, 2015
In POLITICAL WEATHER, Geden says mitigation scenarios are becoming more optimistic and less plausible, and describes models relying on unproven negative-emissions approaches. That supports the 'betting on the best case' characterization for mitigation modeling, but the claim extends it to climate modeling generally. (LLM, conf=0.83)
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- Authors
- Geden, O.
- Affiliations
- Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Geden, Oliver
- ORCID
- Geden, Oliver
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2015-05-06
- Volume
- 521
- Issue
- 7550
- Pages
- 27-28
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2036371971
- Cited by
- 109
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 2
- FWCI
- 32.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Sustainable Development
- Keywords
- climate policy, science advisers, integrity, climate change negotiations, science-policy interface
- MeSH terms
- Congresses as Topic, Paris, Policy Making, Politics, Temperature, Climate Change, Environmental Policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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