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Cited by 184Geology and Paleoclimatology ResearchAncient Egypt and ArchaeologyArchaeology and ancient environmental studies

Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

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Manning, Joseph G., Ludlow, Francis, Stine, Alexander R., Boos, William R., Sigl, Michael, Marlon, Jennifer R.·2017·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-017-00957-yPMC PMC5645420
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Abstract

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.

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  • The climatic impacts associated with the Hrafnkatla event are generally comparable to other large Icelandic volcanic eruptions such as Eldgjá 939 CE and Laki 1783 CE, with strong winter cooling anomalies across Europe and perturbations to the hydrological cycle.

    “The climatic impacts associated with the Hrafnkatla event (the stratospheric eruption which marks the end of Hrafnkatla episode in 762 CE) are generally comparable to other large Icelandic volcanic eruptions such as Eldgjá 939 CE and Laki 1783 CE, with strong winter cooling anomalies across Europe 28,56,57 and perturbations to the hydrological cycle 56,[58][59][60] .”

    From Decadal-to-centennial increases of volcanic aerosols from Iceland challenge the concept of a Medieval Quiet Period (2024) · cites this paper as [58]

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Research works printed but not linked: 9

  1. [2]Butzer, K. Early Hydraulic Civilization in Egypt (University of Chicago Press, 1976).
  2. [3]Butzer, K. in From Hunters to Farmers: The Causes and Consequences of Food Production in Africa (eds Brandt, S. A. & Clark, J. D.) 102–112 (University of California Press, 1984).
  3. [4]Lewis, M. J. T. Millstone and Hammer: The Origins of Water Power (University of Hull Press, 1997).
  4. [7]Bresson, A. in The Economies of Hellenistic Societies, Third to First Centuries BC (eds Archibald, Z., Davies, J. K. & Gabrielsen, V.) 66–95 (Oxford University Press, 2011).
  5. [26]Christensen, J. H. et al. in Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley) (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
  6. [32]Hölbl, G. A History of the Ptolemaic Empire (Routledge, 2001).
  7. [45]Holdaway, S. & Phillips, R. in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Agriculture and the Environment (ed. Hazlett, R.) 1–34 (Oxford University Press, 2016).
  8. [46]Hassan, F. in Historical Ecology: Cultural Knowledge and Changing Landscapes (ed. Crumley, C. L.) 155–181 (School of American Research Press, 1994).
  9. [48]Thompson, D. J. in Agriculture in Egypt: From Pharaonic to Modern Times (eds Bowman, A. K. & Rogan, E.) (Oxford University Press, 1999).

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Authors
Manning, J. G., Ludlow, F., Stine, A. R., Boos, W. R., Sigl, M., & Marlon, J. R.
Affiliations
  • Yale University (US)
  • Trinity College Dublin (IE)
  • San Francisco State University (US)
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
  • University of Bern (CH)
Corresponding author
Ludlow, Francis
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2017-10-17
Volume
8
Issue
1
Pages
900-900
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y
PMC
PMC5645420
OpenAlex
W2761620976
Cited by
184
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 13
FWCI
6.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Arrow@dit (Dublin Institute of Technology) (acceptedVersion)
  • DORA PSI (Paul Scherrer Institute) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • Trinity's Access to Research Output (TARA) (Trinity College Dublin) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1437074, 1405053)
  • Yale University
  • Past Global Changes
  • Trinity College Dublin
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Egypt and Archaeology
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
Keywords
volcanic eruptions, African monsoon, Ptolemaic Egypt, interstate conflict, abrupt climate change, ancient Egypt
MeSH terms
Egypt, Ancient, Climate, Conflict, Psychological, Geography, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Rain, Seasons, Warfare, Volcanic Eruptions, Rivers, History, Ancient, Floods

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