The DOI matches its Crossref record; 29 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 10 of the 15 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Open accessAbstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. Current and future climate change is expected to impact human health, both indirectly and directly, through increasing temperatures. Climate change has already had an impact and is responsible for 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, with increases in mortality observed globally.
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15 Own result · 4 Own method · 3 Sources not found · 3 Own interpretation · 2 Supported · 2 Supported so far · 2 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“These studies are often conducted in the climate science disciplines and rarely take the additional step of estimating associated human health impacts9–11.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [9] Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Detecting and attributing health burdens to climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 085004 (2017). source
The Abstract (Background; page not provided) says there have been limited efforts to conduct detection and attribution analyses in health. The Background on Detection and Attribution Methods (page not provided) contrasts this with the long history of such studies in climate science, supporting the claim that they rarely extend to estimating human health impacts. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Supportedcites [10] Mitchell, D. et al. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074006 (2016). source
The Abstract says previous studies attributed the heatwave to human influence on climate or examined its health effects separately, and describes this study as the first to quantify both together in an event-attribution framework. The Introduction likewise describes tracing anthropogenic influence through to human mortality. This supports the claim that attribution studies rarely take the additional health-impact step. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. A. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. Int. J. Climatol. 39, 4751–4768 (2019). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there was less heat-related mortality in all countries under the counterfactual scenario, with an average estimate of 0.98% (95% CI, 0.26–1.80) across all locations.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“increased mortality is evident on every continent”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“Impacts were evident in all of our study countries, which included locations on every inhabited continent”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the country-specific average temperature increase ranged from ~0.5 °C in Argentina to >1 °C in Iran, Kuwait, some countries in South and Central America and North of Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“indicating a relatively heavy population-level burden in southern and eastern Europe, where rates in several countries are >6 per 100,000 population over the 1991–2018 period compared to the study average of 2.2 per 100,000.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The largest climate change-induced contributions (>50%) were in southern and western Asia (Iran and Kuwait), southeast Asia (Philippines and Thailand) and several countries in Central and South America”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“The overall estimate is 37.0% but this percentage varied widely across subregions and countries.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations.”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
“in many locations, the attributable mortality is already on the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths each year”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all locations, heat-related mortality in the factual scenario amounted to an average of 1.56% (95% CI, 0.62–2.41) of all warm-season deaths”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we were not able to include locations in all world regions—for example, large parts of Africa and South Asia—due to a lack of the empirical data needed to estimate the exposure-response functions.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
- It may state two separate claims as one. 12
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Location-specific temperature series were extracted from the gridded products on the basis of the corresponding centroid and bias-corrected following a method described elsewhere19.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [19] Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J. & Piontek, F. A trend-preserving bias correction—the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 219–236 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3 describes a method for bias-correcting simulated temperature series against observations. The Observations section identifies the reference as WATCH Forcing Data, a gridded observational dataset, not local weather-station data. The citing sentence itself attributes the correction method—not the use of station data—to this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“DAMIP is part of the CMIP6 and was specifically designed to allow for the assessment of the individual contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate17,18.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the factual and counterfactual climate datasets
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [17] Gillett, N. P. et al. The detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016). source
The Abstract states that DAMIP aims to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to observed global and regional climate changes. It also describes future single-forcing experiments intended to improve projections of future climate change. The Introduction likewise identifies DAMIP experiments as part of CMIP6. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Partly supportedcites [18] Gillett, N. P. et al. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since preindustrial. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 207–212 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘Attribution of global mean temperature changes’ section identifies DAMIP as part of CMIP6 and describes experiments separating historical natural, aerosol, and greenhouse-gas forcings. It supports assessing individual contributions to past global temperature change, but does not establish the claimed design purpose for future changes or regional climate. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“These choices that specify the cross-basis and model terms used to control for long-term and seasonal trends were based on related studies from the MCC Collaborative Research Network20,24.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Methods section identifies this as an analysis of the Multi-Country Multi-City data set and specifies both the cross-basis and the terms controlling seasonal and long-term trends. It therefore supports the citation as an example of a related study using those model choices. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Supportedcites [24] Gasparrini, A. et al. Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ. Health Perspect. 123, 1200–1207 (2015). source
