The DOI matches its Crossref record; 29 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 10 of the 15 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Open accessAbstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. Current and future climate change is expected to impact human health, both indirectly and directly, through increasing temperatures. Climate change has already had an impact and is responsible for 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, with increases in mortality observed globally.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
15 Own result · 4 Own method · 3 Sources not found · 3 Own interpretation · 2 Supported · 2 Supported so far · 2 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“These studies are often conducted in the climate science disciplines and rarely take the additional step of estimating associated human health impacts9–11.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [9] Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Detecting and attributing health burdens to climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 085004 (2017). source
The Abstract (Background; page not provided) says there have been limited efforts to conduct detection and attribution analyses in health. The Background on Detection and Attribution Methods (page not provided) contrasts this with the long history of such studies in climate science, supporting the claim that they rarely extend to estimating human health impacts. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Supportedcites [10] Mitchell, D. et al. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074006 (2016). source
The Abstract says previous studies attributed the heatwave to human influence on climate or examined its health effects separately, and describes this study as the first to quantify both together in an event-attribution framework. The Introduction likewise describes tracing anthropogenic influence through to human mortality. This supports the claim that attribution studies rarely take the additional health-impact step. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. A. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. Int. J. Climatol. 39, 4751–4768 (2019). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there was less heat-related mortality in all countries under the counterfactual scenario, with an average estimate of 0.98% (95% CI, 0.26–1.80) across all locations.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“increased mortality is evident on every continent”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“Impacts were evident in all of our study countries, which included locations on every inhabited continent”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the country-specific average temperature increase ranged from ~0.5 °C in Argentina to >1 °C in Iran, Kuwait, some countries in South and Central America and North of Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“indicating a relatively heavy population-level burden in southern and eastern Europe, where rates in several countries are >6 per 100,000 population over the 1991–2018 period compared to the study average of 2.2 per 100,000.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The largest climate change-induced contributions (>50%) were in southern and western Asia (Iran and Kuwait), southeast Asia (Philippines and Thailand) and several countries in Central and South America”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“The overall estimate is 37.0% but this percentage varied widely across subregions and countries.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations.”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
“in many locations, the attributable mortality is already on the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths each year”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all locations, heat-related mortality in the factual scenario amounted to an average of 1.56% (95% CI, 0.62–2.41) of all warm-season deaths”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we were not able to include locations in all world regions—for example, large parts of Africa and South Asia—due to a lack of the empirical data needed to estimate the exposure-response functions.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
- It may state two separate claims as one. 12
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Location-specific temperature series were extracted from the gridded products on the basis of the corresponding centroid and bias-corrected following a method described elsewhere19.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [19] Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J. & Piontek, F. A trend-preserving bias correction—the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 219–236 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3 describes a method for bias-correcting simulated temperature series against observations. The Observations section identifies the reference as WATCH Forcing Data, a gridded observational dataset, not local weather-station data. The citing sentence itself attributes the correction method—not the use of station data—to this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“DAMIP is part of the CMIP6 and was specifically designed to allow for the assessment of the individual contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate17,18.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the factual and counterfactual climate datasets
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [17] Gillett, N. P. et al. The detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016). source
The Abstract states that DAMIP aims to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to observed global and regional climate changes. It also describes future single-forcing experiments intended to improve projections of future climate change. The Introduction likewise identifies DAMIP experiments as part of CMIP6. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Partly supportedcites [18] Gillett, N. P. et al. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since preindustrial. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 207–212 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘Attribution of global mean temperature changes’ section identifies DAMIP as part of CMIP6 and describes experiments separating historical natural, aerosol, and greenhouse-gas forcings. It supports assessing individual contributions to past global temperature change, but does not establish the claimed design purpose for future changes or regional climate. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“These choices that specify the cross-basis and model terms used to control for long-term and seasonal trends were based on related studies from the MCC Collaborative Research Network20,24.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Methods section identifies this as an analysis of the Multi-Country Multi-City data set and specifies both the cross-basis and the terms controlling seasonal and long-term trends. It therefore supports the citation as an example of a related study using those model choices. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Supportedcites [24] Gasparrini, A. et al. Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ. Health Perspect. 123, 1200–1207 (2015). source
