Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea
Abstract
The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) has been overexploited in the North Sea since the late 1960s and great concern has been expressed about the decline in cod biomass and recruitment. Here we show that, in addition to the effects of overfishing, fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). Survival of larval cod is shown to depend on three key biological parameters of their prey: the mean size of prey, seasonal timing and abundance. We suggest a mechanism, involving the match/mismatch hypothesis, by which variability in temperature affects larval cod survival and conclude that rising temperature since the mid-1980s has modified the plankton ecosystem in a way that reduces the survival of young cod.
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The match-mismatch hypothesis has been applied to cod stocks in the North Sea and salmon and seabirds in California.
“and has been applied to cod stocks in the North Sea [90] as well as salmon and seabirds in California [82,91].”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [90]
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Cushing, D. H. (1990) · Advances in Marine Biology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2881(08)60202-3 · Cited by 2,098 · see citing works
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Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems
Bakun, A., Black, B. A., Bograd, S. J., García-Reyes, M., Miller, A. J., Rykaczewski, R. R., & Sydeman, W. J. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4 · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change impacts
Rosenzweig, C., & Neofotis, P. (2013) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.209 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Global multi-decadal ocean climate and small-pelagic fish population
Tourre, Y. M., Lluch-Cota, S. E., & White, W. B. (2007) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/3/034005 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Domingues, R. B., Guerra, C. C., Barbosa, A. B., Brotas, V., & Galvão, H. M. (2014) · Journal of Plankton Research · doi:10.1093/plankt/fbt135 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
- Authors
- Beaugrand, G., Brander, K. M., Alistair Lindley, J., Souissi, S., & Reid, P. C.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (DK)
- Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Beaugrand, Grégory
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2003-12
- Volume
- 426
- Issue
- 6967
- Pages
- 661-664
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2063466669
- Cited by
- 1,284
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 52 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 59 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 66 · 2015: 62 · 2014: 68 · 2013: 84 · 2012: 68
- FWCI
- 40.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Marine Biological Association (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Keywords
- Gadus morhua, cod recruitment, plankton, bottom-up control, larval survival, match-mismatch hypothesis, temperature variability, overfishing, prey size, seasonal timing, North Sea
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Diet, Fishes, Larva, North Sea, Plankton, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Seawater, Temperature, Survival Rate, Ecosystem, Biomass
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