CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 256

Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off

Victoria, Marta, Zhu, Kun, Brown, Tom, Andresen, Gorm B., Greiner, Martin·2020·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-20015-4PMC PMC7718908
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. Here we consider a budget of 33 GtCO 2 for the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from the European electricity, heating, and transport sectors between 2020 and 2050, which represents Europe’s contribution to the Paris Agreement. We have found that following an early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost-effective than following a late and rapid path in which low initial reduction targets quickly deplete the carbon budget and require a sharp reduction later. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation. Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41467-020-20015-4

Cites

4 of 4 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • For growing shares of VRE, increasing flexibility would enable a least-cost energy system and is required to deal with imbalances in the power sector.

    “Previous research has shown that for growing shares of VRE increasing flexibility would not only enable a least-cost energy system, but also required to deal with imbalances in the power sector24–29.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [29]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 43

  1. [6]Raupach MR Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions Nat. Clim. Change 2014 4 873 879 10.1038/nclimate2384 · DOI
  2. [7]Matthews HD Quantifying historical carbon and climate debts among nations Nat. Clim. Change 2016 6 60 64 10.1038/nclimate2774 · DOI
  3. [12]Eriksen EH Schwenk-Nebbe LJ Tranberg B Brown T Greiner M Optimal heterogeneity in a simplified highly renewable European electricity system Energy 2017 133 913 928 10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.170 · DOI
  4. [13]Schlachtberger DP Brown T Schramm S Greiner M The benefits of cooperation in a highly renewable European electricity network Energy 2017 134 469 481 10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.004 · DOI
  5. [14]Gils HC Scholz Y Pregger T de Tena DL Heide D Integrated modelling of variable renewable energy-based power supply in Europe Energy 2017 123 173–188 10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.115 · DOI
  6. [15]Brown TW Response to Burden of proof: a comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems’ Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018 92 834 847 10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.113 · DOI · Paper page
  7. [16]Rodríguez RA Becker S Andresen GB Heide D Greiner M Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system Renew. Energy 2014 63 467 476 10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.005 · DOI
  8. [17]Rasmussen MG Andresen GB Greiner M Storage and balancing synergies in a fully or highly renewable pan-European power system Energy Policy 2012 51 642 – 651 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.009 · DOI
  9. [18]Cebulla F Naegler T Pohl M Electrical energy storage in highly renewable European energy systems: capacity requirements, spatial distribution, and storage dispatch J. Energy Storage 2017 14 211 223 10.1016/j.est.2017.10.004 · DOI
  10. [19]Victoria M Zhu K Brown T Andresen GB Greiner M The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system Energy Convers. Manag. 2019 201 111977 10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111977 · DOI · Paper page
  11. [20]Connolly D Lund H Mathiesen BV Smart Energy Europe: the technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2016 60 1634 1653 10.1016/j.rser.2016.02.025 · DOI
  12. [21]Brown T Schlachtberger D Kies A Schramm S Greiner M Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system Energy 2018 160 720 739 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.222 · DOI · Paper page
  13. [22]Child M Kemfert C Bogdanov D Breyer C Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe Renew. Energy 2019 139 80 101 10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.077 · DOI · Paper page
  14. [27]Pleßmann G Blechinger P How to meet EU GHG emission reduction targets? A model based decarbonization pathway for Europe’s electricity supply system until 2050 Energy Strategy Rev. 2017 15 19 32 10.1016/j.esr.2016.11.003 · DOI
  15. [28]Gerbaulet C von Hirschhausen C Kemfert C Lorenz C Oei PY European electricity sector decarbonization under different levels of foresight Renew. Energy 2019 141 973 987 10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.099 · DOI
  16. [29]Poncelet, K., Delarue, E., Six, D. & D’haeseleer, W. Myopic optimization models for simulation of investment decisions in the electric power sector. In 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1–9 (IEEE, 2016).
  17. [30]Heuberger CF Staffell I Shah N Dowell NM Impact of myopic decision-making and disruptive events in power systems planning Nat. Energy 2019 3 634 640 10.1038/s41560-018-0159-3 · DOI
  18. [32]van Vuuren DP Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies Nat. Clim. Change 2018 8 391 397 10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8 · DOI
  19. [34]Krey V Looking under the hood: a comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models Energy 2019 172 1254 1267 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.131 · DOI