The Methods section (page not specified in our copy) describes the study’s cross-basis specification and its spline terms for controlling seasonal and long-term trends. This makes the cited multicountry study an example of the related modeling choices the citing sentence refers to. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Prior research has demonstrated that heat risks tend to occur quickly after exposure and then disappear within 10 d (ref. 20).”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Results report that excess mortality risk after a hot day generally persists for 4–10 days in early summer, while significant risks in late summer are limited to lags of 0–2 or 0–4 days. This supports the claim that the risk appears soon after exposure and generally disappears within 10 days. (LLM, conf=0.90)
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“An immediate and direct impact of climate change is through human exposure to high outdoor temperatures, which is associated with morbidity and an increased risk of premature death (mortality)2–4.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [2] Gasparrini, A. et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386, 369–375 (2015). source
The Introduction reports an association between ambient temperature and both morbidity and mortality, and specifically says high temperatures are associated with increased health risks. The Discussion reports that warmer-than-optimum days contributed to deaths and describes temperature as advancing deaths. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). source
- Supportedcites [4] Ye, X. et al. Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ. Health Perspect. 120, 19–28 (2012). source
The Conclusions and Recommendations report that ambient heat is associated with morbidity. The Major Findings also describe studies showing an immediate increase in mortality after heat exposure. Our copy does not provide page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.90)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The country-specific estimates ranged from <1% (for example, the USA, Colombia, Sweden, Norway, UK, Japan and South Korea) to >5% in countries of Southern Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Warming is also reflected in the overall temperature difference between scenarios over the study period (1991–2018), with ~0.8 °C increase on average and strong differences across regions of the world”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across the 732 locations, the annual average temperature in the warm season in the factual scenario increased from nearly 21.5 °C at the end of the twentieth century to almost 23 °C in the 2010s, whereas in the counterfactual scenario, annual temperatures remained relatively stable at around 21.5 °C”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall estimate that 0.58% (95% CI: 0.24–1.14) of all warm-season deaths are attributable to climate change translates to an average of 9,702 (95% CI, 4,005–19,135) deaths across the 732 locations”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Heat-related mortality risks ranged from 0.97 to 2.47 but with only 28 of the 732 locations <1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Country-specific estimates (Fig. 4b) show a clear north-south pattern within regions; human-induced climate change attributable deaths are <1% of total deaths for countries in northern subregions of America, Europe and Asia, while larger contributions were observed in southern Europe, southern and western Asia and some countries in southeast Asia and South America.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Larger risks are observed in the European region, in particular the Western and Central area of the continent, while smaller estimates <1.5 were found in most locations in Asia and the Americas.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We obtained empirical confidence intervals corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the empirical distribution of the heat-related mortality impacts across coefficients and models.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
plainn = 1,000- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have demonstrated that health burdens from anthropogenic climate change are occurring, are geographically widespread and are non-trivial”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the wide and heterogeneous geographical scope of our dataset allowed us to assess spatial patterns in the estimated impacts and to identify areas that have already been disproportionately affected.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“several high-population regions have warmed by >2 °C, while others have experienced relatively little change1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The world is now an average of ~1°C above the pre-industrial era”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper relies on this without support.
No large-scale, systematic studies had already quantified the heat-related health impacts of climate change.
“there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
“a counterfactual scenario where climate simulations are driven by natural forcings only, thus approximating the climate that would have occurred in a world without human-induced or anthropogenic climate change16.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
“we used the estimated exposure-response functions to compute the heat-related mortality burden between 1991 and 2018 for each location under two scenarios”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
“The difference between the factual and counterfactual scenarios is interpretable as the proportion of total deaths during the warm season attributable to human-induced climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The study is the largest attribution study so far on climate change health impacts.
“To our knowledge, this is the largest attribution study to date on the health impacts of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The MCC database is the largest consortium of weather and health data assembled so far.
“The observed temperature and mortality data were collected through the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, the largest weather and health data consortium to date (https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk).”
