The DOI matches its Crossref record; 29 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 10 of the 15 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Open accessAbstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. Current and future climate change is expected to impact human health, both indirectly and directly, through increasing temperatures. Climate change has already had an impact and is responsible for 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, with increases in mortality observed globally.
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15 Own result · 4 Own method · 3 Sources not found · 3 Own interpretation · 2 Supported · 2 Supported so far · 2 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“These studies are often conducted in the climate science disciplines and rarely take the additional step of estimating associated human health impacts9–11.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [9] Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Detecting and attributing health burdens to climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 085004 (2017). source
The Abstract (Background; page not provided) says there have been limited efforts to conduct detection and attribution analyses in health. The Background on Detection and Attribution Methods (page not provided) contrasts this with the long history of such studies in climate science, supporting the claim that they rarely extend to estimating human health impacts. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Supportedcites [10] Mitchell, D. et al. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074006 (2016). source
The Abstract says previous studies attributed the heatwave to human influence on climate or examined its health effects separately, and describes this study as the first to quantify both together in an event-attribution framework. The Introduction likewise describes tracing anthropogenic influence through to human mortality. This supports the claim that attribution studies rarely take the additional health-impact step. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. A. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. Int. J. Climatol. 39, 4751–4768 (2019). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there was less heat-related mortality in all countries under the counterfactual scenario, with an average estimate of 0.98% (95% CI, 0.26–1.80) across all locations.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“increased mortality is evident on every continent”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“Impacts were evident in all of our study countries, which included locations on every inhabited continent”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the country-specific average temperature increase ranged from ~0.5 °C in Argentina to >1 °C in Iran, Kuwait, some countries in South and Central America and North of Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“indicating a relatively heavy population-level burden in southern and eastern Europe, where rates in several countries are >6 per 100,000 population over the 1991–2018 period compared to the study average of 2.2 per 100,000.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The largest climate change-induced contributions (>50%) were in southern and western Asia (Iran and Kuwait), southeast Asia (Philippines and Thailand) and several countries in Central and South America”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“The overall estimate is 37.0% but this percentage varied widely across subregions and countries.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations.”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
“in many locations, the attributable mortality is already on the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths each year”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all locations, heat-related mortality in the factual scenario amounted to an average of 1.56% (95% CI, 0.62–2.41) of all warm-season deaths”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we were not able to include locations in all world regions—for example, large parts of Africa and South Asia—due to a lack of the empirical data needed to estimate the exposure-response functions.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
- It may state two separate claims as one. 12
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Location-specific temperature series were extracted from the gridded products on the basis of the corresponding centroid and bias-corrected following a method described elsewhere19.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [19] Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J. & Piontek, F. A trend-preserving bias correction—the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 219–236 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3 describes a method for bias-correcting simulated temperature series against observations. The Observations section identifies the reference as WATCH Forcing Data, a gridded observational dataset, not local weather-station data. The citing sentence itself attributes the correction method—not the use of station data—to this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“DAMIP is part of the CMIP6 and was specifically designed to allow for the assessment of the individual contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate17,18.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the factual and counterfactual climate datasets
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [17] Gillett, N. P. et al. The detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016). source
The Abstract states that DAMIP aims to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to observed global and regional climate changes. It also describes future single-forcing experiments intended to improve projections of future climate change. The Introduction likewise identifies DAMIP experiments as part of CMIP6. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Partly supportedcites [18] Gillett, N. P. et al. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since preindustrial. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 207–212 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘Attribution of global mean temperature changes’ section identifies DAMIP as part of CMIP6 and describes experiments separating historical natural, aerosol, and greenhouse-gas forcings. It supports assessing individual contributions to past global temperature change, but does not establish the claimed design purpose for future changes or regional climate. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“These choices that specify the cross-basis and model terms used to control for long-term and seasonal trends were based on related studies from the MCC Collaborative Research Network20,24.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Methods section identifies this as an analysis of the Multi-Country Multi-City data set and specifies both the cross-basis and the terms controlling seasonal and long-term trends. It therefore supports the citation as an example of a related study using those model choices. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Supportedcites [24] Gasparrini, A. et al. Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ. Health Perspect. 123, 1200–1207 (2015). source
