Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Open accessAbstract
Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
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The difference between both ensembles is possibly related to the forest-rainfall feedback included in the five coupled models, which increases total annual rainfall and therefore the stable forest area along the southern Amazon, but only when deforestation is not included in the simulations.
“The difference between both ensembles is possibly related to the forest–rainfall feedback included in the five coupled models, which increases total annual rainfall and therefore the stable forest area along the southern Amazon, but only when deforestation is not included in the simulations4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIncreases in tree water-use efficiency may reduce forest transpiration and consequently atmospheric moisture flow across the Amazon, potentially reducing forest resilience in the southwest of the biome.
“Moreover, increases in tree water-use efficiency may reduce forest transpiration and consequently atmospheric moisture flow across the Amazon53,56, potentially reducing forest resilience in the southwest of the biome4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The Results section (‘Self-amplified forest loss under dry-season intensification’; page unavailable) links reduced evapotranspiration after forest loss with moisture recycling and declining forest resilience. But the paper studies forest loss, not increased tree water-use efficiency as a cause of reduced transpiration. The southwest-resilience clause has separate citations in the citing sentence and is not attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the Amazon, atmospheric moisture flow westward is an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience, partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration.
“In the Amazon, an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience is atmospheric moisture flow westward (Fig. 2), partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration4,37,67.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The Methods (‘Moisture recycling networks’; page not provided) describe links through which evapotranspiration in one Amazon grid cell contributes rainfall to another. The Results (‘Forest shifts’; page not provided) link rainfall to forest resilience. These passages support moisture-mediated connectivity and its relationship to resilience, but they do not establish the claim’s specific westward direction of flow. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSatellite observations suggest a critical threshold in rainfall seasonality intensity at −400 mm of the maximum cumulative water deficit.
“Satellite observations of tree cover distributions across tropical South America suggest a critical threshold in rainfall seasonality intensity at −400 mm of the maximum cumulative water deficit37,80 (MCWD).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The Results section (“Forest shifts”; page unavailable) says that forest probability across rainfall regimes is derived from satellite data and that forest resilience decreases as MCWD decreases. The Methods section (“Potential landscapes”; page unavailable) examines tree-cover states across MCWD values, but the retrieved passages do not identify a critical threshold at −400 mm. That numerical threshold is unsupported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAnother study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline by 40%, potentially causing more forest loss.
“Another study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline67 by 40% (ref. 67), potentially causing more forest loss4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
The Results (LGM and twenty-first century; page unavailable) describe an approximately 40% dry-season rainfall reduction that could lead to self-amplified forest loss. But that scenario is driven by reduced oceanic moisture inflow, not 30–50% accumulated deforestation; the passage does not place the rainfall decline in non-deforested areas downwind. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Amazonian forests are heterogeneous in their resilience to disturbances, which may have contributed to buffering large-scale transitions in the past.
“Amazonian forests are heterogeneous in their resilience to disturbances, which may have contributed to buffering large-scale transitions in the past37,61,62.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [37]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., & Rammig, A.
- Affiliations
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
- University of Göttingen (DE)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Zemp, Delphine Clara
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2017-03-13
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 14681-14681
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5355804
- OpenAlex
- W2597353615
- Cited by
- 413
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 42 · 2025: 52 · 2024: 49 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 9
- FWCI
- 20.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Maryland Shared Open Access Repository (USMAI Consortium) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Americanae (AECID Library) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- GoeScholar The Publication Server of the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- mediaTUM – the media and publications repository of the Technical University Munich (Technical University Munich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Research Repository (Delft University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Repository at the University of Maryland (University of Maryland College Park) (cc-by)
- RENATE (cc-by)
- Funders
- European Commission (282664, 283093)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, IRTG1740, TRP 2011/50151-0)
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (13/50510-5, 11/50151-0, 13/50169-1, 2011/)
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (1364115)
- Vetenskapsrådet
- Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz (16_II_148_GLobal_A_IMPACT)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- extreme drought, complex networks, Last Glacial Maximum, forest stability, Amazon basin
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