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398
World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated
Kottek, M., Grieser, J., Beck, C., Rudolf, B., & Rubel, F. (2006) · Meteorologische Zeitschrift · doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130 · Cited by 11,456
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., & Meinshausen, M. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature18307 · Cited by 3,637
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study
Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Hashizume, M., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Tobias, A., Tong, S., Rocklöv, J., Forsberg, B., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0 · Cited by 2,965
Self-citationDistributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R : The Package dlnm
Gasparrini, A. (2011) · Journal of Statistical Software · doi:10.18637/jss.v043.i08 · Cited by 1,714
Self-citationEstimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
Hsiang, S., Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D. J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., et al. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aal4369 · Cited by 1,239
A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., & Piontek, F. (2013) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-4-219-2013 · Cited by 1,238
High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008
Basu, R. (2009) · Environmental Health · doi:10.1186/1476-069x-8-40 · Cited by 1,188
Reducing and meta-analysing estimates from distributed lag non-linear models
Gasparrini, A., & Armstrong, B. (2013) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/1471-2288-13-1 · Cited by 1,081
Self-citationProjections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Sera, F., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Huber, V., Tong, S., de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M., Nascimento Saldiva, P. H., Lavigne, E., Matus Correa, P., et al. (2017) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(17)30156-0 · Cited by 911
Self-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Cramer, W. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 979–1037 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 701–800 of 1,340
Ikegwu, A. C., Nweke, H. F., Alo, U., et al. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2884374/v1 · Cited by 3
Climate Penalty on Air Pollution Abated by Anthropogenic Emission Reductions in the United StatesPreprint
Liu, P., Yin, L., Bai, B., Zhang, B., Zhu, Q., Di, Q., Réquia, W. J., Schwartz, J. D., & Shi, L. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3245771/v1 · Cited by 3
Self-citationMorais, J. H. D. A., Cruz, D. M. D. O. E., Saraceni, V., Ferreira, C. D., Aguilar, G. M. O., & Cruz, O. G. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.01.17.25320740 · Cited by 3
Li, C., Su, X., Fan, C., & Han, H. (2025) · Cities · doi:10.1016/j.cities.2025.106262 · Cited by 3
A wintertime thermal analysis of New Zealand Homestar certified apartments for older people
Ade, R., Rehm, M., & Vishnupriya, V. (2023) · Building Research & Information · doi:10.1080/09613218.2023.2256434 · Cited by 2
“Seasonal mortality is highest in the elderly (Davie et al., 2007) with excess winter mortality a greater risk than heat-related excess death (Zhao et al., 2021; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
Efficient Direct Air Capture in Industrial Cooling Towers Mediated by Electrochemical CO2 Release
Zheng, A., Zou, Y., Du, L., Zhang, Q., Daasbjerg, K., & Hu, X. (2024) · Angewandte Chemie · doi:10.1002/ange.202412697 · Cited by 2
Raz, R., Negev, M., Hauzer, M., Miller, E., Paltiel, O., & Kissinger, M. (2025) · Israel Journal of Health Policy Research · doi:10.1186/s13584-025-00684-6 · Cited by 2
“Climate change especially exacerbates the health vulnerability of sensitive populations, including older adults, people suffering from chronic diseases, people with low socioeconomic status, immigrants, and people who work outdoors, further expanding existing health disparities [4, 5].”
Honjo, K., 原, 政., & Yamato, H. (2025) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/add9bb · Cited by 2
“There is growing concern about heat waves caused by climate change [1, 2].”
Ai, S., Zhang, D., Cao, J., et al. (2025) · International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health · doi:10.1016/j.ijheh.2025.114593 · Cited by 2
Piluso, F., Strano, E., & Ceraso, D. (2025) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2025.104357 · Cited by 2
Yang, C., Li, X., Zhang, W., et al. (2025) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1652961 · Cited by 2
Schneidewind, T., Lee, S., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., et al. (2025) · Environmental Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ee9.0000000000000418 · Cited by 2
Self-citationChaturvedi, A., Bhat, M. Y., & Sofi, A. A. (2025) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127312 · Cited by 2
Epidemiological characteristics of heat-related illness: a nationwide study in Taiwan
Kuo, W.-Y., Huang, C., Chen, C., et al. (2025) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-025-24344-1 · Cited by 2
“Global temperatures have risen by approximately 1 °C compared to pre-indus-trial levels, with some regions experiencing increases of more than 2 °C [1].”
Oyama, T., Takakura, J., Ishizaki, N. N., et al. (2025) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2025.122949 · Cited by 2
Self-citationRöthlisberger, M., Sprenger, M. A., Beyerle, U., Fischer, E. M., & Wernli, H. (2026) · Weather and Climate Dynamics · doi:10.5194/wcd-7-1363-2026 · Cited by 3
“The escalating consequences of heat extremes are a growing societal concern (IPCC, 2021), for instance regarding public health (Guo et al., 2018; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), food security (Shukla et al., 2019), and ecosystem impacts (White et al., 2023).”
More active and severe heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere during La Niña developing summers
Lo, S., Hsu, H., Chang, Y., & Liang, H. (2025) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2025.100824 · Cited by 2
He, J., Madaniyazi, L., Chua, P. L., et al. (2025) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109921 · Cited by 2
Self-citationCui, L., & Shibata, S. (2025) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli13110234 · Cited by 2
Shapland, C. Y., Lo, Y. T. E., Leach, N. J., Lavigne, É., Tilling, K. M., & Mitchell, D. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adw8268 · Cited by 2
“We have found very different associations between temperature and mortality across the regions we considered; however, within-country variation in Canada was also previously identified ( 14 ).”
