Cited by 1,130Zoonotic diseases and public healthViral Infections and Outbreaks ResearchVirology and Viral Diseases

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 55 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals

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Abstract

The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.

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  1. Fauquet, C ., Mayo, M. A ., Maniloff, J ., Desselberger, U. & Ball, L. A. Virus taxonomy: Eighth Report of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. (Elsevier Academic Press, 2005)

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Metadata

Authors
Olival, K. J., Hosseini, P. R., Zambrana-Torrelio, C., Ross, N., Bogich, T. L., & Daszak, P.
Affiliations
EcoHealth Alliance (US)
Corresponding author
Olival, Kevin J.
Venue
Nature
Published
2017-06-21
Volume
546
Issue
7660
Pages
646-650
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
OpenAlex
W2700382303
Cited by
1,130
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 83 · 2025: 109 · 2024: 109 · 2023: 137 · 2022: 130 · 2021: 192 · 2020: 152 · 2019: 99 · 2018: 81 · 2017: 33
FWCI
93.99
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
erratum (2017-08-23)
Open access
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • United States Agency for International Development
  • National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI110964, R01AI079231)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Virology and Viral Diseases
Keywords
zoonotic spillover, host-virus interaction, mammalian viruses, interspecies transmission, emerging infectious diseases, bats, phylogenetic relatedness, host breadth, human-wildlife contact, pandemic surveillance
MeSH terms
Animals, Humans, Mammals, Viruses, Zoonoses, Biodiversity, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Host Specificity

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