The Methods section (page not specified in our copy) describes the study’s cross-basis specification and its spline terms for controlling seasonal and long-term trends. This makes the cited multicountry study an example of the related modeling choices the citing sentence refers to. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Prior research has demonstrated that heat risks tend to occur quickly after exposure and then disappear within 10 d (ref. 20).”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Results report that excess mortality risk after a hot day generally persists for 4–10 days in early summer, while significant risks in late summer are limited to lags of 0–2 or 0–4 days. This supports the claim that the risk appears soon after exposure and generally disappears within 10 days. (LLM, conf=0.90)
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“An immediate and direct impact of climate change is through human exposure to high outdoor temperatures, which is associated with morbidity and an increased risk of premature death (mortality)2–4.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [2] Gasparrini, A. et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386, 369–375 (2015). source
The Introduction reports an association between ambient temperature and both morbidity and mortality, and specifically says high temperatures are associated with increased health risks. The Discussion reports that warmer-than-optimum days contributed to deaths and describes temperature as advancing deaths. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). source
- Supportedcites [4] Ye, X. et al. Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ. Health Perspect. 120, 19–28 (2012). source
The Conclusions and Recommendations report that ambient heat is associated with morbidity. The Major Findings also describe studies showing an immediate increase in mortality after heat exposure. Our copy does not provide page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.90)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The country-specific estimates ranged from <1% (for example, the USA, Colombia, Sweden, Norway, UK, Japan and South Korea) to >5% in countries of Southern Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Warming is also reflected in the overall temperature difference between scenarios over the study period (1991–2018), with ~0.8 °C increase on average and strong differences across regions of the world”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across the 732 locations, the annual average temperature in the warm season in the factual scenario increased from nearly 21.5 °C at the end of the twentieth century to almost 23 °C in the 2010s, whereas in the counterfactual scenario, annual temperatures remained relatively stable at around 21.5 °C”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall estimate that 0.58% (95% CI: 0.24–1.14) of all warm-season deaths are attributable to climate change translates to an average of 9,702 (95% CI, 4,005–19,135) deaths across the 732 locations”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Heat-related mortality risks ranged from 0.97 to 2.47 but with only 28 of the 732 locations <1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Country-specific estimates (Fig. 4b) show a clear north-south pattern within regions; human-induced climate change attributable deaths are <1% of total deaths for countries in northern subregions of America, Europe and Asia, while larger contributions were observed in southern Europe, southern and western Asia and some countries in southeast Asia and South America.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Larger risks are observed in the European region, in particular the Western and Central area of the continent, while smaller estimates <1.5 were found in most locations in Asia and the Americas.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We obtained empirical confidence intervals corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the empirical distribution of the heat-related mortality impacts across coefficients and models.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
plainn = 1,000- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have demonstrated that health burdens from anthropogenic climate change are occurring, are geographically widespread and are non-trivial”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the wide and heterogeneous geographical scope of our dataset allowed us to assess spatial patterns in the estimated impacts and to identify areas that have already been disproportionately affected.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“several high-population regions have warmed by >2 °C, while others have experienced relatively little change1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The world is now an average of ~1°C above the pre-industrial era”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper relies on this without support.
No large-scale, systematic studies had already quantified the heat-related health impacts of climate change.
“there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
“a counterfactual scenario where climate simulations are driven by natural forcings only, thus approximating the climate that would have occurred in a world without human-induced or anthropogenic climate change16.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
“we used the estimated exposure-response functions to compute the heat-related mortality burden between 1991 and 2018 for each location under two scenarios”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
“The difference between the factual and counterfactual scenarios is interpretable as the proportion of total deaths during the warm season attributable to human-induced climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The study is the largest attribution study so far on climate change health impacts.
“To our knowledge, this is the largest attribution study to date on the health impacts of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The MCC database is the largest consortium of weather and health data assembled so far.
“The observed temperature and mortality data were collected through the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, the largest weather and health data consortium to date (https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk).”
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“It is also responsible for increasing fatalities and accounted for one-third of all heat-related deaths worldwide between 1991 and 2018 (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021: 492–500).”
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“Additionally, analyzing the effects of already realized warming is necessary to assess current risks from heat stress (Brimicombe et al., 2022, 2023; Kong & Huber, 2022; Vicedo‐Cabrera et al., 2021).”