InfluentialSelf-citationHuman energy expenditure and thermoregulation during persistence hunting in the Namib
Hora, M., Dattatreya, R., Struška, M., Pontzer, H., & Sládek, V. (2025) · Journal of Human Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.jhevol.2025.103773 · Cited by 2
Salazar-Ceballos, A., & Miño, L. Á. (2025) · Biomédica · doi:10.7705/biomedica.7934 · Cited by 3
“Para Colombia, los investigadores reportaron 322.750 muertes asociadas con el calor entre 1998 y el 2013, y una temperatura media diaria de 23,9 (RIC: 23,1 a 24,6) para las cinco ciudades colombianas evaluadas (10).”
InfluentialLow-cost interventions for heat stress mitigation in urban informal settlements
Ang, Y. Q., Sparsh, Wang, T., & Chew, L. W. (2026) · Nature Cities · doi:10.1038/s44284-025-00370-3 · Cited by 2
Compound dry-and-hot extremes exacerbate income inequality and poverty in Europe
Schleypen, J. R., Saeed, F., Zimmer, A., et al. (2026) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103106 · Cited by 2
Amplified warming in tropical and subtropical cities under 2 °C climate change
Berk, S., Joshi, M. M., Goodess, C. M., & Nowack, P. J. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2502873123 · Cited by 3
Harris, M., Trok, J. T., Martel, K. S., Borbor-Cordova, M. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Munayco, C. V., Lescano, A. G., & Mordecai, E. A. (2026) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101619 · Cited by 12
LUCIDiT: A Lean Urban Comfort Intelligent Digital Twin for Quick Mean Radiant Temperature Assessment
Baia, M., Pierucci, G., & Balocco, C. (2026) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos17030305 · Cited by 2
Katagiri, A., Nishimura, H., Nawa, N., Fushimi, K., & Fujiwara, T. (2026) · Pediatric Research · doi:10.1038/s41390-026-04875-y · Cited by 2
Urban agrivoltaics enhance crop resilience and food-energy synergies in a changing climate
Merheb, C., Caplan, J. S., Phuyal, P., Macknick, J., Davatzes, N. C., & Ravi, S. (2026) · npj Urban Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s42949-026-00381-6 · Cited by 2
Lee, S., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2026) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyag044 · Cited by 3
Self-citationBuilding Capacity for Public Engagement on Solar Geoengineering
Jinnah, S., Dove, Z., Talati, S., Hayden, E. C., Siu, A., & Farooque, M. (2026) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009632836 · Cited by 2
Exogenous heatwaves amplify heat risks in China under anthropogenic climate change
Wang, G., Zhang, Q., Woolway, R. I., Singh, V., Luo, M., & Yang, Z. (2026) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-025-1862-x · Cited by 2
Global investigation of 2D and 3D urbanization-induced impacts on urban extreme heat
Zhao, Q., Gao, L., Meng, Q., & Lei, X. (2026) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2026.107414 · Cited by 2
Qian, L., Wu, L., Yu, X., Huang, G., Ma, X., Liu, X., Yang, Q., Liu, F., Qiu, R., Dong, J., et al. (2026) · GIScience & Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/15481603.2026.2667034 · Cited by 2
Self-citationOceanic heat sources exacerbate continental heatwaves
Wang, G., Zhang, Q., Slater, L. J., Woolway, R. I., Sun, F., Noy, I., Zhang, L., Singh, V. P., Xu, C.-Y., Li, J., et al. (2026) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101716 · Cited by 2
La salud en la comunicación de la adaptación al cambio climático
Cano, D. R., & Valenzuela, N. C. S.-G. (2022) · Estudios sobre el Mensaje Periodístico · doi:10.5209/esmp.80683 · Cited by 2
Kang, C., Oh, J., Lee, W., & Kim, H. (2022) · Journal of Climate Change Research · doi:10.15531/ksccr.2022.13.6.729 · Cited by 2
Self-citationHow does climate change impact our patients?
