Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern
Open accessAbstract
Background: A rapid increase in cases due to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in highly vaccinated populations has raised concerns about the effectiveness of current vaccines. Methods: We used a test-negative case-control design to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic disease caused by the Omicron and Delta variants in England. VE was calculated after primary immunisation with two BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 doses, and at 2+ weeks following a BNT162b2 booster. Results: Between 27 November and 06 December 2021, 581 and 56,439 eligible Omicron and Delta cases respectively were identified. There were 130,867 eligible test-negative controls. There was no effect against Omicron from 15 weeks after two ChAdOx1 doses, while VE after two BNT162b2 doses was 88.0% (95%CI: 65.9 to 95.8%) 2-9 weeks after dose 2, dropping to between 34 and 37% from 15 weeks post dose 2.From two weeks after a BNT162b2 booster, VE increased to 71.4% (95%CI: 41.8 to 86.0%) for ChAdOx1 primary course recipients and 75.5% (95%CI: 56.1 to 86.3%) for BNT162b2 primary course recipients. For cases with Delta, VE was 41.8% (95%CI: 39.4-44.1%) at 25+ weeks after two ChAdOx1 doses, increasing to 93.8% (95%CI: 93.2-94.3%) after a BNT162b2 booster. With a BNT162b2 primary course, VE was 63.5% (95%CI: 61.4 to 65.5%) 25+ weeks after dose 2, increasing to 92.6% (95%CI: 92.0-93.1%) two weeks after the booster. Conclusions: Primary immunisation with two BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 doses provided no or limited protection against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant. Boosting with BNT162b2 following either primary course significantly increased protection.
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TL;DR
In England, a test-negative case–control study found that COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron infection was substantially lower than against delta and waned rapidly after two doses. Booster doses with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 restored substantial protection, but this protection also declined over the short follow-up period.
Key findings
- Among 886,774 eligible omicron cases, 204,154 delta cases, and 1,572,621 test-negative controls, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was higher for delta than omicron at all time points and for all primary-course/booster combinations.
- After two BNT162b2 doses, omicron vaccine effectiveness was 65.5% (95% CI, 63.9–67.0) at 2–4 weeks, falling to 8.8% (95% CI, 7.0–10.5) at ≥25 weeks; after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 doses, no effect against omicron was noted from 20 weeks.
- A BNT162b2 booster after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 increased omicron vaccine effectiveness to 62.4% (95% CI, 61.8–63.0) at 2–4 weeks, decreasing to 39.6% (95% CI, 38.0–41.1) at ≥10 weeks; after BNT162b2 primary course, it increased to 67.2% (95% CI, 66.5–67.8) and declined to 45.7% (95% CI, 44.7–46.7).
- An mRNA-1273 booster after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 increased omicron vaccine effectiveness to 70.1% (95% CI, 69.5–70.7) at 2–4 weeks and decreased to 60.9% (95% CI, 59.7–62.1) at 5–9 weeks; after BNT162b2 primary course, it increased to 73.9% (95% CI, 73.1–74.6) and fell to 64.4% (95% CI, 62.6–66.1) at 5–9 weeks.
Methods
- Test-negative case–control design in England comparing odds of vaccination in symptomatic PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 cases with symptomatic test-negative controls, using data from November 27, 2021, to January 12, 2022.
- Cases were classified as omicron or delta by whole-genome sequencing, genotyping, or S target–negative status; vaccination data came from the National Immunization Management System, with 91.8% of eligible tests linked.
- Logistic regression estimated vaccine effectiveness adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, race/ethnic group, foreign travel, geographic region, test date, health/social care worker status, clinical risk group, clinically extremely vulnerable status, and previous positive test.
Limitations
- The authors state they could not determine protection against severe disease because of the small number of omicron hospitalizations and the natural lag between infection and severe outcomes.
