Cited by 6,467Climate variability and modelsClimate Change Policy and EconomicsSustainability and Climate Change Governance

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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Moss, Richard H., Edmonds, Jae A., Hibbard, Kathy A., Manning, Martin R., Rose, Steven K., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Carter, Timothy R., Emori, Seita, Kainuma, Mikiko, Kram, Tom, Meehl, Gerald A., Mitchell, John F. B., Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Steven J., Stouffer, Ronald J., Thomson, Allison M., Weyant, John P., Wilbanks, Thomas J.·2010·Nature

DOI 10.1038/nature08823

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Abstract

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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Authors: Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., & Wilbanks, T. J.
Affiliations: Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
Electric Power Research Institute (US)
Finnish Environment Institute (FI)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
Met Office (GB)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Stanford University (US)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
Corresponding author: Moss, Richard H.
ORCID: Moss, Richard H.
Edmonds, Jae A.
Manning, Martin R.
Rose, Steven K.
Carter, Timothy R.
Emori, Seita
Meehl, Gerald A.
Riahi, Keywan
Smith, Steven J.
Stouffer, Ronald J.
Thomson, Allison M.
Weyant, John P.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2010-02
Volume: 463
Issue: 7282
Pages: 747-756
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature08823
OpenAlex: W2054653365
Cited by: 6,467
References: 85
Citations by year: 2026: 158 · 2025: 232 · 2024: 355 · 2023: 426 · 2022: 491 · 2021: 609 · 2020: 509 · 2019: 512 · 2018: 529 · 2017: 524 · 2016: 448 · 2015: 496 · 2014: 400 · 2013: 381 · 2012: 223
FWCI: 222.96
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
Keywords: climate change scenarios, scenario development, climate change projections, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, uncertainty analysis, radiative forcing, interdisciplinary research coordination
MeSH terms: Vehicle Emissions, Ecology, Human Activities, Risk Assessment, Global Warming

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