Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
Open accessPreprint — published as 10.1126/science.abg3055 · Paper page
Abstract
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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Mutations at K417, E484, and N501 often reduce their activity, and these antibodies select K417N, E484K, and N501Y in yeast and VSV S libraries.
“They are frequently sensitive to mutation in these residues and select for K417N, E484K and N501Y mutations in SARS-CoV-2 S protein expression libraries in yeast and VSV 12,15,33.”
From mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
The panel also included circulating variant residues K417N, Y453F, S477R, N501Y, and D614G, some linked to rapidly rising case counts.
“Additionally, K417N, Y453F, S477R, N501Y, and D614G represent circulating variants some of which have been associated with rapidly increasing case numbers14,15,19,33–35.”
From mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
Other groups have reported comparable findings with vaccinee and convalescent plasma across various pseudotype and authentic virus assays.
“In addition, similar results have been reported by others using vaccinee and convalescent plasmas and a variety of different pseudotype and authentic virus assays15,31,45–49.”
From mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
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Broad sarbecovirus neutralization by a human monoclonal antibody
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Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Impact in Global Vaccination Programs against SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
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COVID-19 in Children: Where do we Stand?
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- Authors
- Davies, N. G., Abbott, S., Barnard, R. C., Jarvis, C. I., Kucharski, A. J., Munday, J. D., Pearson, C. A. B., Russell, T. W., Tully, D. C., Washburne, A. D., Wenseleers, T., Gimma, A., Waites, W., Wong, K. L. M., van Zandvoort, K., Silverman, J. D., CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Diaz-Ordaz, K., Keogh, R., Eggo, R. M., Funk, S., Jit, M., Atkins, K. E., & Edmunds, W. J.
- Affiliations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- KU Leuven (BE)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Davies, Nicholas G.
- ORCID
- Davies, Nicholas G.
- Abbott, Sam
- Barnard, Rosanna C.
- Jarvis, Christopher I.
- Kucharski, Adam J.
- Munday, James D.
- Pearson, Carl A. B.
- Russell, Timothy W.
- Tully, Damien C.
- Washburne, Alex D.
- Wenseleers, Tom
- Gimma, Amy
- Waites, William
- Wong, Kerry L. M.
- van Zandvoort, Kevin
- Silverman, Justin D.
- Keogh, Ruth
- Eggo, Rosalind M.
- Funk, Sebastian
- Jit, Mark
- Atkins, Katherine E.
- Edmunds, W. John
- Venue
- Science
- Publisher
- openRxiv
- Published
- 2020-12-26
- Volume
- 372
- Issue
- 6538
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8128288
- OpenAlex
- W3134208712
- Cited by
- 2,557
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 54 · 2025: 90 · 2024: 184 · 2023: 323 · 2022: 839 · 2021: 1060 · 2020: 6
- FWCI
- 233.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Northumbria Research Link (Northumbria University) (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Strathprints: The University of Strathclyde institutional repository (University of Strathclyde) (acceptedVersion)
- Informationszentrum Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-016832, OPP1184344, INV-003174)
- University of Kentucky
- University of Bern
- Wellcome Trust (206250, 210758/Z/18/Z, 206250/Z/17/Z, Z/17/Z, 221303/Z/20/Z, 221303, 210758, 218554/Z/19/Z)
- UK Research and Innovation (ES/P010873/1, ES/P010873, MC_PC_19027)
- Universitätsspital Basel
- National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR200908, NIHR200929)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research ((NIHR200929), MR/V027956/1, (NIHR200908), 16/137/109, 16/137/10)
- Research Councils UK (MR/S003975/1, ES/P010873/1)
- Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS-CSF4-Torok)
- University of Warwick
- European Commission (101003688, COVID-19, 19065)
- Public Health England
- CANDU Owners Group
- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
- Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève
- Université de Sfax
- Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (221303/Z/20/Z)
- Medical Research Council (MR/S003975/1, 206250/Z/17/Z, MR/V027956/1, NIHR200908, COVID-19, MC_PC_19065)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/P010873/1)
- Statens Serum Institut
- Research England
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (T32GM145449)
- H2020 European Research Council (757688)
- Health Data Research UK
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7 variant, reproduction number, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, epidemic forecasting, COVID-19 containment measures, vaccine rollout, school closures, England
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control, England, Europe, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Mutation, Severity of Illness Index, Socioeconomic Factors, United States, Viral Load, Basic Reproduction Number, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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