Impacts of solar intermittency on future photovoltaic reliability.
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As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends in mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, we characterize solar radiation intermittency to assess future photovoltaic reliability. We find that the relation between the future power supply and long-term mean solar radiation trends is spatially heterogeneous, showing power reliability is more sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in hot arid regions. Our results highlight how reliability analysis must account simultaneously for the mean and intermittency of solar inputs when assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaics.
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Biofuels will not be the only solution but an essential building block in a network with other physical and chemical technologies that together can provide carbon neutral or even carbon negative energy and mobility solutions.
“In that regard, biofuels will not be the only solution but an essential building block in a network with other physical (i.e., wind power, photovoltaic systems [103–105]) and chemical technologies (i.e., Sabatier process, Power to X [106,107]) that together can provide carbon neutral or even carbon negative energy and mobility solutions.”
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- Authors
- Yin, J., Molini, A., & Porporato, A.
- Affiliations
- Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN)
- Khalifa University of Science and Technology (AE)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Porporato, Amilcare
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2020-09-22
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4781-4781
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7508863
- OpenAlex
- W3003290234
- Cited by
- 179
- References
- 53
- Citations by year
- 2026: 51 · 2025: 40 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 5.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (41877158, 51739009)
- National Science Foundation (EAR-1316258, FESD EAR-1338694)
- United States Department of Agriculture | Agricultural Research Service (58-6408-3-027)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Systems
- Keywords
- solar intermittency, photovoltaic module reliability, solar radiation variability, climate change impacts, solar power supply, climate model projections, arid regions, spatial heterogeneity, renewable energy reliability
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