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Cited by 126Thermoregulation and physiological responsesClimate Change and Health ImpactsOccupational Health and Global Justice

Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world

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Parsons, Luke A., Shindell, Drew, Tigchelaar, Michelle, Zhang, Yuqiang, Spector, June T.·2021·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-021-27328-yPMC PMC8671389
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Abstract

Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming.

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  • Under future warming, both India and Pakistan are amongst the top ten countries projected to experience the largest population-weighted labour losses.

    “Under future warming, both India and Pakistan are amongst the top ten countries projected to experience the largest population-weighted labour losses, together with China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sudan, Vietnam, Nigeria, Thailand and Philippines (Parsons et al 2021).”

    From Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts (2023) · cites this paper as Parsons et al 2021

    The Discussion states that India and Pakistan are among the countries with the largest population-weighted labor losses under future warming, and the Fig. 6 caption describes a top-ten ranking. Our copy also names China, Indonesia and Bangladesh, but the passages do not establish that Sudan, Vietnam, Nigeria, Thailand and the Philippines complete the cited top-ten list. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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  • India faces the largest impacts of heat on heavy manual labour such as agriculture and construction, with over 101 billion working hours lost per year (out of the global sum of 228 billion).

    “Therefore, it is not surprising that India faces the largest impacts of heat on heavy manual labour such as agriculture and construction, with over 101 billion working hours lost per year (out of the global sum of 228 billion; Parsons et al 2021).”

    From Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts (2023) · cites this paper as Parsons et al 2021

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Authors
Parsons, L. A., Shindell, D., Tigchelaar, M., Zhang, Y., & Spector, J. T.
Affiliations
  • Duke University (US)
  • Stanford University (US)
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
  • University of Washington (US)
Corresponding author
Parsons, Luke A.
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2021-12-14
Volume
12
Issue
1
Pages
7286-7286
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-27328-y
PMC
PMC8671389
OpenAlex
W4200547898
Cited by
126
References
14
Citations by year
2026: 22 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 2
FWCI
11.00
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC19M0138, NNX16AQ30G)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Social Sciences › Health › Occupational Health and Global Justice
Keywords
heat stress, occupational heat exposure, labor productivity loss, global warming, worker adaptation
MeSH terms
Shift Work Schedule, Workforce, Adaptation, Physiological, Efficiency, Forecasting, Hot Temperature, Humans, Humidity, Occupational Exposure, Climate Change, Global Warming

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