- The authors note possible residual confounding from travelers and contacts of travelers, uncertainty from relatively small omicron case numbers, inability to break down estimates by age and clinical risk group, a small and potentially different unvaccinated comparator group, short follow-up after booster vaccination, and possible misclassification from PCR testing and S target–negative status.
- The authors also state that populations receiving different vaccines or boosters differed, and that the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 booster analysis was particularly likely to be biased because this vaccine was not recommended as a booster in the United Kingdom; the observational design makes confounding by indication evident.
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Claims the paper makes
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- Findingown data
After a BNT162b2 primary course, the mRNA-1273 booster increased vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron to 73.9% (95% CI, 73.1 to 74.6) at 2 to 4 weeks.
“After a BNT162b2 primary course, the mRNA-1273 booster increased vaccine effectiveness to 73.9% (95% CI, 73.1 to 74.6) at 2 to 4 weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After a BNT162b2 primary course, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron fell to 64.4% (95% CI, 62.6 to 66.1) at 5 to 9 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster.
“vaccine effectiveness fell to 64.4% (95% CI, 62.6 to 66.1) at 5 to 9 weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The vaccine effectiveness of two doses of mRNA-1273 against symptomatic omicron was 75.1% (95% CI, 70.8 to 78.7) after 2 to 4 weeks.
“The vaccine effectiveness of two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine had a similar reduction over time from 75.1% (95% CI, 70.8 to 78.7) after 2 to 4 weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 started at 82.8% (95% CI, 74.5 to 88.4) after 2 to 4 weeks.
“With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course started at 82.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 74.5 to 88.4) after 2 to 4 weeks”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Vaccine effectiveness after two BNT162b2 doses against symptomatic omicron dropped to 8.8% (95% CI, 7.0 to 10.5) at 25 or more weeks.
“dropping to 8.8% (95% CI, 7.0 to 10.5) at 25 or more weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 waned to 43.5% (95% CI, 42.4 to 44.5) after 25 or more weeks.
“but waned to 43.5% (95% CI, 42.4 to 44.5) after 25 or more weeks”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among BNT162b2 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron declined to 45.7% (95% CI, 44.7 to 46.7) at 10 or more weeks after a BNT162b2 booster.
“before declining to 45.7% (95% CI, 44.7 to 46.7) at 10 or more weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron increased to 62.4% (95% CI, 61.8 to 63.0) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster.
“Among ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness increased to 62.4% (95% CI, 61.8 to 63.0) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among BNT162b2 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron increased to 67.2% (95% CI, 66.5 to 67.8) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster.
“Among BNT162b2 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness increased to 67.2% (95% CI, 66.5 to 67.8) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Vaccine effectiveness after two BNT162b2 doses against symptomatic omicron was 65.5% (95% CI, 63.9 to 67.0) at 2 to 4 weeks.
“vaccine effectiveness after two BNT162b2 doses was 65.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 63.9 to 67.0) at 2 to 4 weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The vaccine effectiveness of two doses of mRNA-1273 against symptomatic omicron was 14.9% (95% CI, 3.9 to 24.7) after 25 or more weeks.
“to 14.9% (95% CI, 3.9 to 24.7) after 25 or more weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After an mRNA-1273 primary course, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron increased to 66.3% (95% CI, 63.7 to 68.8) at 2 to 4 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster.
“and 66.3% (95% CI, 63.7 to 68.8) at 2 to 4 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After an mRNA-1273 primary course, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron increased to 64.9% (95% CI, 62.3 to 67.3) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster.
“After an mRNA-1273 primary course, vaccine effectiveness increased to 64.9% (95% CI, 62.3 to 67.3) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron decreased to 39.6% (95% CI, 38.0 to 41.1) at 10 or more weeks after a BNT162b2 booster.
“before decreasing to 39.6% (95% CI, 38.0 to 41.1) at 10 or more weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Vaccine effectiveness after two BNT162b2 doses against symptomatic omicron was 15.4% (95% CI, 14.2 to 16.6) at 15 to 19 weeks.
