A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005
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SSTA variability in the sub-Greenland gyre region has been linked to the AMOC, which was moving into a positive phase in the 1990s, peaking in the 2000s and then declining in the 2010s.
“SSTA variability in this region has been linked to the AMOC, which was moving into a positive phase in the 1990’s (warming trend in SSTAs), peaking in the 2000’s and then declining in the 2010’s (cooling trend in SSTAs)37–40.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [40]
The Abstract links rapid subpolar-gyre warming in the mid-1990s to a strengthening AMOC and reports cooling since 2005 consistent with weaker ocean circulation. It does not establish an AMOC peak in the 2000s; instead, it says measurements suggest circulation strength has declined since the mid-1990s. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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- Robson, J. I., Sutton, R. T. & Smith, D. M. Initialized predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett 25, L19713 (2012).
- Yeager, S. & Danabasoglu, G. The origins of late-twentieth-century variations in the large-scale North Atlantic circulation. Journal of Climate 27, 3222-3247 (2014).
- Dong, B. & Sutton, R. T. Mechanism of Interdecadal Thermohaline Circulation Variability in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM. Journal of Climate 18, 1117- 1135 (2005).
- Hermanson, L. et al. Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts. Geophysical research letters 41, 5167-5174 (2014).
- Hodson, D. L. & Sutton, R. T. The impact of resolution on the adjust- ment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics 39, 3057-3073 (2012). URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1309-0. · DOI
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- Roberts, C. D., Garry, F. K. & Jackson, L. C. A Multimodel Study of Sea Sur- face Temperature and Subsurface Density Fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Journal of Climate 26, 9155-9174 (2013).
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- Menary, M. B., Hodson, D. L., Robson, J. I., Sutton, R. T. & Wood, R. A. A Mech- anism of Internal Decadal Atlantic Ocean Variability in a High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model. Journal of Climate 28, 7764-7785 (2015).
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Gobler, C. J., Doherty, O. M., Hattenrath-Lehmann, T. K., Griffith, A. W., Kang, Y., & Litaker, R. W. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1619575114 · Cited by 537 · see citing works
Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies
Bulgin, C. E., Merchant, C. J., & Ferreira, D. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-64785-9 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program
Sutton, R. T., McCarthy, G. D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. T., & Gray, L. J. (2018) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0266.1 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Self-citationRuiz-Barradas, A., Chafik, L., Nigam, S., & Häkkinen, S. (2018) · Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.1080/16000870.2018.1481688 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
- Authors
- Robson, J., Ortega, P., & Sutton, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Reading (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Robson, Jon
- Venue
- Nature Geoscience
- Published
- 2016-06-06
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 513-517
- ISSN
- 1752-0894 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-0908
- OpenAlex
- W2416748643
- Cited by
- 243
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 16.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Geoscience (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission (308378)
- Met Office
- Natural Environment Research Council (ncas10009, NE/M005127/1, M005127/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Keywords
- North Atlantic subpolar gyre, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean circulation weakening, heat transport, Labrador Sea, deep ocean warming, ocean freshening, aerosol radiative forcing
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