Gordon, I. O., Mehta, N., Isaacson, J. H., & Khatri, S. B. (2023) · Cleveland Clinic Journal of Medicine · doi:10.3949/ccjm.90a.22007 · Cited by 2
Klimawandel ganz nah: Hitzewellen
Nidens, N., Huber, V., Matthies‐Wiesler, F., & Schneider, A. E. (2023) · Die Nephrologie · doi:10.1007/s11560-023-00659-1 · Cited by 2
Self-citationReducing microgrid availability to reduce costs for coastal Puerto Rican communities
Villa, D. L., & Quiroz, J. (2023) · Science and Technology for the Built Environment · doi:10.1080/23744731.2023.2253087 · Cited by 2
“Such adaptations will decrease human suffering and death due to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021).”
BackgroundBack, Y., & Kleidorfer, M. (2023) · Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft · doi:10.1007/s00506-023-00989-3 · Cited by 2
Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises
Harris, M., & Frigg, R. (2023) · Handbooks in philosophy · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-07002-0_146 · Cited by 2
Resilience Hubs: A Climate Change Resource for Vulnerable Populations in the United States
Strawderman, M., & Herrmann, L. (2023) · MDPI eBooks · doi:10.3390/books978-3-0365-5503-4-4 · Cited by 3
Impact of seasonality and land use changes on urban heat island using earth-observing satellites
Guha, S., Govil, H., & Mukherjee, S. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-99164-3.00014-8 · Cited by 2
How to promote CO2 reduction in urban households from a micro perspective?
Xu, Y., Wang, Q., Tian, S., et al. (2024) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2024.130683 · Cited by 2
Geletič, J., Belda, M., Bureš, M., Krč, P., Lehnert, M., Resler, J., & Řezníček, H. (2024) · Circular economy and sustainability · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-50725-0_22 · Cited by 2
Seroji, A. R. (2024) · Journal of King Saud University - Science · doi:10.1016/j.jksus.2024.103173 · Cited by 3
Mihajlović, M., Savić, A., Marković, S., et al. (2024) · Ecologica · doi:10.18485/ecologica.2024.31.113.11 · Cited by 2
Impact of Weather and Climate Change on Mass Gathering Events
Martel, J. W., & Sholl, J. M. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009105156.023 · Cited by 2
Linking cumulative carbon emissions to observable climate impacts
Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., & Matthews, H. D. (2024) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad3fda · Cited by 4
Impact of the changing climate on air pollution, heat stress and human health
Chowdhury, S., Marginean, I., Chaudhary, E., Upadhyay, A., & Aunan, K. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-16088-2.00009-0 · Cited by 2
A review of classified regional ventilation strategies based on urban morphology
Gao, Z. J., & He, B. (2024) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1363/1/012075 · Cited by 2
Žatková, S., & Paľuchová, P. (2024) · Bratislava Law Review · doi:10.46282/blr.2024.8.1.874 · Cited by 3
The Link Between Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Climate Science
Datta, M. G. (2024) · Advances in Asian human-environmental research · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-51696-2_11 · Cited by 2
The climate crisis – actions to prioritize for anaesthesiologists
Lawin-O’Brien, R. O. C., Schwartz, E. S., Montgomery, H., Nurok, M., & Coburn, M. (2024) · Current Opinion in Anaesthesiology · doi:10.1097/aco.0000000000001444 · Cited by 2
Coproski, C. A., Liang, B., Dietrich, J., & DeGroote, J. P. (2024) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app142210576 · Cited by 2
Property Rights, Fossil Fuel Imports, and Climate Change
Gibson, F. G. (2024) · Analyse & Kritik · doi:10.1515/auk-2024-2017 · Cited by 2
Zafeiratou, S., Stafoggia, M., Gasparrini, A., et al. (2024) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2024.125428 · Cited by 2
Self-citationTEMPERATURE VARIATION, HEALTH, AND PRIVATE MEDICAL COSTS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
Zhang, M., WANG, W., HU, R., Cheng, Z., Li, J., & ZHANG, X. (2025) · Climate Change Economics · doi:10.1142/s2010007825500010 · Cited by 2
Leaders of Academic Health Systems as Drivers of Climate Action and Sustainability
Mallon, W. T., Cox, N., & Washington, A. E. (2025) · NEJM Catalyst · doi:10.1056/cat.24.0261 · Cited by 2
No detectable decrease in extreme cold-related mortality in Canada from Arctic sea ice loss
Ball, E., Lo, Y. T. E., Watson, P. A. G., Lavigne, É., Screen, J. A., Ye, K., & Mitchell, D. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adc1e6 · Cited by 2
Self-citationLi, Y., & James, P. (2025) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1021/ehp.6c00547 · Cited by 3
Wan, K., Gampe, D., & Hajat, S. (2025) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(25)00050-6 · Cited by 2
Sustainable development and gender well-being
Grown, C. A., Floro, M. S., & Onyechi, O. (2025) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/add363 · Cited by 3
The impacts of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on humidity-based extreme heat
Cornish, A. E., Kooperman, G. J., Grundstein, A., Skinner, C. B., & Swann, A. L. S. (2025) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01018-8 · Cited by 2
“A substantial portion of these heat-related deaths can be attributed to the worsening of these events due to climate change 11 .”