“dropping to 15.4% (95% CI, 14.2 to 16.6) after 15 to 19 weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron increased to 70.1% (95% CI, 69.5 to 70.7) at 2 to 4 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster.
“Vaccine effectiveness after a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course increased to 70.1% (95% CI, 69.5 to 70.7) at 2 to 4 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was higher for the delta variant than for the omicron variant at all time points investigated and for all combinations of primary course and booster vaccines.
“At all time points investigated and for all combinations of primary course and booster vaccines, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was higher for the delta variant than for the omicron variant.”
- Also stated in: § Vaccine Effectiveness, Omicron Variant · plain
“Vaccine effectiveness was lower for the omicron variant than for the delta variant at all intervals after vaccination and for all combinations of primary courses and booster doses investigated.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Vaccine Effectiveness, Omicron Variant · plain
- Findingown data
Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron was 46.7% (95% CI, 34.3 to 56.7) at 5 to 9 weeks among those who received a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course with a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 booster vaccine.
“Waning efficacy was most notable against the omicron variant, for which the vaccine effectiveness was 46.7% (95% CI, 34.3 to 56.7) at 5 to 9 weeks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic omicron decreased to 60.9% (95% CI, 59.7 to 62.1) at 5 to 9 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster.
“and decreased to 60.9% (95% CI, 59.7 to 62.1) at 5 to 9 weeks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
No effect against the omicron variant was noted from 20 weeks after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 doses.
“No effect against the omicron variant was noted from 20 weeks after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 doses”
- Also stated in: § Vaccine Effectiveness, Omicron Variant · hedged
“Among those who had received two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 doses, almost no protective effect of vaccination against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron variant was noted from 20 to 24 weeks after the second dose.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Vaccine Effectiveness, Omicron Variant · hedged
- Interpretationown data
Two doses of vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 are insufficient to give adequate levels of protection against infection with the omicron variant and mild disease.
“Our findings indicate that two doses of vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 are insufficient to give adequate levels of protection against infection with the omicron variant and mild disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Protection against symptomatic omicron after a booster waned over time.
“but that protection waned over time”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Vaccine effectiveness against severe disease caused by the omicron variant is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease.
“on the basis of experience with other variants and early estimates of hospitalization rates, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [19] 2021, Partial resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants to vaccine-elicited antibodies and convalescent sera, iScience source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [36]
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- Interpretationown data
Primary immunization with two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 vaccine provided limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron variant.
“Primary immunization with two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 vaccine provided limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron variant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Boosters will probably offer even greater levels of protection against severe and fatal disease.
“Boosters will probably offer even greater levels of protection against severe and fatal disease.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Previous experience with the delta variant in the United Kingdom suggested that protection against hospitalization after two doses of vaccine was well maintained.
“Previous experience with the delta variant in the United Kingdom suggested that protection against hospitalization after two doses of vaccine was well maintained.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] 2021, Partial resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants to vaccine-elicited antibodies and convalescent sera, iScience source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
A BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 booster after either the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 primary course substantially increased protection against symptomatic omicron.
“A BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 booster after either the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 primary course substantially increased protection”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
In this analysis that covers all ages, confounding from differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated persons may be less of an issue than in analyses restricted to elderly populations.
“In this analysis that covers all ages, this type of confounding may be less of an issue than in analyses restricted to elderly populations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
During this early period of circulation of the new variant, a large proportion of cases occurred among travelers.
“During this early period of circulation of the new variant, a large proportion of cases occurred among travelers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
The populations that have received different vaccines as a primary course are different.
“The populations that have received different vaccines as a primary course are different.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Our findings indicate that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron variant is substantially lower than with the delta variant.
“Our findings indicate that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron variant is substantially lower than with the delta variant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
A test-negative case-control design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 caused by the omicron variant as compared with the delta variant in persons 18 years of age or older.