The Methods section (page not specified in our copy) describes the study’s cross-basis specification and its spline terms for controlling seasonal and long-term trends. This makes the cited multicountry study an example of the related modeling choices the citing sentence refers to. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Prior research has demonstrated that heat risks tend to occur quickly after exposure and then disappear within 10 d (ref. 20).”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Results report that excess mortality risk after a hot day generally persists for 4–10 days in early summer, while significant risks in late summer are limited to lags of 0–2 or 0–4 days. This supports the claim that the risk appears soon after exposure and generally disappears within 10 days. (LLM, conf=0.90)
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“An immediate and direct impact of climate change is through human exposure to high outdoor temperatures, which is associated with morbidity and an increased risk of premature death (mortality)2–4.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [2] Gasparrini, A. et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386, 369–375 (2015). source
The Introduction reports an association between ambient temperature and both morbidity and mortality, and specifically says high temperatures are associated with increased health risks. The Discussion reports that warmer-than-optimum days contributed to deaths and describes temperature as advancing deaths. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). source
- Supportedcites [4] Ye, X. et al. Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ. Health Perspect. 120, 19–28 (2012). source
The Conclusions and Recommendations report that ambient heat is associated with morbidity. The Major Findings also describe studies showing an immediate increase in mortality after heat exposure. Our copy does not provide page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.90)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The country-specific estimates ranged from <1% (for example, the USA, Colombia, Sweden, Norway, UK, Japan and South Korea) to >5% in countries of Southern Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Warming is also reflected in the overall temperature difference between scenarios over the study period (1991–2018), with ~0.8 °C increase on average and strong differences across regions of the world”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across the 732 locations, the annual average temperature in the warm season in the factual scenario increased from nearly 21.5 °C at the end of the twentieth century to almost 23 °C in the 2010s, whereas in the counterfactual scenario, annual temperatures remained relatively stable at around 21.5 °C”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall estimate that 0.58% (95% CI: 0.24–1.14) of all warm-season deaths are attributable to climate change translates to an average of 9,702 (95% CI, 4,005–19,135) deaths across the 732 locations”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Heat-related mortality risks ranged from 0.97 to 2.47 but with only 28 of the 732 locations <1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Country-specific estimates (Fig. 4b) show a clear north-south pattern within regions; human-induced climate change attributable deaths are <1% of total deaths for countries in northern subregions of America, Europe and Asia, while larger contributions were observed in southern Europe, southern and western Asia and some countries in southeast Asia and South America.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Larger risks are observed in the European region, in particular the Western and Central area of the continent, while smaller estimates <1.5 were found in most locations in Asia and the Americas.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We obtained empirical confidence intervals corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the empirical distribution of the heat-related mortality impacts across coefficients and models.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
plainn = 1,000- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have demonstrated that health burdens from anthropogenic climate change are occurring, are geographically widespread and are non-trivial”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the wide and heterogeneous geographical scope of our dataset allowed us to assess spatial patterns in the estimated impacts and to identify areas that have already been disproportionately affected.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“several high-population regions have warmed by >2 °C, while others have experienced relatively little change1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The world is now an average of ~1°C above the pre-industrial era”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper relies on this without support.
No large-scale, systematic studies had already quantified the heat-related health impacts of climate change.
“there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
“a counterfactual scenario where climate simulations are driven by natural forcings only, thus approximating the climate that would have occurred in a world without human-induced or anthropogenic climate change16.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
“we used the estimated exposure-response functions to compute the heat-related mortality burden between 1991 and 2018 for each location under two scenarios”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
“The difference between the factual and counterfactual scenarios is interpretable as the proportion of total deaths during the warm season attributable to human-induced climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The study is the largest attribution study so far on climate change health impacts.
“To our knowledge, this is the largest attribution study to date on the health impacts of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The MCC database is the largest consortium of weather and health data assembled so far.
“The observed temperature and mortality data were collected through the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, the largest weather and health data consortium to date (https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk).”