BackgroundChapter 28 : Southwest. Fifth National Climate Assessment
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Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden
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“Heatwaves and, in general, extreme heat, can have severe consequences for human health (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021), especially for the most vulnerable population (van Daalen et al. 2022; Choi et al. 2023), also impacting e.g. labour productivity (Casanueva et al. 2020): in order to plan adequate…”
A mental health focus to amplify climate resilience actions
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“…evidence now unequivocally demonstrates that climate change is directly affecting human health: 5 billion people - more than 60% oftheworld ’ spopulation-havealreadybeenimpactedwhenaccountingfor death, injury, homelessness and need for emergency assistance driven by environmental change 4,9 – 12 .”
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
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Heat illnesses in clinical practice
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“5(Medium Development with Medium Radiative Forcing), which is considered a continuation of the historical scenario 45 , for the period of 2015 – 2020 to complement the historical climate data.”
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Application of the socioecological model to mitigate risks of heat illness
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“Heat waves limit physical activity as well as constitute a threat to mental health, elevate energy consumption in buildings, and contribute to increased heat-related fatalities, presenting several pressing challenges (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021; Chen et al. 2022; Zhang et al. 2023).”
Causality of compound extreme heat-precipitation events in Northeastern China
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“Billions of people are at risk with the impact likely to increase given 37% of heat-related deaths are attributable to human-induced climate change [5,6].”
Population aging exacerbates heat stroke-related ambulance transportations in Japan
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Self-citationUnequal impacts of rising temperatures on global human sentiment
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Handling the health impacts of extreme climate events
Filho, W. L., Balasubramanian, M., Purcell, W. M., & Paz, S. (2022) · Environmental Sciences Europe · doi:10.1186/s12302-022-00621-3 · Cited by 10
Human influence increases the likelihood of extremely early cherry tree flowering in Kyoto
Christidis, N., Aono, Y., & Stott, P. A. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6bb4 · Cited by 10
“Extending the approach from meteorological events to their impacts, enables us to assess, for example, changes in heat-related mortality [47], energy consumption [48], or in the economic cost of catastrophic weather events like hurricanes [49].”
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“Warm temperature extremes negatively impact human health (e.g., Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021; Sera et al. 2020 ; Åström et al. 2013) and socioeconomic activities (e.g., live-stock (Godde et al. 2021), agriculture (FAO 2018; Dury et al. 2019).”
Heat index extremes increasing several times faster than the air temperature
Romps, D. M. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad3144 · Cited by 10
“…experience, but anthropogenic global warming is exacerbating heat stress for billions of people where they live today (Mastrucci et al 2019, Raymond et al 2020, Baldwin et al 2023), reducing labor capacity (Dunne et al 2013), and increasing heat-induced mortality (Vicedo-Cabrera et al 2021).”
BackgroundGiannaros, C., Agathangelidis, I., Galanaki, E., Cartalis, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Giannaros, T. M., & Matzarakis, A. (2024) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-024-02923-y · Cited by 10
“Given the increasing risk of deadly atmospheric conditions due to the anthropogenic climate change 5,6 , there is an imperative need for improved heat-health management and action planning 7 .”
BackgroundTemperature Extremes Impact Mortality and Morbidity Differently
Gould, C. F., Heft‐Neal, S., Heaney, A. K., Bendavid, E., Callahan, C. W., Kiang, M. V., Zivin, J. G., & Burke, M. (2024) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w32195 · Cited by 9
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“28 Between 2000 and 2020, global warming has been associated with an estimated temperature-related mortality increase in Europe.”
Scovronick, N., Shiwang, J., Ferranna, M., Wagner, F., Errickson, F., Tong, D., Yan, X., Dubash, N. K., Liu, Y., Krishna, B., et al. (2026) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(26)00006-9 · Cited by 10
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“…is arguably the greatest health threat (see WHO, 2021a and https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheet s /detai l/clima te-chang e- and-health) that defines the Anthropocene Epoch and it is already markedly affecting human health and health systems (Haines & Ebi, 2019; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
Self-citationSouverijns, N., Ridder, K. D., Takacs, S., Veldeman, N., Michielsen, M., Crols, T., Foamouhoue, A. K., Nshimirimana, G., Dijé, I. D., & Tidjani, H. (2023) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8268 · Cited by 9
“These factors, in turn, affect human well-being and mortality (Kovats & Hajat, 2008; Marselle et al., 2020; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), energy consumption and public infrastructure (Ndiaye et al., 2017; Santamouris et al., 2015), violent incidents (Chersich et al., 2019) and labour productivity,…”
BackgroundUnleashing virtuous cycles of sustainable development goals and well‐being
Nobre, F. S. (2024) · Business and Society Review · doi:10.1111/basr.12339 · Cited by 11
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Heat, humidity and health impacts: how causal diagrams can help tell the complex story
Sivaraj, S., Jakob Zscheischler, A., Buzan, J., Martius, O., Brönnimann, S., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad5a25 · Cited by 11
“Climate change is already playing a substantial role in exacerbating this burden, accounting for nearly 37% of all warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, across multiple countries [5].”