“We used a test-negative case–control design to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 caused by the omicron variant as compared with the delta variant in persons 18 years of age or older.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] Pouwels KB , Pritchard E , Matthews PC , Stoesser N , Eyre DW , Vihta K-D , et al. Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK. medRxiv. 2021:2021.08.18.21262237. source
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- Study design and conductown data
A total of 91.8% of eligible tests could be linked to the National Immunization Management System.
“A total of 91.8% of eligible tests could be linked to the NIMS.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The positive predictive value of S target-negative status for identifying the omicron variant was more than 80% from November 27, 2021.
“We therefore used cases tested on or after November 27, when the positive predictive value was more than 80%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Although adjustments were made for age and clinical risk factors, age differences between populations receiving different primary courses may explain some of the differences in the findings for the primary course.
“Although adjustments were made for age and clinical risk factors, these age differences may explain some of the differences in the findings for the primary course”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
We are unable to determine protection against severe forms of disease using the test-negative case-control method here owing to the small number of omicron cases resulting in hospitalization so far in our data set and the natural lag between infection and more severe outcomes.
“We are unable to determine protection against severe forms of disease using the test-negative case–control method here owing to the small number of omicron cases resulting in hospitalization so far in our data set and the natural lag between infection and more severe outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Higher neutralizing activity was observed after a booster dose.
“Higher neutralizing activity was observed after a booster dose.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [3] Cele S , Jackson L , Khan K , Khoury D , Moyo-Gwete T , Tegally H , et al. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron has extensive but incomplete escape of Pfizer BNT162b2 elicited neutralization and requires ACE2 for infection. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.08.21267417. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [4] Wilhelm A , Widera M , Grikscheit K , Toptan T , Schenk B , Pallas C , et al. Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and monoclonal antibodies. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.07.21267432. source
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- cites [34]
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- Study design and conductreasoning
Data were restricted to persons who had reported symptoms and gave a symptom-onset date within the 10 days before testing to account for reduced PCR sensitivity beyond this period in an infection event.
“Data were restricted to persons who had reported symptoms and gave a symptom-onset date within the 10 days before testing to account for reduced PCR sensitivity beyond this period in an infection event.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
These findings are consistent with neutralization data for the omicron variant.
“These findings are consistent with neutralization data for the omicron variant.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [3] Cele S , Jackson L , Khan K , Khoury D , Moyo-Gwete T , Tegally H , et al. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron has extensive but incomplete escape of Pfizer BNT162b2 elicited neutralization and requires ACE2 for infection. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.08.21267417. source
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- cites [4] Wilhelm A , Widera M , Grikscheit K , Toptan T , Schenk B , Pallas C , et al. Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and monoclonal antibodies. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.07.21267432. source
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- cites [5] Khoury DS , Cromer D , Reynaldi A , Schlub TE , Wheatley AK , Juno JA , et al. Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nature medicine. 2021. source
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- Premisecitation
Cellular immunity is also likely to play an important role in protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants.
“Cellular immunity is also likely to play an important role in protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [35]
Not checked in the free run.
- May combine two claims. 19
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 3
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAfter a booster with an mRNA vaccine, vaccine effectiveness against delta reached more than 95% with any of the primary courses and remained high up to the longest follow-up points (maximum, ≥10 weeks).
“After a booster with an mRNA vaccine, vaccine effectiveness reached more than 95% with any of the primary courses and remained high up to the longest follow-up points (maximum, ≥10 weeks).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationEmerging laboratory data indicate a substantially reduced neutralizing antibody response to the omicron variant as compared with the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 or the delta variant in vaccinated persons, although booster doses improved neutralizing activity.
