CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 101Concrete and Cement Materials ResearchCarbon Dioxide Capture TechnologiesClimate Change Policy and Economics

The DOI matches its Crossref record; the references it cites are not checked yet.

The climate benefits from cement carbonation are being overestimated

Open access
Van Roijen, Elisabeth, Sethares, Kati, Kendall, Alissa, Miller, Sabbie A.·2024·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-48965-zPMC PMC11156638
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Rapid decarbonization of the cement industry is critical to meeting climate goals. Oversimplification of direct air capture benefits from hydrated cement carbonation has skewed the ability to derive decarbonization solutions. Here, we present both global cement carbonation magnitude and its dynamic effect on cumulative radiative forcing. From 1930–2015, models suggest approximately 13.8 billion metric tons (Gt) of CO 2 was re-absorbed globally. However, we show that the slow rate of carbonation leads to a climate effect that is approximately 60% smaller than these apparent benefits. Further, we show that on a per kilogram (kg) basis, demolition emissions from crushing concrete at end-of-life could roughly equal the magnitude of carbon-uptake during the demolition phase. We investigate the sensitivity of common decarbonization strategies, such as utilizing supplementary cementitious materials, on the carbonation process and highlight the importance of the timing of emissions release and uptake on influencing cumulative radiative forcing. Given the urgency of determining effective pathways for decarbonizing cement, this work provides a reference for overcoming some flawed interpretations of the benefits of carbonation.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41467-024-48965-z