BackgroundSelf-citationBruckner, T. A., Trinh, N. T., Lelong, N., Madani, K. M., Slama, R., Given, J. E., & Khoshnood, B. (2024) · Birth Defects Research · doi:10.1002/bdr2.2397 · Cited by 9
“research on heat-related illness in low-and middle-income countries is sparse, studies in Europe find that mortality related to heatwaves is increased in all age groups (D'Ippoliti et al. 2010; Gasparrini et al. 2017; Kovats and Kristie 2006; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021; Zhao et al. 2021).”
Climate change and children's health: resilience challenges for Brazil
Bustamante, M. (2024) · Jornal de Pediatria · doi:10.1016/j.jped.2024.11.002 · Cited by 9
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Self-citationFlexible Thermoelectric Active Cooling Garment to Combat Extreme Heat
Feng, T., Wang, J., Sun, E., et al. (2024) · Advanced Materials Technologies · doi:10.1002/admt.202401690 · Cited by 9
Efficient Direct Air Capture in Industrial Cooling Towers Mediated by Electrochemical CO2 Release
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“Recent modelling studies suggest an increased threat of heat-related illnesses and mortality globally, especially for vulnerable populations (Voorhees et al. 2011; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021 ).”
Epidemiology of Ischemic Heart Disease Burden Attributable to High Temperature in Asia From GBD 2021
Bao, Q., Wang, Z., Wang, J., & Ruan, Y. (2025) · JACC Asia · doi:10.1016/j.jacasi.2024.12.012 · Cited by 9
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“…information can be found for the 12 studies collected from the sensitivity analysis in (Table S2 in Supporting Information S1) (Chen et al., 2024; Hundessa et al., 2024; Lo et al., 2023; Mistry et al., 2022; Rai et al., 2023; Vicedo‐Cabrera et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2024; Zhao et al., 2021).”
Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur
Callahan, C. W., Trok, J. T., Wilson, A. J., Gould, C. F., Heft‐Neal, S., Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Burke, M. (2025) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1 · Cited by 15
“13,61,62), although we run a single regression that accommodates variations across regions rather than pooling time-series regressions from separate regions.”
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Implications of climate change on acute kidney injury
Freidin, N. T., Hayes, E., & Struthers, S. A. (2023) · Current Opinion in Nephrology & Hypertension · doi:10.1097/mnh.0000000000000926 · Cited by 9
Lim, D., Byun, M., Lee, B., et al. (2021) · Energy Conversion and Management · doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114704 · Cited by 9
Fan, Y., Pei-Syuan, L., Im, E., & Lo, M. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5adf · Cited by 9
Carney, T. D., Hebalkar, R. Y., Edeleva, E. V., Çiçek, I. Ö., & Shcherbata, H. R. (2023) · Disease Models & Mechanisms · doi:10.1242/dmm.049862 · Cited by 9
“Moreover, since increasing worldwide environmental temperatures have dire health effects, particularly among urban dwellers and people with metabolic and cardiopulmonary disorders, (Burkart et al, 2021; Ebi et al, 2021; Shindell et al., 2020; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), it is important to understand the influence of…”
A New Combined Air Quality and Heat Index in Relation to Mortality in Monterrey, Mexico
Fever, S. K., Kahl, J. D. W., Kalkbrenner, A. E., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph19063299 · Cited by 8
“[23] and is strengthened by the growing prevalence of high heat exposure associated with the increasing pressures of anthropogenic climate change [24].”
BackgroundMarginean, I., Cuaresma, J. C., Hoffmann, R., Muttarak, R., Gao, J., & Daloz, A. S. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004431 · Cited by 8
Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality
Orlov, A., Hertog, S. J. D., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Manola, I., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C., Thiery, W., Pongratz, J., Humpenöder, F., et al. (2024) · Environmental Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ee9.0000000000000337 · Cited by 8
“The methodology is described in detail in previous studies 1,2,11,28,29 and elaborated further in supplementary information.”