“Emerging laboratory data indicate a substantially reduced neutralizing antibody response to the omicron variant as compared with the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 or the delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated persons, although booster doses improved neutralizing activity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [3] Cele S , Jackson L , Khan K , Khoury D , Moyo-Gwete T , Tegally H , et al. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron has extensive but incomplete escape of Pfizer BNT162b2 elicited neutralization and requires ACE2 for infection. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.08.21267417. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [4] Wilhelm A , Widera M , Grikscheit K , Toptan T , Schenk B , Pallas C , et al. Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and monoclonal antibodies. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.07.21267432. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [5] Khoury DS , Cromer D , Reynaldi A , Schlub TE , Wheatley AK , Juno JA , et al. Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nature medicine. 2021. source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWith previous variants, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalization and death, has been higher and has been retained for a longer period than effectiveness against mild disease.
“With previous variants, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalization and death, has been higher and has been retained for a longer period than effectiveness against mild disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataBoosting with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 provided a substantial increase in protection against mild disease, although waning occurred over time.
“Boosting with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 provided a substantial increase in protection against mild disease, although waning occurred over time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationCovid-19 vaccines are highly effective against symptomatic disease and, more so, against severe disease and fatal outcomes caused by the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 as well as the alpha variant.
“Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccines are highly effective against symptomatic disease and, more so, against severe disease and fatal outcomes caused by the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 as well as the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant that predominated in early 2021.”
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May combine two claims.
PremisecitationNeutralizing antibodies correlate with protection against reinfection and vaccine effectiveness against infection.
“Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection against reinfection and vaccine effectiveness against infection”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [6] Addetia A , Crawford KHD , Dingens A , Zhu H , Roychoudhury P , Huang ML , et al. Neutralizing Antibodies Correlate with Protection from SARS-CoV-2 in Humans during a Fishery Vessel Outbreak with a High Attack Rate. Journal of clinical microbiology. 2020;58(11). source
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Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThird (booster) doses provide a rapid and substantial increase in protection against both mild and severe disease.
“However, third (booster) doses provide a rapid and substantial increase in protection against both mild and severe disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 6 sources checked- cites [19] 2021, Partial resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants to vaccine-elicited antibodies and convalescent sera, iScience source
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May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWaning of protection has been observed with time since vaccination, especially with the delta variant, which is able to at least partially evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity.
“Waning of protection has been observed with time since vaccination, especially with the delta variant, which is able to at least partially evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] Goldberg Y , Mandel M , Bar-On YM , Bodenheimer O , Freedman L , Haas EJ , et al. Waning immunity of the BNT162b2 vaccine: A nationwide study from Israel. medRxiv. 2021:2021.08.24.21262423. source
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May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataOwing to the relatively small number of omicron cases in the United Kingdom, our estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, and we are unable to break down estimates according to population characteristics that may affect vaccine effectiveness.
“Owing to the relatively small number of omicron cases in the United Kingdom, our estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, and we are unable to break down estimates according to population characteristics that may affect vaccine effectiveness (e.g., age and clinical risk group).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn serum specimens obtained from recipients of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, a greater reduction in neutralizing activity was observed, with a high proportion of postvaccination serum samples having neutralizing activity below the limit of quantification in the assay.
“In serum specimens obtained from recipients of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, a greater reduction in neutralizing activity was observed, with a high proportion of postvaccination serum samples having neutralizing activity below the limit of quantification in the assay.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [34]
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe comparator group is unvaccinated persons, who make up a very small proportion of persons in several age cohorts and are likely to differ from the general population according to characteristics that could confound our estimates of vaccine effectiveness.
“In this analysis, our comparator group is unvaccinated persons, who make up a very small proportion of persons in several age cohorts. These persons are likely to differ from the general population according to characteristics that could confound our estimates of vaccine effectiveness.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataAfter two doses, vaccine effectiveness waned rapidly, with very limited vaccine effects seen from 20 weeks after the second dose of any vaccine.
“After two doses, vaccine effectiveness waned rapidly, with very limited vaccine effects seen from 20 weeks after the second dose of any vaccine.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningBooster doses have only recently been rolled out in England; therefore, we are able to estimate vaccine effectiveness for only a short period after booster vaccination, and we do not have information on the duration of protection after a booster dose.
