Global trends in emerging infectious diseases
Open accessAbstract
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.
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Jones et al. found that zoonotic diseases arising from wildlife were only ∼1% more likely to emerge where the diversity of wild mammals was high.
“Although zoonotic diseases arising from wildlife were only ∼1% more likely to emerge where the diversity of wild mammals was high, Jones et al. (5) concluded”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
The main text reports that wildlife host species richness significantly predicts the emergence of wildlife-origin zoonotic diseases. Table 1 gives a value of 1.01 for wildlife host richness, consistent with roughly 1% higher odds per unit of richness. It does not report that emergence is only 1% more likely in high-diversity places than in low-diversity places; the claim omits that important distinction. (LLM, conf=0.89)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredGeographic comparisons through large-scale correlational studies based on the "total host diversity" model have tended to report a weak but positive effect of mammal species richness on zoonotic diseases, but these studies show much stronger positive correlations with other factors, such as human population density.
“Geographic comparisons through large-scale correlational studies (based on the “total host diversity” model in Fig. 1) have tended to report a weak but positive effect of mammal species richness on zoonotic diseases, but these studies show much stronger positive correlations with other factors, such as human population density (e.g., refs. 5 and 17).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredJones et al. observed that high human population density increased the likelihood of the emergence of a zoonotic disease from wildlife by 75 to 90%, an effect almost two orders-of-magnitude greater than the effect of mammalian diversity.
“Of note was their observation that high human population density increased the likelihood of the emergence of a zoonotic disease from wildlife by 75 to 90%, an effect almost two orders-of-magnitude greater than the effect of mammalian diversity.”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
Zoonotic diseases appear to be emerging more frequently.
“These so-called zoonotic diseases, which result from cross-species transmission of pathogens between humans and other vertebrate animals, appear to be emerging more frequently (5).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
Jones et al. concluded that wildlife host species richness is a significant predictor for the emergence of zoonotic emerging infectious diseases with a wildlife origin, with no role for human population growth, latitude or rainfall.
“Jones et al. (5) concluded that “wildlife host species richness is a significant predictor for the emergence of zoonotic EIDs [emerging infectious diseases] with a wildlife origin, with no role for human population growth, latitude or rainfall.””
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
Human impacts like land-use change have been linked to emerging infectious diseases of humans in many studies.
“Human impacts like land-use change have been linked to emerging infectious diseases of humans in many studies (e.g., refs. 5, 8, 29, 38, and 39).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
The more general idea that biodiversity can reduce human disease risk has been controversial, largely because biodiversity was thought to be a source of new zoonotic pathogens via spillover.
“Despite abundant evidence for the dilution effect, the more general idea that biodiversity can reduce human disease risk has been controversial (47, 59), in large part because biodiversity was thought to be a source of new zoonotic pathogens via spillover (in the sense of Fig. 1A) (5, 8, 17, 47).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
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- Authors
- Jones, K. E., Patel, N. G., Levy, M. A., Storeygard, A., Balk, D., Gittleman, J. L., & Daszak, P.
- Affiliations
- Zoological Society of London (GB)
- EcoHealth Alliance (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- Baruch College (US)
- University of Georgia (US)
- Corresponding author
- Daszak, Peter
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2008-02
- Volume
- 451
- Issue
- 7181
- Pages
- 990-993
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC5960580
- OpenAlex
- W2127435093
- Cited by
- 8,338
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 456 · 2025: 599 · 2024: 624 · 2023: 741 · 2022: 793 · 2021: 863 · 2020: 798 · 2019: 389 · 2018: 388 · 2017: 377 · 2016: 348 · 2015: 316 · 2014: 376 · 2013: 307 · 2012: 309
- FWCI
- 213.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- New York Community Trust
- V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation
- National Institutes of Health
- Earth Institute, Columbia University
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI079231)
- Fogarty International Center (R01TW005869)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD007338)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Keywords
- emerging infectious diseases, disease hotspots, zoonoses, socioeconomic factors, drug-resistant bacteria, antibiotic resistance, HIV/AIDS epidemic, disease surveillance, reporting bias, vector-borne diseases
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Drug Resistance, Microbial, Environment, Geography, Humans, Risk, Socioeconomic Factors, Zoonoses, Incidence, Databases, Factual, Communicable Diseases, Emerging
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