MethodSelf-citationSpatiotemporal variation of intra-urban heat and heatwaves across Greater Sydney, Australia
Pfautsch, S., Wujeska‐Klause, A., & Walters, J. R. (2024) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100741 · Cited by 8
“Heat-related mortality will rise in the future unless steps are taken to protect people from thermal extremes (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), especially those that have high heat vulnerability including the elderly, sick, frail, and very young (Zanobetti et al., 2013; Lu et al., 2021).”
Where should sports events be held under global warming? A case study of the African Cup of Nations
Sawadogo, W., Bliefernicht, J., Faye, A., & Kunstmann, H. G. (2024) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2024.106091 · Cited by 9
Caste Inequality in Occupational Exposure to Heat Waves in India
Shah, A., Thapliyal, S., Sugathan, A., Mishra, V. K., & Malghan, D. V. (2025) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-11803010 · Cited by 14
Ke, H., Chen, M., Tsao, C., Hii, H., Kuo, C.-W., Ka, S., Wu, C.-C., & Shih, C. (2025) · European Journal of Pharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.ejphar.2025.177710 · Cited by 10
Musarurwa, C., Kaifa, J. M., Ziweya, M., Moyo, A., Lunga, W., & Kunguma, O. (2025) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph22081242 · Cited by 9
Changes in the thermal stress across Europe between 1940–2023
Mărmureanu, L., Antonescu, B., Ene, D., Andrei, S., & Turcu, R. (2025) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-025-03043-x · Cited by 10
“…heat and cold stress pose significant risks, epidemiological studies demonstrate that heat-related mortality currently exceeds cold-related mortality in most mid-latitude regions, with this disparity projected to widen under climate change (e.g., Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021 ; Masselot et al. 2025 ).”
Dheed: an ERA5 based global database of compound dry and hot extreme events from 1950 to 2023
Weynants, M., Ji, C., Linscheid, N., et al. (2025) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-17-6621-2025 · Cited by 8
Escalating heat stress in Middle East–North Africa under global warming
Ntoumos, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Zittis, G., Constantinidou, K., Vautard, R., & Lelieveld, J. (2026) · Critical Insights in Climate Change · doi:10.1080/29931495.2025.2610922 · Cited by 8
Transdisciplinary Team Science in Health Research, Where Are We?
Yang, L., Shewchuk, B., Shang, C., et al. (2022) · Journal of Integrated Design and Process Science · doi:10.3233/jid-220011 · Cited by 8
Asghari, M., Ghalhari, G. F., Ghanadzadeh, M., Moradzadeh, R., Tajik, R., Samadi, S., & Heidari, H. (2023) · Air Quality Atmosphere & Health · doi:10.1007/s11869-023-01335-y · Cited by 8
“High temperatures increase morbidity and mortality and cause people to migrate from a climatic zone (Gasparrini et al. 2017; Chen and Mueller 2018; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021).”
BackgroundPascal, M., Wagner, V., & Corso, M. (2023) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-023-02451-1 · Cited by 8
Self-citationWang, W., Zeng, J., Li, X., Liao, F., Zhang, T., Yin, F., Deng, Y., & Ma, Y. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119402 · Cited by 9
Shindell, D. T., Hunter, R., Faluvegi, G., & Parsons, L. A. (2024) · GeoHealth · doi:10.1029/2023gh000970 · Cited by 7
“More specifically, empirical evidence shows that premature heat-related deaths at the city scale generally follow the level of heat exposure above the 84th percentile of daily temperature averages for most mid-latitude cities (Honda et al., 2014; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
BackgroundZhou, L., Wei, Y., Ge, Y., et al. (2024) · International Journal of Stroke · doi:10.1177/17474930241238636 · Cited by 8
“17 Researchers have recognized that non-optimal temperature is one of the leading risk factors of mortality worldwide, and the health effects related to extreme low temperatures dominate in most regions.”
Weeding, B., Love, P. T., Beyer, K., Lucieer, A., & Remenyi, T. (2024) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-024-02622-8 · Cited by 7
Man, it's a hot one: Trends and extremes in Florida autumn heat stress
Ennis, K. E., & Milrad, S. M. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8415 · Cited by 11
“recent global study, Vicedo-Cabrera et al. (2021) found that 37% of heat-related deaths could be attributed to anthropogenic climate change.”
