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Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage
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Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20 th century 1. Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase 2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget 3,4, and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests 5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21 st century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·10 6 m 3 of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future forest policy and management will require a stronger focus on disturbance risk and resilience.
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“Greater fire activity is not limited to the U.S., with increases observed in regions and ecosystem types across the globe (e.g., Cochrane et al., 2003; Fairman et al., 2015; Seidl et al., 2014).”
From Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management (2022) · cites this paper as Seidl et al., 2014
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“However, protection AR may have larger uncertainties because it is more prone to exposure for longer periods of time to natural disturbances such as insects, diseases, wind, and fire (45), which are not included in this study.”
From Climate-smart forestry through innovative wood products and commercial afforestation and reforestation on marginal land (2023) · cites this paper as [45]
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Lallemand, F., & Guerin, A.-J. (2017) · Revue Forestière Française · doi:10.4267/2042/65341 · Cited by 3
Ambiguity, value of information and forest rotation decision under storm risk
Loisel, P., Brunette, M., & Couture, S. (2025) · Resource and Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2025.101536 · Cited by 3
Tagle, M. A. G., Cerano‐Paredes, J., Himmelsbach, W., Alanís-Rodríguez, E., & Colazo-Ayala, Á. A. (2022) · Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente (en línea)/Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente · doi:10.5154/r.rchscfa.2022.03.018 · Cited by 3
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Metadata
- Authors
- Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M.-J., Rammer, W., & Verkerk, P. J.
- Affiliations
- BOKU University (AT)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- European Forest Institute (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Seidl, Rupert
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-08-03
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 806-810
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC4340567
- OpenAlex
- W2063267306
- Cited by
- 1,224
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 97 · 2025: 112 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 128 · 2021: 148 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 88 · 2018: 86 · 2017: 73 · 2016: 60 · 2015: 53 · 2014: 6
- FWCI
- 52.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2014-09-25)
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest ecology and management
- Keywords
- forest disturbance, forest carbon storage, wind damage, bark beetles, forest fires, climate change, climate change scenarios, forest management, forest resilience, European forests, carbon cycle feedbacks
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