Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)
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If a virtual museum's success is measured in clicks or time spent, designers will instrumentally tweak it for those metrics, possibly at the expense of contemplative engagement.
“If a virtual museum's success is measured in clicks or time spent, designers will instrumentally tweak it for those metrics, possibly at the expense of contemplative engagement.”
From Virtual Museums as Meaning-Modeling Systems in Digital Heritage (2025) · cites this paper as [70]
Cites
Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19
The RECOVERY Collaborative Group (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2021436 · Cited by 11,477 · see citing works
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Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays
Ramsey, F. P. (2013) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315887814 · Cited by 2,004 · see citing works
Hacking, I. (2006) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511817557 · Cited by 1,029 · see citing works
Smithson, M. J. (1989) · Cognitive science · doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-3628-3 · Cited by 478 · see citing works
Scoring Rules and the Inevitability of Probability
Lindley, D. V. (1982) · International Statistical Review · doi:10.2307/1402448 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
Frank Ramsey: A Sheer Excess of Powers
Weber, R. (2021) · Contributions to Political Economy · doi:10.1093/cpe/bzab012 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
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Virtual Museums as Meaning-Modeling Systems in Digital Heritage
Guan, H., Chen, P., & Kwon, C. L. (2025) · Heritage · doi:10.3390/heritage8110484 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“Attempts to measure the effectiveness of such transmission scientifically only reflect the model constructed by the transmitters themselves [70].”
Spaceborne and spaceborn: Physiological aspects of pregnancy and birth during interplanetary flight
Holden, A. V. (2025) · Experimental Physiology · doi:10.1113/ep092290 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Mean–variance optimization in volatile markets: Uncertainty vs. randomness
Huang, X., Meng, X., Sun, Y., & Matoušek, R. (2025) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2025.131088 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
The future of mathematical oncology in the age of AI
Rockne, R. C., Andersen, M., Anderson, A. R. A., Basanta, D., Bentivegna, A., Benzekry, S., Branciamore, S., Brüningk, S. C., Conte, M., Farahpour, F., et al. (2026) · npj Systems Biology and Applications · doi:10.1038/s41540-026-00656-9 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Moral Perception and Uncertainty Expression in LLM-Augmented Judicial Practice
Delacroix, S. (2025) · Minds and Machines · doi:10.1007/s11023-025-09744-x · Cited by 5 · see citing works
On the microscopic origin of thermodynamics and kinetics. Status and prospects
Zakharov, A. Y. (2025) · Physics Letters A · doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2025.130227 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Information-Weight Interpretation of Probability: A Novel Information-Theoretic PerspectivePreprint
Huang, H. (2025) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202508.1430.v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Random Variables Aren’t Random
Vos, P. W. (2025) · Mathematics · doi:10.3390/math13050775
Finrow, B. (2025) · Military Medicine · doi:10.1093/milmed/usaf152
The Scylla and Charybdis of Intelligence: Compression Versus Complication
Wallace, R. (2025) · Studies in computational intelligence · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-95207-4_8
Chen, W., & Huang, S. (2025) · Chaos Solitons & Fractals · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117257
A Future for SSM - New Solutions for Old Problems
James, R. (2026) · Systemic Practice and Action Research · doi:10.1007/s11213-025-09751-0
Beyond neutral trials in critical care: embracing statistical alternatives
Neto, A. S., Walker, H. G. M., Brown, A., Udy, A. A., Bailey, M., & Marschner, I. C. (2026) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1093/ajrccm/aamaf114
Wimmer, A.-K., & Jeanrenaud, Y. (2026) · Postdisciplinary studies in discourse · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-07761-5_11
Classical Lottery in Action: Quantifying Risk and Evaluating Uncertainty
Li, J., Tsetlin, I., & Wang, F. (2026) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2023.04202
Fu, J.-L., & Lang, W.-X. (2026) · Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica English Series · doi:10.1007/s10255-026-0104-3
Uncertainty, probability and causality in hepatology
Laevens, B. P. M., Pijpers, F. P., & Schneider, C. V. (2026) · npj gut and liver. · doi:10.1038/s44355-026-00080-0
Uncertain dominance degree: a new decision criterion under uncertainty theory
Huang, X., & Sun, Y. (2026) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1080/01605682.2026.2733798
Künstliche Intelligenz in der qualitativen Forschung – technische und methodologische Grundlagen
Jeanrenaud, Y. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-51515-7_2
- Authors
- Spiegelhalter, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Spiegelhalter, David
- ORCID
- Spiegelhalter, David
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2024-12-16
- Volume
- 636
- Issue
- 8043
- Pages
- 560-563
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4405419745
- Cited by
- 19
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 10
- FWCI
- 6.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Probability and Statistical Research
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Literary, Cultural, Historical Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Keywords
- philosophy of probability, foundations of statistics, probability interpretation, statistical inference
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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