“Booster doses have only recently been rolled out in England; therefore, we are able to estimate vaccine effectiveness for only a short period after booster vaccination, and we do not have information on the duration of protection after a booster dose.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationModest reductions in vaccine effectiveness against infection and mild disease have been observed with the beta and delta variants, although effectiveness against severe disease has remained high for at least 6 months after primary immunization with two Covid-19 vaccine doses.
“Modest reductions in vaccine effectiveness against infection and mild disease have been observed with the beta (B.1.351) and delta variants, although effectiveness against severe disease has remained high for at least 6 months after primary immunization with two Covid-19 vaccine doses.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [16] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [17] Pouwels KB , Pritchard E , Matthews PC , Stoesser N , Eyre DW , Vihta K-D , et al. Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK. medRxiv. 2021:2021.08.18.21262237. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [18] Andrews N , Gower C , Stowe J , Tessier E , Kirsebom F , Gallagher E , et al. Duration of Protection of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Mild and Severe Disease. New England Journal of Medicine (In Press). 2021. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [19] 2021, Partial resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants to vaccine-elicited antibodies and convalescent sera, iScience source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe analysis with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 boosters is particularly likely to be subject to bias because this vaccine was not recommended as a booster in the United Kingdom; therefore, some misclassification may have occurred.
“The analysis with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 boosters is particularly likely to be subject to bias because this vaccine was not recommended as a booster in the United Kingdom; therefore, some misclassification may have occurred”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationCellular immune responses are likely to play a relatively more important role in protection as antibodies wane with time since infection or vaccination; antibody waning may increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection even as cellular immunity probably limits progression to severe disease.
“Cellular immune responses are likely to play a relatively more important role in protection as antibodies wane with time since infection or vaccination; antibody waning may increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection even as cellular immunity probably limits progression to severe disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [35]
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationSouth African, German, and U.K. studies indicate a reduction in neutralizing activity by a factor of 20 to 40 in serum specimens obtained from recipients of two doses of BNT162b2 as compared with neutralization against early pandemic viruses and by a factor of at least 10 as compared with neutralization against the delta variant.
“South African, German, and U.K. studies indicate a reduction in neutralizing activity by a factor of 20 to 40 in serum specimens obtained from recipients of two doses of BNT162b2 as compared with neutralization against early pandemic viruses and by a factor of at least 10 as compared with neutralization against the delta variant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [3] Cele S , Jackson L , Khan K , Khoury D , Moyo-Gwete T , Tegally H , et al. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron has extensive but incomplete escape of Pfizer BNT162b2 elicited neutralization and requires ACE2 for infection. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.08.21267417. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [4] Wilhelm A , Widera M , Grikscheit K , Toptan T , Schenk B , Pallas C , et al. Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and monoclonal antibodies. medRxiv. 2021:2021.12.07.21267432. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [5] Khoury DS , Cromer D , Reynaldi A , Schlub TE , Wheatley AK , Juno JA , et al. Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nature medicine. 2021. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [34]
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe large scale of testing and sequencing in the United Kingdom, as well as the use of a national vaccination register, has enabled rapid evaluation of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with the omicron variant.
“The large scale of testing and sequencing in the United Kingdom, as well as the use of a national vaccination register, has enabled rapid evaluation of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with the omicron variant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningNegative tests taken within 21 days before a subsequent positive test were excluded because chances were high that these were false negatives.
“Negative tests taken within 21 days before a subsequent positive test were also excluded because chances were high that these were false negatives.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataBooster doses resulted in a substantial increase in protection against mild infection; however, waning of protection against symptomatic disease was also seen after booster doses.
“Booster doses resulted in a substantial increase in protection against mild infection; however, waning of protection against symptomatic disease was also seen after booster doses.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenSome misclassification may also have occurred owing to both imperfect sensitivity and specificity of PCR testing, as well as the use of S target-negative status to identify omicron cases.