  20. [35]Pfenninger S Energy scientists must show their workings Nature 2017 542 393 10.1038/542393a 28230147 · DOI
  21. [37]Zhu K Victoria M Brown T Andresen GB Greiner M Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe Appl. Energy 2019 236 622 634 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.016 · DOI
  22. [38]Tong, D. et al. Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target. Nature572, 373–377 (2019). PMC6697221 31261374
  23. [39]Chase J Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon 2019 Singapore World Scientific
  24. [41]Victoria, M., Gallego, C., Anton, I. & Sala, G. Past, Present and Future of Feed-in Tariffs in Spain: What are their Real Costs? 27th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition. 4612–4616 10.4229/27thEUPVSEC2012-6CV.3.49 (2012). · DOI
  25. [42]Geels FW Sovacool BK Schwanen T Sorrell S Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization Science 2017 357 1242 1244 10.1126/science.aao3760 28935795 · DOI · Paper page
  26. [43]Vandyck T Air quality co-benefits for human health and agriculture counterbalance costs to meet Paris Agreement pledges Nat. Commun. 2018 9 1 11 10.1038/s41467-018-06885-9 30467311 PMC6250710 · DOI
  27. [44]Vartiainen, E., Masson, G., Breyer, C., Moser, D. & Medina, E. R. Impact of weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility-scale PV levelised cost of electricity. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications (John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2017) 10.1002/pip.3189. · DOI · Paper page
  28. [45]Neumann F Brown T The near-optimal feasible space of a renewable power system model Electr. Power Syst. Res. 2021 190 106690 10.1016/j.epsr.2020.106690 · DOI
  29. [47]Löffler, K., Burandt, T., Hainsch, K. & Oei, P.-Y. Modeling the low-carbon transition of the European energy system - a quantitative assessment of the stranded assets problem. Energy Strat. Rev.26, 100422 (2019).
  30. [48]McGlade C Ekins P The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C Nature 2015 517 187 190 10.1038/nature14016 25567285 · DOI · Paper page
  31. [50]Ueckerdt F Decarbonizing global power supply under region-specific consideration of challenges and options of integrating variable renewables in the REMIND model Energy Econ. 2017 64 665 684 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.012 · DOI
  32. [51]Pietzcker RC Stetter D Manger S Luderer G Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector: The economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power Appl. Energy 2014 135 704 720 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.011 · DOI
  33. [53]Gotzens F Heinrichs H Hrsch J Hofmann F Performing energy modelling exercises in a transparent way - The issue of data quality in power plant databases Energy Strategy Rev. 2019 23 1 12 10.1016/j.esr.2018.11.004 · DOI
  34. [54]Hrsch J Hofmann F Schlachtberger D Brown T PyPSA-Eur: An open optimisation model of the European transmission system Energy Strat. Rev. 2018 22 207 215 10.1016/j.esr.2018.08.012 · DOI
  35. [55]Frysztacki, M. & Brown, T. Modeling curtailment in germany: how spatial resolution impacts line congestion. Preprint at http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03801 (2020). · arXiv
  36. [57]Kroposki B Achieving a 100% renewable grid: operating electric power systems with extremely high levels of variable renewable energy IEEE Power Energy Mag. 2017 15 61 73 10.1109/MPE.2016.2637122 · DOI
  37. [59]Rojas EG Sadri H Krueger W Case study of MW-sized power generation at St. Eustatius island combining photovoltaics, battery storage, and gensets Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl. 2020 28 562 568 10.1002/pip.3222 · DOI
  38. [60]Schlachtberger DP Brown T Schfer M Schramm S Greiner M Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints Energy 2018 163 100 114 10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.070 · DOI
  39. [61]Schlott M Kies A Brown T Schramm S Greiner M The impact of climate change on a cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity network Appl. Energy 2018 230 1645 1659 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.084 · DOI
  40. [62]Jerez S The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe Nat. Commun. 2015 6 10014 10.1038/ncomms10014 26658608 PMC4682048 · DOI
  41. [63]Zhu K Victoria M Andresen GB Greiner M Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe Appl. Energy 2020 262 114500 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114500 · DOI
  42. [64]Egli F Steffen B Schmidt TS Bias in energy system models with uniform cost of capital assumption Nat. Commun. 2019 10 1 3 10.1038/s41467-019-12468-z 31597921 PMC6785535 · DOI
  43. [66]Brown, T., Hörsch, J. & Schlachtberger, D. PyPSA: Python for Power System Analysis. J. Open Res. Softw.6, 4 (2018).

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Victoria, M., Zhu, K., Brown, T., Andresen, G. B., & Greiner, M.
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2020-12-04
Volume
11
Issue
1
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-020-20015-4
PMC
PMC7718908
Cited by
256
References
4
Language
en
Licence
Funders
  • Innovationsfonden (6154-00022B)
  • Helmholtz Association (VH-NG-1352)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review