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Analysis of urban thermal structures in different scenarios of hot weather: The Bologna case study
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Assessing climate impacts on education: a comparison of four temperature indices in Spain
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Persistent and intensifying heat extremes in global deeper soils
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The impact of climate change on reserves in life insurance
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Future temperature-related mortality in various climate change and adaptation scenarios in Finland
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Machine learning helps to strongly reduce future warming uncertainty
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Responding to Heat: Why We Are Not Powerless
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Cities, Infrastructure, Energy, and the Future of the Basin
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Assessing the trends and influence of climate extremes on electricity consumption in Alberta
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Trade’s Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution
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“39 Most evidence on the effects of extreme heat originates from the Global North, 2 with limited data from low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where preterm birth and stillbirth rates are among the highest globally.”
Pandemic-associated disruption of seasonal mortality patterns in Lusaka, Zambia
Phiri, A. E., Siakabeya, M., & Mtonga, V. (2026) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021622
“30 Conversely, cold-season amplification reflects intersecting vulnerabilities: Household crowding during lockdowns accelerated respiratory spread, poverty constrained heating access during temperature minima (14.2°C) and pandemic stress exacerbated hypertension/chronic obstructive pulmonary…”
InfluentialModification of temperature-morbidity associations by social determinants of healthPreprint
Scovronick, N., Zhang, D., McCann, Z. H., D'Souza, R. D., Lane, M., Zhang, R., Philipsborn, R. P., Ebelt, S., & Chang, H. H. (2026) · medRxiv · doi:10.64898/2026.03.20.26348922
Self-citationAdapting to Climate-Related Health Risks: The Economic Case for Climate Services for Health
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Early-career researchers reflect on influential papers
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Temperature extremes and drought risks
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Embracing an environmental health approach to strengthen frontline healthcare in Southeast Asia
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Heat and PM10 Exposure Mitigation Routing Tradeoffs: A Multiobjective Budget Constrained ApproachPreprint
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“The concentration of deaths during periods in which temperatures exceeded 110°F is consistent with prior research demonstrating threshold effects, in which mortality increases sharply once environmental conditions exceed physiologic and adaptive capacity [2,3].”
Spatial Analysis of Extreme Heat in Puerto Rico
Ayala, J. J. H., Méndez‐Tejeda, R., Carrión, K. V. V., et al. (2026) · Meteorology · doi:10.3390/meteorology5020010
Advances in human thermophysiological modelling for hot environments: A review
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Heat and air pollution shape divergent mortality patterns across rural and urban United States
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“International meta-analyses have shown that exposure to heatwaves increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality by approximately 14.9% (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
InfluentialBiswas, P., & Mondal, S. H. (2026) · Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1007/s41685-026-00428-7
“…particularly in urban areas with high levels of heat-retaining surfaces and limited green spaces (Gasparrini et al. 2017; Chen et al. 2018; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is a theoretical framework that suggests an inverted U-shaped relationship between…”
Cities, Infrastructure, Energy, and the Future of the Congo Basin
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“Many studies, particularly within the MCC Collaborative Network, streamline this process by employing a single natural cubic spline for both long-term and seasonal components (e.g., [102, 103]) or by including interaction terms between season and year (e.g., [91, 101]).”
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“The Lancet countdown reports an 85% rise in heat-attributable CV mortality over the last 20 years (5–7).”
Kaul, N., Lenzewski, N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Jensen, K., & Poschlod, B. (2026) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2026.129489 · Cited by 1
Sun, Y., Chen, X., Zhao, Q., Xie, J., & Liu, Z. (2026) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su18104772
“Against this backdrop, urban heat mitigation has become an urgent priority for large metropolitan areas [9,10].”
