The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
Open accessAbstract
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.
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Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system
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Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.
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Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing
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Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Drijfhout, S., Bathiany, S., Beaulieu, C., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Huntingford, C., Scheffer, M., Sgubin, G., & Swingedouw, D. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1511451112 · Cited by 332
Self-citationA reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005
Robson, J., Ortega, P., & Sutton, R. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2727 · Cited by 243
Cited by
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“The North Atlantic cooling trend (i.e., the “ warming hole ” ) is centered over the SPG and in models is often closely linked to SPG weakening ( 65 , 66 ), although others have associated it with AMOC slowdown ( 67 ).”
InfluentialClimate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate
Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Xie, S.-P., & Hu, S. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876 · Cited by 322
Laakso, A., Korhonen, H., Romakkaniemi, S., & Kokkola, H. (2017) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-6957-2017 · Cited by 40
Metadata
- Authors
- Sgubin, G., Swingedouw, D., Drijfhout, S., Mary, Y., & Bennabi, A.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2017-02-15
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2588733052
- Cited by
- 221
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 16.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
