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Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals
Open accessAbstract
The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.
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“Cross-species transmission results from a complex interplay between the characteristics of the pathogen (2, 10–12): the original host’s infection, behavior, and ecology; how the pathogen is shed into and survives in the environment; how humans are exposed to the pathogen; and how susceptible those humans are to infection (4, 12–16).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In recent analyses, rodents have also emerged as the most likely source (21, 23) or one of the most likely (11, 27).”
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“Even fruit bats are kept as pets [176] and it is known that bats harbor a higher proportion of zoonoses than all other mammalian orders, including rabies-like viruses that are highly pathogenic for people. [177].”
From A One Health Perspective on the Human-Companion Animal Relationship with Emphasis on Zoonotic Aspects. (2020) · cites this paper as [177]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Olival, K. J., Hosseini, P. R., Zambrana-Torrelio, C., Ross, N., Bogich, T. L., & Daszak, P.
- Affiliations
- EcoHealth Alliance (US)
- Corresponding author
- Olival, Kevin J.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2017-06-21
- Volume
- 546
- Issue
- 7660
- Pages
- 646-650
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC5570460
- OpenAlex
- W2700382303
- Semantic Scholar
- 5833bef1f77157d1e3e6e1553ee9fdd2ff049ee0
- Cited by
- 1,130
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 83 · 2025: 109 · 2024: 109 · 2023: 137 · 2022: 130 · 2021: 192 · 2020: 152 · 2019: 99 · 2018: 81 · 2017: 33
- FWCI
- 93.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2017-08-23)
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- United States Agency for International Development
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI110964, R01AI079231)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Virology and Viral Diseases
- Keywords
- zoonotic spillover, host-virus interaction, mammalian viruses, interspecies transmission, emerging infectious diseases, bats, phylogenetic relatedness, host breadth, human-wildlife contact, pandemic surveillance
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Humans, Mammals, Viruses, Zoonoses, Biodiversity, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Host Specificity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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