The overlooked burden of moderate temperatures on fire services
Zhu, Y., & Zhang, H. (2026) · Safety Science · doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107268
Yadav, A., Rana, M. J., Dwivedi, A., & Rai, S. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9433625/v1
Climate-Induced Mortality in India: Regional Disparities and Emerging Hotspots
Das, U. (2026) · Advances in global change research · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-25479-5_5
Miao, D., Li, J., Bai, X. M., et al. (2026) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2026.1819428
Climate response to nature future scenarios in a regional earth system model
Sieber, P., Karger, D. N., Zimmerman, N. E., Si‐Moussi, S., Thuiller, W., Midolo, G., Chytrý, M., Axmanová, I., Schwaab, J., Davin, É. L., et al. (2026) · Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften digital collection (Zurich University of Applied Sciences) · doi:10.21256/zhaw-36089
Climate change, inequality, and childhood stunting in African countries
Pradhan, N., Ludwig-Borycz, E. F., & Agrawal, A. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2518179123
Multidecadal analysis of the dynamics of bioclimatic stress caused by thermal extremes in Romania
Caciora, T., Ciurba, A.-P., Haidu, I., et al. (2026) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae7252
Choi, H., Park, J. S., & Lim, C.-H. (2026) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102981
Peng, B., & (143236), F. L. (2026) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2026.107848
Jia, L., Zhao, B., Mohamed, M. F., Yusoff, W. F. M., Hong, Y., & Guo, Y. (2026) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2026.114869
Self-citationHuber, D., Brunner, M., Nutz, M., Richter, L., Kovács, B., Treff, G., & Roth, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2026.1819421
Approaches, challenges and applications of climate change impact attribution
Undorf, S., Dimitrova, A., Harrington, L. J., Hegerl, G. C., Jézéquel, A., Kimutai, J., Lo, Y. T. E., Mengel, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Pietroiusti, R., et al. (2026) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00798-8 · Cited by 1
“These calculations can be stratified according to groups of events that occur at a specific warming level 119 , within a specific time window 53,120 , or accumulated across lifetimes 121,122 .”
Self-citationWhen Protection Hurts: Labor Market Consequences of Mandatory Heat Allowances in ChinaPreprint
Agarwal, S. D., & Zhang, R. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6947117
Chen, Q., Zhang, Z., Zhu, J., Wang, D., Mei, Y., Dong, C., & Cheng, G. (2026) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-026-04238-w
“All datasets are uniformly remapped to a 1.5°×1.5° resolution using bilinear interpolation (Kharin V et al. 2013 ; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021 ).”
InfluentialHeatstroke admissions to Northeastern and Southern hospitals in the United States from 2016-2020
Brown, E. K. H., Wright, S. M., & Harris, C. M. (2026) · The Journal of Climate Change and Health · doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2026.100698
“Scientific consensus attributes the observed increase in extreme heat events primarily to human influence and projects further increases in the frequency and severity of heat extremes throughout the 21st century [6,7].”
Acute medicine 2050: A connected future of care
Varia, R. (2026) · Future Healthcare Journal · doi:10.1016/j.fhj.2026.100530
“6,7 Alongside structural and technological change, the clinical burden faced by acute medicine will continue to evolve.”
Extreme heat, socioenvironmental gradients and respiratory mortality in central BrazilPreprint
Pereira, S. R., de Oliveira, N. C., & Ferreira, M. L. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9899135/v1
Long-term trends in heatwave in the São Paulo megacity using the excess heat factor
Matuda, P. H. T., Rosário, N. E., Miraglia, S. G. E. K., et al. (2026) · Revista Brasileira de Ciências Ambientais · doi:10.5327/z2176-94782681
Machine learning early warning for urban heat risk with CMIP6 projections
Li, Z., Fong, C. S., Hamid, S. H. A., et al. (2026) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130304
Safeer, M., Zubair, M., Hussain, T., Khan, M. A., Madnee, M., & Allahverdi, T. H. (2026) · Agroforestry Systems · doi:10.1007/s10457-026-01570-z
“Between 1991 and 2018, approximately 37% of deaths related to heat-waves were linked to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021).”
A Prognostic Algorithm for Heat-Related Mortality in Older Adults: Development in Milan
Russo, D., Tùnesi, S., Greco, T., & Russo, A. G. (2026) · Environments · doi:10.3390/environments13070370
“To best reflect health status at the time of death, we considered records documented within the 2 years preceding inclusion [32,33] and, when multiple records were available, retained the one closest to the date of inclusion.”