Advancing agriculture in Africa through nanotechnology: A systematic review
Gelaye, Y. (2025) · Journal of Nanoparticle Research · doi:10.1007/s11051-025-06334-x · Cited by 2
“For example, the impact of climate change is described as the greatest burden in Africa [60].”
Phillips, C. A., Merner, L. D., & Otto, F. E. L. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009409155.004 · Cited by 2
Palmeiro-Silva, Y. K., Chandler, R. E., & Kelman, I. (2025) · The Lancet Regional Health - Americas · doi:10.1016/j.lana.2025.101151 · Cited by 2
“…were considered: date of the event, sex (i.e., female/male), age categories (5-year groups), region of residence, region of hospitalisation (as healthcare centre’s region), length of stay (days), cause of the event (coded using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) versions 9 and 10).”
What Is Endangered Now? Climate Science at the Crossroads
SALESKA, S. R., Wofsy, S. C., Battisti, D. S., et al. (2025) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2025av001808 · Cited by 2
“…impacting human health and welfare (USGCRP, 2023): heat‐related deaths are rising, both in the U.S. and around the world (Romanello et al., 2024; Vicedo‐Cabrera, 2021), woodland and forest fires in mediterranean climates, including the Western U.S., along with associated smoke events, are now…”
The impact of implementing the women's reproductive rights agenda on climate change
Temmerman, M., Peeters, E., Delacroix, C., Arunda, M. O., Khalid, S., Hanson, C., & Ojong, S. A. (2025) · Frontiers in Global Women s Health · doi:10.3389/fgwh.2025.1594066 · Cited by 2
“However, critical areas remain understudied, including its impact on contraceptive access, abortion services, and reproductive cancers (10, 12, 13).”
Barriers to limiting fossil fuel supply in UNFCCC negotiations: insights from Bangladesh
Saha, C. K. (2025) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2025.2521119 · Cited by 2
“…(DPs), however, have largely produced ‘disappointing’ outcomes (LeBillon & Kristoffersen, 2020) given that emissions and, therefore, prolonged elevated temperatures, heat-related mortality, and natural disaster-induced losses, continue to rise (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021; Yaseen et al., 2023).”
Riach, N., Glaser, R., & Matzarakis, A. (2025) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109695 · Cited by 2
Ramon, D., Heaviside, C., Brousse, O., Simpson, C. H., Amuron, I., Jjemba, E. W., de Walle, J. V., Thiery, W., & van Lipzig, N. P. M. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae05b1 · Cited by 2
Water Interactions – A Systemic View
Olsson, G. (2022) · IWA Publishing eBooks · doi:10.2166/9781789062908 · Cited by 7
Climate Change Challenges and Science-Based Optimism
González, P. (2023) · Parks Stewardship Forum · doi:10.5070/p539159906 · Cited by 2
Sirvent, E. L., & Palom, A. R. (2023) · Investigaciones Geográficas · doi:10.14198/ingeo.23750 · Cited by 2
Not the Last Word: Climate Change Comes to Orthopaedics
Bernstein, J. M. (2023) · Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research · doi:10.1097/corr.0000000000002853 · Cited by 2
Balancing the health benefits and climate mortality costs of haemodialysis
Bhopal, A. S., Sharma, S., & Norheim, O. F. (2023) · Future Healthcare Journal · doi:10.7861/fhj.2022-0127 · Cited by 3
“Emerging research in this area might be able to generate more accurate estimates, 40 although the principle remains the same.”