Cites

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet

References 47 · Cited by 101

Research works printed but not linked: 42

  1. Kurtis, K. E. Innovations in cement-based materials: addressing sustainability in structural and infrastructure applications. MRS Bulletin 40, 1102–1109 (2015). · DOI
  2. Damtoft, J. S., Lukasik, J., Herfort, D., Sorrentino, D. & Gartner, E. M. Sustainable development and climate change initiatives. Cem. Concr. Res. 38, 115–127 (2008). · DOI
  3. Gartner, E. Industrially interesting approaches to “low-CO2” cements. Cem. Concr. Res. 34, 1489–1498 (2004). · DOI
  4. Scrivener, K. L., John, V. M., Gartner, E. M., Polytechnique, É. & Lausanne, F. De. Eco-efficient cements: potential economically viable solutions for a low-CO2 cement-based materials industry. Cem. Concr. Res. 114, 2–26 (2018). · DOI · Paper page
  5. Habert, G. et al. Environmental impacts and decarbonization strategies in the cement and concrete industries. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 559–573 (2020). · DOI
  6. Obrist, M. D., Kannan, R., Schmidt, T. J. & Kober, T. Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions Swiss TIMES energy system model. J. Clean. Prod. 288, 125413 (2021). · DOI
  7. Budinis, S. et al. An assessment of CCS costs, barriers and potential. Energy Strateg. Rev. 22, 61–81 (2018). · DOI
  8. Cao, Z. et al. The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle. Nat. Commun. 11, 3777 (2020). · DOI
  9. Pade, C. & Guimaraes, M. The CO2 uptake of concrete in a 100 year perspective. Cem. Concr. Res. 37, 1348–1356 (2007). · DOI
  10. Friedlingstein, P. et al. Global carbon budget 2022. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14, 4811–4900 (2022). · DOI
  11. Moro, C., Francioso, V., Lopez-arias, M. & Velay-lizancos, M. The impact of CO 2 uptake rate on the environmental performance of cementitious composites: a new dynamic global warming potential analysis. J. Clean. Prod. 375, 134155 (2022). · DOI
  12. Saade, M. R. M., Yahia, A. & Amor, B. Is crushed concrete carbonation significant enough to be considered as a carbon mitigation strategy? Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 104049 (2022). · DOI
  13. Papadakis, V. G., Vayenas, C. G. & Fardis, M. N. Experimental investigation and mathematical modeling of the concrete carbonation problem. Chem. Eng. Sci. 46, 1333–1338 (1991). · DOI
  14. Liu, P., Yu, Z. & Chen, Y. Carbonation depth model and carbonated acceleration rate of concrete under different environment. Cem. Concr. Compos. 114, 103736 (2020). · DOI
  15. Hills, T. P., Gordon, F., Florin, N. H. & Fennell, P. S. Statistical analysis of the carbonation rate of concrete. Cem. Concr. Res. 72, 98–107 (2015). · DOI
  16. Souto-Martinez, A., Delesky, E. A., Foster, K. E. O. & Srubar, W. V. A mathematical model for predicting the carbon sequestration potential of ordinary portland cement (OPC) concrete. Constr. Build. Mater. 147, 417–427 (2017). · DOI
  17. von Greve-Dierfeld, S. et al. Understanding the carbonation of concrete with supplementary cementitious materials: a critical review by RILEM TC 281-CCC. Mater. Struct. 53, 136 (2020). · DOI · Paper page
  18. Juenger, M. C. G. & Siddique, R. Recent advances in understanding the role of supplementary cementitious materials in concrete. Cem. Concr. Res. 78, 71–80 (2015). · DOI
  19. Borosnyói, A. Long term durability performance and mechanical properties of high performance concretes with combined use of supplementary cementing materials. Constr. Build. Mater. 112, 307–324 (2016). · DOI
  20. Olsson, J. A., Miller, S. A. & Alexander, M. G. Near-term pathways for decarbonizing global concrete production. Nat. Commun. 14, 4574 (2023). · DOI
  21. Mehta, K. & Monteiro, P. J. M. Concrete: Microstructure, Properties, and Materials 4th edn, Ch. 2. 704 (McGraw Hill Education, 2014).
  22. Kendall, A. Time-adjusted global warming potentials for LCA and carbon footprints. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 17, 1042–1049 (2012). · DOI
  23. Cowie, A. L., Kirschbaum, M. U. F. & Ward, M. Options for including all lands in a future greenhouse gas accounting framework. Environ. Sci. Policy 10, 306–321 (2007). · DOI
  24. Kendall, A., Chang, B. & Sharpe, B. Accounting for time-dependent effects in biofuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions calculations. Environ. Sci. Technol. 43, 7142–7147 (2009). · DOI
  25. Moura Costa, P. & Wilson, C. An equivalence factor between CO2 avoided emissions and sequestration - description and application in forestry. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang. 5, 51–60 (2000). · DOI
  26. Brandão, M., Kirschbaum, M. U. F., Cowie, A. L. & Hjuler, S. V. Quantifying the climate change effects of bioenergy systems: comparison of 15 impact assessment methods. GCB Bioenergy 11, 727–743 (2019). · DOI · Paper page
  27. Dias, A. et al. Environmental and economic comparison of natural and recycled aggregates using LCA. Recycling 7, 43 (2022). · DOI
  28. Nedeljković, M. et al. Energy consumption of a laboratory jaw crusher during normal and high strength concrete recycling. Miner. Eng. 204, 108421 (2023). · DOI
  29. Miller, S. A., Jiang, D. & Myers, R. J. Cement substitution with secondary materials can reduce annual global CO 2 emissions by up to 1. 3 gigatons. Nat. Commun. 13, 5758 (2022). · DOI
  30. Duchesne, J. Alternative supplementary cementitious materials for sustainable concrete structures: a review on characterization and properties. Waste Biomass-. Valoriz. 12, 1219–1236 (2021). · DOI
  31. Brinkman, L. Environmental impacts and environmental justice implications of supplementary cementitious materials for use in concrete environmental impacts and environmental justice implications of supplementary cementitious materials for use in concrete. Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain. 1, 025003 (2021). · DOI
  32. Elahi, A., Basheer, P. A. M., Nanukuttan, S. V. & Khan, Q. U. Z. Mechanical and durability properties of high performance concretes containing supplementary cementitious materials. Constr. Build. Mater. 24, 292–299 (2010). · DOI
  33. Bai, G., Zhu, C., Liu, C. & Liu, B. An evaluation of the recycled aggregate characteristics and the recycled aggregate concrete mechanical properties. Constr. Build. Mater. 240, 117978 (2020). · DOI
  34. Abdul-Wahab, S. A. Impact of fugitive dust emissions from cement plants on nearby communities. Ecol. Modell. 195, 338–348 (2006). · DOI
  35. Gotoh, T., Nishimura, T., Nakata, M., Nakaguchi, Y. & Hiraki, K. Air pollution by concrete dust from the great hanshin earthquake. J. Environ. Qual. 31, 718–723 (2002). · DOI
  36. Adeyanju, E. & Okeke, C. A. Exposure effect to cement dust pollution: a mini review. SN Appl. Sci. 1, 1–17 (2019). · DOI
  37. Butera, S., Christensen, T. H. & Astrup, T. F. Life cycle assessment of construction and demolition waste management. Waste Manag 44, 196–205 (2015). · DOI · Paper page
  38. Cao, Z., Shen, L., Løvik, A. N., Müller, D. B. & Liu, G. Elaborating the history of our cementing societies: an in-use stock perspective. Environ. Sci. Technol. 51, 11468–11475 (2017). · DOI
  39. Junnila, S., Horvath, A. & Guggemos, A. A. Life-cycle assessment of office buildings in Europe and the United States. J. Infrastruct. Syst. 12, 10–17 (2006). · DOI
  40. Kapur, A., Keoleian, G., Kendall, A. & Kesler, S. E. Dynamic modeling of in-use cement stocks in the United States. J. Ind. Ecol. 12, 539–556 (2008). · DOI
  41. Andersson, R., Fridh, K., Stripple, H. & Häglund, M. Calculating CO2 uptake for existing concrete structures during and after service life. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47, 11625–11633 (2013). · DOI · Paper page
  42. Steiner, S., Proske, T., Winnefeld, F. & Lothenbach, B. Effect of limestone fillers on CO2 and water vapour diffusion in carbonated concrete. Cement 8, 100027 (2022). · DOI

Metadata

Authors
Van Roijen, E., Sethares, K., Kendall, A., & Miller, S. A.
Affiliations
University of California, Davis (US)
Corresponding author
Miller, Sabbie A.
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2024-06-06
Volume
15
Issue
1
Pages
4848-4848
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-48965-z
PMC
PMC11156638
OpenAlex
W4399394704
Cited by
101
References
47
Citations by year
2026: 49 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 4
FWCI
16.86
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Science Foundation (CBET-2033966)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Concrete and Cement Materials Research
  • Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords
cement carbonation, cement industry decarbonization, CO2 sequestration, radiative forcing, direct air capture, supplementary cementitious materials

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review