Li, Y., Huang, T., Gajapathi, G., Lam, T. Y. T., Lee, H. F., Lau, L. H. S., Abisheganaden, J. A., Lim, J. T., Nguyen, H. L. T., Tan, K. B., et al. (2026) · Journal of the American Heart Association · doi:10.1161/jaha.125.045799
“35,36 First, we tested alternative lag structures for both temperature and cold-exposure models to confirm that estimated risks remained stable as the lag window extended.”
Entrenching Inequality: Climate Neutrality in Developed, Developing, and Underdeveloped Countries
Kakkar, K. B., & Khatri, Y. (2026) · Circular economy and sustainability · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-22687-7_12
He, C., He, C., Chen, R., 康乐妮, Liu, Y., Yu, X., Zhu, J., Wang, Y., & Kan, H. (2026) · The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific · doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2026.101922 · Cited by 1
Self-citationDevi, S., & Kotecha, R. (2026) · Discover Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12982-026-02501-0
“…the others, implementation-oriented work points out that the success in such situation demands transfer-learning methods, bias-conscious modelling, and lightweight deployment infra-structures that are in line with local data factuality and governance conventions [40, 52, 107, 110, 113, 121, 124].”
InfluentialAkalu, T. Y., Borg, M., Damtew, Y. T., Heatley, S. L., Beaty, M., Prescott, V., & Bi, P. (2026) · International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health · doi:10.1016/j.ijheh.2026.114858 · Cited by 2
Wang, B., Chen, M., Shi, L., Cao, Y., Yang, Y., Yang, J., Liu, S., & Peng, Y. (2026) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2026.1833501
Epelde, F. (2026) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph23070902
“Heat illness, dehydration, renal/cardiopulmonary strain,medication interactions, and sleep loss [19–22].”
Landscape characteristics modulate thermal extremes at the regional scale in Germany
Aryal, A., & Ryo, M. (2026) · Environmental and Sustainability Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.indic.2026.101415
Torales, J. C., Barrios, I., O’Higgins, M. G., Caycho-Rodríguez, T., Ventriglio, A., & Castaldelli-Maia, J. M. (2026) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology15141165 · Cited by 1
Evolution of Climate Extremes Over the Indian Subcontinent Using a Revised CEI
Thota, M., RAJEEVAN, M., Lenka, S., et al. (2026) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.70467
Li, C., Järvi, L., Su, X., et al. (2026) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2026.107716
Loh, M. W.-P., Kon, M. W. R., Krishna, A., et al. (2026) · BMC Medical Education · doi:10.1186/s12909-026-09775-7
Chen, S., Dong, Y., Liu, X. W., Zhou, X., Zeng, H., Ji, J., Luo, J., & Wu, S. (2026) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-026-28629-x
“…may differ across regions, increasing thermal stress associated with climate change and rapid urbanization has been widely reported in China and globally [51], whereas urban greenness has been recognized as an effective strategy for mitigating heat exposure and improving population health [52, 53].”
Escalating heat waves and human thermal stress over semi-arid Bundelkhand region, India
Singh, Y., Kumar, R., Sahu, S., Pipil, S., Singh, S. V., Kumar, P., Srivastav, M., & Singh, A. K. (2026) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103035
O’Donnell, E. C., Gosling, S. N., Kunda, J. J., & Priestnall, G. (2026) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2026.107729
Nam, Y.-S., Hamed, M., Spira-Cohen, A., Lane, K., Ito, K., & Olson, C. (2026) · Environmental Advances · doi:10.1016/j.envadv.2026.100738
Entitlement, aspiration, and the spatial politics of exemption
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Anthropogenic climate change and multi-crop yield losses in Australian food production systemPreprint
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Self-citationClimate Shelters: an urban network for climate resilience and neighbourhood services
Nocerino, G., Girardi, M. T., & Leone, M. F. (2026) · TECHNE - Journal of Technology for Architecture and Environment · doi:10.36253/techne-18627
Heat, employment and deprivation: compound climate burden in an island tourism economy
Quintana, S. C., Bonal, E., Herrera, A., & Armas, F. (2026) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-026-02692-x
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“Anthropogenic climate change has unequivocally intensified both the global hydrological cycle and thermal regime, making extreme heat events the deadliest meteorological hazard in many world regions (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021; Lee and Romero 2023; Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. H., Valencia, C. D. L. C., Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I. H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M. S., Guo, Y. L. L., Chen, B. Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T. N., Dung, D. V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., & Gasparrini, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- Emory University (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- University of Tsukuba (JP)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR)
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- University of Oulu (FI)
- Santé Publique France (FR)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
- Hakim Sabzevari University (IR)
- Technological University Dublin (IE)
- Brunel University of London (GB)
- Regione Lazio (IT)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Harvard University (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (PT)
- Universidade do Porto (PT)
- University of Turin (IT)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (CH)
- National Health Research Institutes (TW)
- Universidad de la República de Uruguay (UY)
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City (VN)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- European Space Agency (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Gasparrini, A.