BackgroundKoh, J., Steinfeld, D., & Martius, O. (2025) · Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.2024.0763 · Cited by 8
Increasing population exposure to future heatwaves influenced by land-atmosphere interactionsPreprint
Zhou, J., Teuling, A. J., Seneviratne, S. I., & Hirsch, A. L. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1990379/v1 · Cited by 3
de Schrijver, E., Sivaraj, S., Raible, C. C., Franco, O. H., Chen, K., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2661258/v1 · Cited by 2
Self-citationZhu, Z., Zhang, T., Benmarhnia, T., Chen, X., Wang, H., Wulayin, M., Knibbs, L. D., Yang, S., Xu, L., Huang, C., et al. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2731265/v1 · Cited by 2
Projecting Future Heat Stress Disparities to 2100 in the Contiguous United StatesPreprint
Song, K., Hsu, A., Peng, W., Yu, Y., & Kittner, N. (2023) · doi:10.31223/x5j38f · Cited by 2
The Role of Climate Change in the Expansion of DenguePreprint
de Abreu, R. C., Fernandez, I. P., Mishra, S., Gutierrez, B., Inward, R. P. D., Mills, C. L., Ortiz, E. L., Bastos, L. S., Freitas, L. P., Carvalho, L. M., et al. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.10.06.25337235 · Cited by 5
Amini, S., Huerta, A., Franke, J., Brugnara, Y., Caluwaerts, S., Anet, J., Savić, S. M., Gubler, M., Steeneveld, G., Chapman, L., et al. (2026) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-026-06804-4 · Cited by 4
Climate reparations for threats to health
Klinsky, S., Chitre, S. D., Richardson, E. T., & Burkett, M. (2026) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017222 · Cited by 2
“13 Sustained heat exposure, such as that experienced by outdoor workers and/or those with insufficient shelter, can also cause chronic health impacts such as damage to kidney function.”
Choisy, M., McBride, A., Chambers, M., Chanh, H. Q., Quang, H. N., Chau, N. T. X., Thi, G. N., Bonell, A., Evans, M., Ming, D. K. Y., et al. (2022) · Wellcome Open Research · doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17263.3 · Cited by 1
Trends in synoptic heat events in four Minnesota urban areas through the 21st century
Birkel, J. F. H., Twine, T. E., Liess, S., Kalkstein, L. S., & Sheridan, S. C. (2022) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101307 · Cited by 1
Wang, W., Wang, Y., Chen, L., Zhou, B., & Liao, F. (2023) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011771 · Cited by 1
Global Perspectives on the Impact of Climate Change on Quality of Life
Shukla, K., Patil, Y. B., Estoque, R. C., & de Haro, P. A. L. (2024) · Practice, progress, and proficiency in sustainability · doi:10.4018/978-1-6684-9863-7.ch001 · Cited by 2
Environmental and climate risks
OECD, & Bank, T. W. (2023) · OECD eBooks · doi:10.1787/773fb7f3-en · Cited by 1
Environmental violence and enterprise: The outsized role of business for environmental peacebuilding
Marcantonio, R. A. (2024) · Business Horizons · doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2024.07.003 · Cited by 9
Garrido‐Pérez, J. M., Barriopedro, D., Trigo, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Zappa, G., Álvarez-Castro, M. C., & García‐Herrera, R. (2024) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107677 · Cited by 2
Climate Change and Human Health in the MENA Region: A Geoinformatics Perspective
Samany, N. N., Al-Hemoud, A. M., & Boloorani, A. D. (2024) · The handbook of environmental chemistry · doi:10.1007/698_2024_1169 · Cited by 1
Dunn, R. A., Tinsley, G. M., Palmer, T. B., Benjamin, C. L., & Sekiguchi, Y. (2024) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu16223792 · Cited by 2
Jiang, W., Chen, H., & Wang, H. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8689 · Cited by 1
“Global warming has intensified hot extremes (HEs) worldwide, resulting in severe meteorological disasters that profoundly affect human health, economies and ecosystems (Mora et al. 2017; IPCC 2021; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021; Kohon et al. 2024).”
Impact of the urban heat island on heat-related mortality in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Japan
He, J., Madaniyazi, L., Chua, P. L., Kim, Y., Milojevic, A., Oka, K., Honda, Y., & Hashizume, M. (2024) · Environmental Research Health · doi:10.1088/2752-5309/ad95b2 · Cited by 2
“The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was derived from the cumulative temperature–mortality relationship over a 21 d lag period [20].”