“Some misclassification may also have occurred owing to both imperfect sensitivity and specificity of PCR testing, as well as the use of S target–negative status to identify omicron cases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningResidual confounding may be present because not all travelers may have been excluded, and contacts of travelers will not have been identified.
“not all travelers may have been excluded, and contacts of travelers will not have been identified. This group is likely to have different exposure than the wider population and may also have different levels of vaccine coverage. Therefore, residual confounding may be present.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Recent analyses using different control groups have shown good concordance between analyses using an unvaccinated control group and analyses estimating relative vaccine effectiveness among persons who have received a booster dose as compared with those who have received two doses.
“Furthermore, recent analyses using different control groups have shown good concordance between analyses using an unvaccinated control group and analyses estimating relative vaccine effectiveness among persons who have received a booster dose as compared with those who have received two doses.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Immune responses to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines wane in the months immediately following administration.
“These vaccines are effective, but the immune response wanes in the months immediately following administration.8,9”
From Immunogenicity and safety of a booster dose of a self-amplifying RNA COVID-19 vaccine (ARCT-154) versus BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine: a double-blind, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3, non-inferiority trial (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
The Discussion says antibodies wane with time since vaccination, which supports waning in one component of the immune response. But it also says cellular immunity probably continues to limit severe disease; the Results measure declining vaccine effectiveness, not a decline in the immune response as a whole. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredReal-world vaccine effectiveness studies during Delta and Omicron circulation showed less vaccine-induced protection against Omicron than against Delta.
“Real-word VE studies published during the periods of circulation of these two variants showed differences in vaccine-induced protection against Delta and Omicron variants-related infections, with less protection against Omicron than Delta [18-22].”
Prior work has demonstrated Omicron BA.1/2's significant immune escape properties.
“Prior work has demonstrated Omicron BA. 1/2's significant immune escape properties [13][14][15][16][17] .”
From Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa (2023) · cites this paper as [14]
The findings are explained by short-lived protection of primary-series vaccination against omicron and more durable protection from natural infection.
“These findings are explained by the short-lived protection of primary-series vaccination against omicron infections3,27 and the more durable protection from natural infection,2,28 as confirmed by the additional analysis of protection as a function of time after previous infection or vaccination (Figure 3).”
From Effects of Previous Infection and Vaccination on Symptomatic Omicron Infections (2022) · cites this paper as [27]
The findings were consistent with those of other studies of vaccine effectiveness against omicron infection.
“Notwithstanding these limitations, findings were consistent with those of other studies of vaccine effectiveness against omicron infection (BA.1 or BA.2 subvariants were not specified).27,32-36”
From Effects of Previous Infection and Vaccination on Symptomatic Omicron Infections (2022) · cites this paper as [27]
Consistent findings were reached, indicating rapid waning of vaccine protection against symptomatic Omicron infection, consistent with findings of other studies for effectiveness against Omicron infection (with no BA.1/BA.2 subvariant specified).
“Notwithstanding these limitations, consistent findings were reached, indicating rapid waning of vaccine protection against symptomatic Omicron infection that are consistent with findings of other studies for effectiveness against Omicron infection (with no BA.1/BA.2 subvariant specified)42–48.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [42]
A test-negative study from England determined that booster mRNA vaccination was associated with increased protection against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 with waning of protection observed 1 to 2 months following booster vaccination.
“Similar to our results, a test-negative study from England determined that booster mRNA vaccination was associated with increased protection against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 with waning of protection observed 1 to 2 months following booster vaccination.5”
Population studies from the UK and Qatar have demonstrated that receipt of a third (booster) dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine increases protection against Omicron infection and severe disease.
“Population studies from the UK and Qatar have demonstrated that receipt of a third (booster) dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine increases protection against Omicron infection and severe disease.4,5”
The cohort from England documented rapid waning of 2-dose mRNA protection with minimal vaccine protection observed 20 weeks after the second dose.