- ORCID
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Scovronick, N.
- Sera, F.
- Royé, D.
- Schneider, R.
- Guo, Y.
- Honda, Y.
- Hondula, D. M.
- Abrutzky, R.
- Tong, S.
- Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
- Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento
- Correa, P. Matus
- Ortega, N. Valdes
- Kan, H.
- Osorio, S.
- Kyselý, J.
- Urban, A.
- Orru, H.
- Indermitte, E.
- Jaakkola, J. J. K.
- Ryti, N.
- Pascal, M.
- Schneider, A.
- Katsouyanni, K.
- Samoli, E.
- Mayvaneh, F.
- Entezari, A.
- Goodman, P.
- Zeka, A.
- Michelozzi, P.
- Hashizume, M.
- Alahmad, B.
- Diaz, M. Hurtado
- Valencia, C. De La Cruz
- Overcenco, A.
- Houthuijs, D.
- Rao, S.
- Carrasco-Escobar, G.
- Seposo, X.
- Silva, S.
- Madureira, J.
- Fratianni, S.
- Acquaotta, F.
- Kim, H.
- Lee, W.
- Forsberg, B.
- Ragettli, M. S.
- Chen, B. Y.
- Li, S.
- Armstrong, B.
- Zanobetti, A.
- Schwartz, J.
- Dang, T. N.
- Dung, D. V.
- Gillett, N.
- Haines, A.
- Mengel, M.
- Huber, V.
- Gasparrini, A.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2021-05-31
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 492-500
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC7611104
- OpenAlex
- W3171801815
- Semantic Scholar
- 54d26db7b47f4929e373af434772c36da4d5260a
- Cited by
- 1,347
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 228 · 2025: 273 · 2024: 266 · 2023: 369 · 2022: 158 · 2021: 50
- FWCI
- 83.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Brunel University Research Archive (BURA) (Brunel University London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- PuSH - Publication Server of Helmholtz Zentrum München (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Emory University
- Harvard University
- Arizona State University
- Universität Basel
- University of Ottawa
- University of Bern
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
- European Space Agency
- European Commission (820655, 310372, HORIZON2020)
- Public Health Agency
- Monash University
- Queensland University of Technology
- Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GA20-28560S)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A2)
- Seoul National University
- Anhui Medical University
- Fudan University
- Universitat de València
- Akademie Věd České Republiky
- Università degli Studi di Firenze
- University of Tokyo
- Umeå Universitet
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- Universidade de São Paulo
- Hakim Sabzevari University
- Oulun Yliopisto
- University of Tsukuba
- Universidade do Porto
- Nanjing Medical University
- Tartu Ülikool
- Technological University Dublin
- Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (PCIN-2017–046)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health
- Health Canada
- Medical Research Council (MR/M022625/1, MR/S019669/1, MR/R013349/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R009384/1)
- National Health and Medical Research Council (1163693, 1109193)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016)
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JPMJSC20E4)
- Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- Helmholtz Zentrum München
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES019776)
- Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (JPMJSC20E4)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- heat-related mortality, anthropogenic climate change, attributable mortality, anthropogenic warming, health impacts of climate change, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, global health burden
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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