The DOI matches its Crossref record; 4 of the 4 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework
Open accessAbstract
A profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45–62% electrification rate, 47–78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2–7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5–2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64–1,649 MtCO 2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technology choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technology breakthroughs, production and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality.
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Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement
van Soest, H. L., den Elzen, M. G. J., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x · Cited by 568
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H. L., Harmsen, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Iacobuta, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6 · Cited by 467
Self-citationZero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M., Knutti, R., Alcamo, J., Riahi, K., & Hare, W. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007 · Cited by 361
The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Hanssen, S. V., Daioglou, V., Steinmann, Z. J. N., Doelman, J. C., Van Vuuren, D. P., & Huijbregts, M. A. J. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0885-y · Cited by 301
Cited by
Green financing role on renewable energy dependence and energy transition in E7 economies
Wang, S., Sun, L., & Iqbal, S. (2022) · Renewable Energy · doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.10.067 · Cited by 325
Sun, Y., Chen, X., Wu, S., Wei, W., Wang, W., & Deng, S. (2022) · Applied Thermal Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2022.118401 · Cited by 64
Metadata
- Authors
- Zhang, S., & Chen, W.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2022-01-10
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 87-87
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4205617679
- Cited by
- 550
- References
- 4
- FWCI
- 30.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Zhang, S., & Chen, W. (2022). Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27671-0
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