Self-citationArya, B., & Mishra, J. (2024) · Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment · doi:10.1080/10911359.2024.2434095 · Cited by 1
“The need for development of the rapidly increasing global population has resulted in severe violation of planetary boundaries and deterioration of the quality of the environment (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
Too much, yet not enough? Assessing climate tool users’ perceptions, needs and access constraints
Hoy, A., Swartling, Å. G., Ustrnul, Z., Wypych, A., Nevmerzhytska, A. V., & Leander, E. (2024) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-024-02338-w · Cited by 4
“…et al. 2021; Weil-nhammer et al. 2021) and lead to exacerbated heat waves and extenuated cold waves (Van Oldenborgh et al. 2019; Hoy et al. 2020; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021), intensified heavy precipitation events and floods (Blöschl et al. 2019; Myhre et al. 2019; Fowler et al. 2021), and…”
Sutaria, P. (2024) · Journal of Population Therapeutics and Clinical Pharmacology · doi:10.53555/x5413q73 · Cited by 1
“[7] Effect over last decade The effects of heatwaves in India over the last decade have been substantial, influencing various aspects of public health and environmental conditions.”
Metadata
- Authors
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. H., Valencia, C. D. L. C., Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I. H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M. S., Guo, Y. L. L., Chen, B. Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T. N., Dung, D. V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., & Gasparrini, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- Emory University (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- University of Tsukuba (JP)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR)
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- University of Oulu (FI)
- Santé Publique France (FR)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
- Hakim Sabzevari University (IR)
- Technological University Dublin (IE)
- Brunel University of London (GB)
- Regione Lazio (IT)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Harvard University (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (PT)
- Universidade do Porto (PT)
- University of Turin (IT)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (CH)
- National Health Research Institutes (TW)
- Universidad de la República de Uruguay (UY)
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City (VN)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- European Space Agency (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Gasparrini, A.
- ORCID
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Scovronick, N.
- Sera, F.
- Royé, D.
- Schneider, R.
- Guo, Y.
- Honda, Y.
- Hondula, D. M.
- Abrutzky, R.
- Tong, S.
- Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
- Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento
- Correa, P. Matus
- Ortega, N. Valdes
- Kan, H.
- Osorio, S.
- Kyselý, J.
- Urban, A.
- Orru, H.
- Indermitte, E.
- Jaakkola, J. J. K.
- Ryti, N.
- Pascal, M.
- Schneider, A.
- Katsouyanni, K.
- Samoli, E.
- Mayvaneh, F.
- Entezari, A.
- Goodman, P.
- Zeka, A.
- Michelozzi, P.
- Hashizume, M.
- Alahmad, B.
- Diaz, M. Hurtado
- Valencia, C. De La Cruz
- Overcenco, A.
- Houthuijs, D.
- Rao, S.
- Carrasco-Escobar, G.
- Seposo, X.
- Silva, S.
- Madureira, J.
- Fratianni, S.
- Acquaotta, F.
- Kim, H.
- Lee, W.
- Forsberg, B.
- Ragettli, M. S.
- Chen, B. Y.
- Li, S.
- Armstrong, B.
- Zanobetti, A.
- Schwartz, J.
- Dang, T. N.
- Dung, D. V.
- Gillett, N.
- Haines, A.
- Mengel, M.
- Huber, V.
- Gasparrini, A.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2021-05-31
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 492-500
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC7611104
- OpenAlex
- W3171801815
- Semantic Scholar
- 54d26db7b47f4929e373af434772c36da4d5260a
- Cited by
- 1,347
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 228 · 2025: 273 · 2024: 266 · 2023: 369 · 2022: 158 · 2021: 50
- FWCI
- 83.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Brunel University Research Archive (BURA) (Brunel University London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- PuSH - Publication Server of Helmholtz Zentrum München (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Emory University
- Harvard University
- Arizona State University
- Universität Basel
- University of Ottawa
- University of Bern
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
- European Space Agency
- European Commission (820655, 310372, HORIZON2020)
- Public Health Agency
- Monash University
- Queensland University of Technology
- Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GA20-28560S)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A2)
- Seoul National University
- Anhui Medical University
- Fudan University
- Universitat de València
- Akademie Věd České Republiky
- Università degli Studi di Firenze
- University of Tokyo
- Umeå Universitet
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- Universidade de São Paulo
- Hakim Sabzevari University
- Oulun Yliopisto
- University of Tsukuba
- Universidade do Porto
- Nanjing Medical University
- Tartu Ülikool
- Technological University Dublin
- Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (PCIN-2017–046)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health
- Health Canada
- Medical Research Council (MR/M022625/1, MR/S019669/1, MR/R013349/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R009384/1)
- National Health and Medical Research Council (1163693, 1109193)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016)
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JPMJSC20E4)
- Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- Helmholtz Zentrum München
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES019776)
- Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (JPMJSC20E4)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- heat-related mortality, anthropogenic climate change, attributable mortality, anthropogenic warming, health impacts of climate change, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, global health burden
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
