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Cited by 341Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamicsClimate variability and modelsOceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016

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Meehl, Gerald A., Arblaster, Julie M., Chung, Christine T. Y., Holland, Marika M., DuVivier, Alice, Thompson, LuAnne, Yang, Dongxia, Bitz, Cecilia M.·2019·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9PMC PMC6312884
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Abstract

After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.

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  • The Pacific Decadal Oscillation transitioned from a positive to negative phase over the 1980s-2000s, becoming more neutral in the 2010s.

    “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) also transitioned from a positive to negative phase over the 1980’s-2000’s, becoming more neutral in the 2010’s.”

    From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [78]

    The Introduction (page unavailable) describes a positive-to-negative shift across 1979–2000 and the post-2000 period, but it identifies the oscillation as the IPO, not the PDO. It also describes a transition toward a positive IPO phase in 2014–2016, rather than saying it became more neutral in the 2010s. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Cooling in the Southern Pacific is consistent with the PDO becoming more negative (1980s-2000s) and warming consistent with a return towards a positive index (2010s).

    “Cooling in the Southern Pacific is consistent with the PDO becoming more negative (1980’s-2000’s) and warming consistent with a return towards a positive index (2010’s)35,78.”

    From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [78]

    The Introduction (page not specified) links below-normal southern-latitude sea-surface temperatures to a negative interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and describes a possible transition toward a positive IPO in 2014–2016. But it places the negative phase in 2000–2014 and the positive phase in 1979–2000, contrary to the claim’s 1980s–2000s timing. It discusses the IPO, not the PDO. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • From the end of 2016 onwards, a sharp decrease in Antarctic sea-ice has been observed.

    “From the end of 2016 onwards, a sharp decrease in Antarctic sea-ice has also been observed78”

    From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [78]

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 25

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Authors
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Chung, C. T. Y., Holland, M. M., DuVivier, A., Thompson, L., Yang, D., & Bitz, C. M.
Affiliations
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Bureau of Meteorology (AU)
  • University of Washington (US)
  • ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (AU)
Corresponding author
Meehl, Gerald A.
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-01-02
Volume
10
Issue
1
Pages
14-14
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9
PMC
PMC6312884
OpenAlex
W2907938228
Cited by
341
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 17 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 46 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 3
FWCI
18.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Monash University Research Portal (Monash University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (D6RX99HX)
  • U.S. Department of Energy (DEFC0297ER62402, FC02-97ER62402, Cooperative Agreement # DE-FC02-97ER62402)
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (10.5065/D6RX99HX)
  • National Computational Infrastructure
  • Australian Government (CE170100023)
  • Climate Extremes (CE170100023)
  • Australian Research Council (CE170100023)
  • National Cancer Institute
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Keywords
sea ice extent, Rossby wave response, wind stress curl, Southern Annular Mode, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction, Southern Ocean warming, atmospheric circulation

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