“The cohort from England also documented rapid waning of 2-dose mRNA protection with minimal vaccine protection observed 20 weeks after the second dose.”
A third booster shot may not adequately protect against Omicron infection.
“Even a third booster shot may not adequately protect against Omicron infection 39,41”
From Striking antibody evasion manifested by the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (2022) · cites this paper as [39]
A recent study concluded that two doses of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine provide limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by Omicron, and a booster dose with an mRNA vaccine would increase protection substantially, but only for a short period, falling between 39% and 45% after 2 months.
“A recent study has concluded that two doses of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine provide limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by Omicron, and a ‘booster’ dose with an mRNA vaccine would increase protection substantially, but only for a short period of time, falling between 39% and 45% after 2 months. 29”
From Vaccine mandates for healthcare workers beyond COVID-19 (2023) · cites this paper as [29]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
S target-negative status is described as identifying both variants
MinorThe methods say S target-negative status indicates omicron, while delta almost always has an S target-positive result. The later explanation for changing how delta cases were identified instead refers to S target-negative status as a way to identify delta.
“Beginning on January 10, 2022, delta cases were identified by sequencing and genotyping only because the positive predictive value of S target–negative status to identify the delta variant had decreased and could no longer be used.”
“the omicron variant has been associated with S target–negative results on PCR testing with the TaqPath assay, whereas the delta variant almost always has an S target–positive result.”
Testing data were linked before the study tests existed
MinorThe paper says testing data were linked to the vaccination register on January 18, 2021, but the analysis includes tests through January 12, 2022. It also says the register was accessed on January 18, 2022.
“Testing data were linked to the NIMS on January 18, 2021, through combinations of the unique individual NHS number, date of birth, surname, first name, and postal code with the use of deterministic linkage.”
“The NIMS was accessed on January 18, 2022, for dates of vaccination and vaccine manufacturer, sex, date of birth, race or ethnic group, and residential address.”
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Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
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Self-citationSARS-CoV-2 variant biology: immune escape, transmission and fitness
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Zhou, H., Tada, T., Dcosta, B. M., & Landau, N. R. (2022) · Viruses · doi:10.3390/v14061334 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection
Chemaitelly, H. S., Nagelkerke, N. J. D., Ayoub, H. H., Coyle, P. V., Tang, P., Yassine, H. M., Al-Khatib, H. A., Smatti, M. K., Hasan, M. R., Kanaani, Z. A., et al. (2022) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taac109 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Andrews, N., Stowe, J., Kirsebom, F., Toffa, S., Rickeard, T., Gallagher, E., Gower, C., Kall, M., Groves, N., O’Connell, A.-M., Simons, D., Blomquist, P. B., Zaidi, A., Nash, S., Aziz, N. I. B. A., Thelwall, S., Dabrera, G., Myers, R., Amirthalingam, G., Gharbia, S., Barrett, J. C., Elson, R., Ladhani, S. N., Ferguson, N., Zambon, M., Campbell, C. N., Brown, K., Hopkins, S., Chand, M., Ramsay, M., & Bernal, J. L.
- Affiliations
- St George's, University of London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Bernal, Jamie Lopez
- ORCID
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- openRxiv
- Published
- 2021-12-14
- Volume
- 386
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 1532-1546
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8908811
- OpenAlex
- W4214863616
- Cited by
- 2,420
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 100 · 2025: 212 · 2024: 394 · 2023: 766 · 2022: 928 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 281.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- St George's Online Research Archive (St George's University of London) (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR201395)
- Medical Research Council (MR/R015600/1)
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/M009513/1)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, Omicron variant, Delta variant, BNT162b2, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, mRNA-1273, booster vaccination, waning vaccine effectiveness, symptomatic infection, test-negative case-control design
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Vaccine Efficacy, BNT162 Vaccine, 2019-nCoV Vaccine mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, Humans, Immunization, Secondary, Case-Control Studies
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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