Cited by 1,224Forest Management and PolicyFire effects on ecosystemsForest ecology and management

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Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage

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Seidl, Rupert, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, Rammer, Werner, Verkerk, Pieter Johannes·2014·Nature Climate Change

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Abstract

Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20 th century 1. Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase 2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget 3,4, and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests 5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21 st century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·10 6 m 3 of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future forest policy and management will require a stronger focus on disturbance risk and resilience.

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Authors: Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M.-J., Rammer, W., & Verkerk, P. J.
Affiliations: BOKU University (AT)
Wageningen University & Research (NL)
European Forest Institute (FI)
Corresponding author: Seidl, Rupert
ORCID: Seidl, Rupert
Schelhaas, Mart-Jan
Rammer, Werner
Verkerk, Pieter Johannes
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2014-08-03
Volume: 4
Issue: 9
Pages: 806-810
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2318
PMC: PMC4340567
OpenAlex: W2063267306
Cited by: 1,224
References: 29
Citations by year: 2026: 97 · 2025: 112 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 128 · 2021: 148 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 88 · 2018: 86 · 2017: 73 · 2016: 60 · 2015: 53 · 2014: 6
FWCI: 52.57
Type: journal article
Language: en
Update notices: erratum (2014-09-25)
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest ecology and management
Keywords: forest disturbance, forest carbon storage, wind damage, bark beetles, forest fires, climate change, climate change scenarios, forest management, forest resilience, European forests, carbon cycle feedbacks

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Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage

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