Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
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Abstract
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
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Under a sensitivity analysis assuming naturally acquired immunity decayed to 85% in 365 days, population immunity by 31 July 2022 was 48% (42-54%).
“Sensitivity analyses assuming exponentially decaying immunity from natural infection yielded population immunity of 48% (42–54%) or 36% (31–41%) if such naturally acquired immunity decayed to 85% in 365 days15 or to 75% in 100 days16,17, respectively”
From Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron BA.2 variant in a SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive population (2023) · cites this paper as [15]
The Waning immunity and Model assumptions sections describe scenarios in which immunity from prior infection wanes, but do not give an assumption of 85% remaining after 365 days. Searches for that assumption and for the 31 July 2022 population-immunity estimate found no passage reporting 48% (42–54%). Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
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- James D. Munday 1 , Rachel Lowe 1 , Gwenan M. Knight 1 , Quentin J. Leclerc 1 , Damien C. Tully 1 , David Hodgson 1 , Rachael Pung 1 , Joel Hellewell 1 , Mihaly Koltai 1 , David Simons 1 , Kaja Abbas 1 , Adam J. Kucharski 1 , Simon R. Procter 1 , Frank G. Sandmann 1 , Carl A. B. Pearson 1 , Kiesha Prem 1 , Alicia Showering 1 , Sophie R. Meakin 1 , Kathleen O'Reilly 1 , Ciara V. McCarthy 1 , Matthew Quaife 1 , Kerry L. M. Wong 1 , Yalda Jafari 1 , Arminder K. Deol 1 , Rein M. G. J. Houben 1 , Charlie Diamond 1 , Thibaut Jombart 1 , C. Julian Villabona-Arenas 1 , William Waites 1 , Rosalind M. Eggo 1 , Akira Endo 1 , Hamish P. Gibbs 1 , Petra Klepac 1 , Jack Williams 1 , Billy J. Quilty 1 , Oliver Brady 1 , Jon C. Emery 1 , Katherine E. Atkins 1 , Lloyd A. C. Chapman 1 , Katharine Sherratt 1 , Sam Abbott 1 , Nikos I. Bosse 1 , Paul Mee 1 , Sebastian Funk 1 , Jiayao Lei 1 , Yang Liu 1 , Stefan Flasche 1 , James W. Rudge 1 , Fiona Yueqian Sun 1 , Graham Medley 1 , Timothy W. Russell 1 , Amy Gimma 1 , Stéphane Hué 1 , Christopher I. Jarvis 1 , Emilie Finch 1 & Samuel Clifford 1
Cited by
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Lau, J. J., Cheng, S. M. S., Leung, K., Lee, C. K., Hachim, A., Tsang, L. C. H., Yam, K. W. H., Chaothai, S., Kwan, K. K. H., Chai, Z. Y. H., et al. (2023) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02219-5 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
- Authors
- Barnard, R. C., Davies, N. G., Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group, Munday, J. D., Lowe, R., Knight, G. M., Leclerc, Q. J., Tully, D. C., Hodgson, D., Pung, R., Hellewell, J., Koltai, M., Simons, D., Abbas, K., Kucharski, A. J., Procter, S. R., Sandmann, F. G., Pearson, C. A. B., Prem, K., Showering, A., Meakin, S. R., O’Reilly, K., McCarthy, C. V., Quaife, M., Wong, K. L. M., Jafari, Y., Deol, A. K., Houben, R. M. G. J., Diamond, C., Jombart, T., Villabona-Arenas, C. J., Waites, W., Eggo, R. M., Endo, A., Gibbs, H. P., Klepac, P., Williams, J., Quilty, B. J., Brady, O., Emery, J. C., Atkins, K. E., Chapman, L. A. C., Sherratt, K., Abbott, S., Bosse, N. I., Mee, P., Funk, S., Lei, J., Liu, Y., Flasche, S., Rudge, J. W., Sun, F. Y., Medley, G., Russell, T. W., Gimma, A., Hué, S., Jarvis, C. I., Finch, E., Clifford, S., Jit, M., & Edmunds, W. J.
- Affiliations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Barnard, Rosanna C.
- ORCID
- Barnard, Rosanna C.
- Davies, Nicholas G.
- Munday, James D.
- Lowe, Rachel
- Knight, Gwenan M.
- Leclerc, Quentin J.
- Tully, Damien C.
- Hodgson, David
- Pung, Rachael
- Hellewell, Joel
- Simons, David
- Abbas, Kaja
- Kucharski, Adam J.
- Procter, Simon R.
- Sandmann, Frank G.
- Pearson, Carl A. B.
- Prem, Kiesha
- Showering, Alicia
- Meakin, Sophie R.
- O’Reilly, Kathleen
- McCarthy, Ciara V.
- Quaife, Matthew
- Wong, Kerry L. M.
- Jafari, Yalda
- Deol, Arminder K.
- Houben, Rein M. G. J.
- Diamond, Charlie
- Jombart, Thibaut
- Waites, William
- Eggo, Rosalind M.
- Endo, Akira
- Gibbs, Hamish P.
- Klepac, Petra
- Quilty, Billy J.
- Brady, Oliver
- Emery, Jon C.
- Atkins, Katherine E.
- Chapman, Lloyd A. C.
- Sherratt, Katharine
- Abbott, Sam
- Bosse, Nikos I.
- Mee, Paul
- Funk, Sebastian
- Lei, Jiayao
- Liu, Yang
- Flasche, Stefan
- Rudge, James W.
- Sun, Fiona Yueqian
- Medley, Graham
- Russell, Timothy W.
- Gimma, Amy
- Hué, Stéphane
- Jarvis, Christopher I.
- Finch, Emilie
- Clifford, Samuel
- Jit, Mark
- Edmunds, W. John
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2022-08-19
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4879-4879
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9389516
- OpenAlex
- W4292315763
- Cited by
- 68
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 8.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- Strathprints: The University of Strathclyde institutional repository (University of Strathclyde) (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission (101003688)
- RCUK | Medical Research Council (MC_PC_19065)
- DH | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR200929, NIHR200908, PR-OD-1017-20002)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission, Omicron variant, COVID-19 pandemic, booster vaccination, waning immunity, hospitalization, COVID-19 mortality, behavior change, seasonal variation, England
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