BackgroundJun, M., Park, Y., Lee, J., et al. (2024) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105441 · Cited by 8
Sudmant, A. H., Boyle, D. K., Higgins-Lavery, R., Gouldson, A., Boyle, A., Fulker, J., & Brogan, J. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences · doi:10.1007/s13412-024-00955-9 · Cited by 8
“These benefits include the value of impacts avoided from reduced agriculture productivity (Ortiz-Bobea et al. 2021), loss of biodiversity (Pires et al. 2018), heat stress (Santamouris 2020; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021), and desertification (Huang et al. 2020).”
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Selvey, L. A., Aglas-Leitner, P., Lansbury, N., Hundessa, S., Stone, D. A., Ebi, K. L., & Osborne, N. J. (2025) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd · Cited by 9
Biourbanism | cities as nature: A resilience model for Anthromes
McGregor, A., & COWDY, M. (2023) · Science Talks · doi:10.1016/j.sctalk.2023.100238 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. H., Valencia, C. D. L. C., Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I. H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M. S., Guo, Y. L. L., Chen, B. Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T. N., Dung, D. V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., & Gasparrini, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- Emory University (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- University of Tsukuba (JP)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR)
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- University of Oulu (FI)
- Santé Publique France (FR)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
- Hakim Sabzevari University (IR)
- Technological University Dublin (IE)
- Brunel University of London (GB)
- Regione Lazio (IT)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Harvard University (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (PT)
- Universidade do Porto (PT)
- University of Turin (IT)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (CH)
- National Health Research Institutes (TW)
- Universidad de la República de Uruguay (UY)
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City (VN)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- European Space Agency (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Gasparrini, A.
- ORCID
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Scovronick, N.
- Sera, F.
- Royé, D.
- Schneider, R.
- Guo, Y.
- Honda, Y.
- Hondula, D. M.
- Abrutzky, R.
- Tong, S.
- Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
- Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento
- Correa, P. Matus
- Ortega, N. Valdes
- Kan, H.
- Osorio, S.
- Kyselý, J.
- Urban, A.
- Orru, H.
- Indermitte, E.
- Jaakkola, J. J. K.
- Ryti, N.
- Pascal, M.
- Schneider, A.
- Katsouyanni, K.
- Samoli, E.
- Mayvaneh, F.
- Entezari, A.
- Goodman, P.
- Zeka, A.
- Michelozzi, P.
- Hashizume, M.
- Alahmad, B.
- Diaz, M. Hurtado
- Valencia, C. De La Cruz
- Overcenco, A.
- Houthuijs, D.
- Rao, S.
- Carrasco-Escobar, G.
- Seposo, X.
- Silva, S.
- Madureira, J.
- Fratianni, S.
- Acquaotta, F.
- Kim, H.
- Lee, W.
- Forsberg, B.
- Ragettli, M. S.
- Chen, B. Y.
- Li, S.
- Armstrong, B.
- Zanobetti, A.
- Schwartz, J.
- Dang, T. N.
- Dung, D. V.
- Gillett, N.
- Haines, A.
- Mengel, M.
- Huber, V.
- Gasparrini, A.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2021-05-31
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 492-500
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC7611104
- OpenAlex
- W3171801815
- Semantic Scholar
- 54d26db7b47f4929e373af434772c36da4d5260a
- Cited by
- 1,347
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 228 · 2025: 273 · 2024: 266 · 2023: 369 · 2022: 158 · 2021: 50
- FWCI
- 83.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Brunel University Research Archive (BURA) (Brunel University London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- PuSH - Publication Server of Helmholtz Zentrum München (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Emory University
- Harvard University
- Arizona State University
- Universität Basel
- University of Ottawa
- University of Bern
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
- European Space Agency
- European Commission (820655, 310372, HORIZON2020)
- Public Health Agency
- Monash University
- Queensland University of Technology
- Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GA20-28560S)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A2)
- Seoul National University
- Anhui Medical University
- Fudan University
- Universitat de València
- Akademie Věd České Republiky
- Università degli Studi di Firenze
- University of Tokyo
- Umeå Universitet
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- Universidade de São Paulo
- Hakim Sabzevari University
- Oulun Yliopisto
- University of Tsukuba
- Universidade do Porto
- Nanjing Medical University
- Tartu Ülikool
- Technological University Dublin
- Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (PCIN-2017–046)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health
- Health Canada
- Medical Research Council (MR/M022625/1, MR/S019669/1, MR/R013349/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R009384/1)
- National Health and Medical Research Council (1163693, 1109193)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016)
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JPMJSC20E4)
- Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- Helmholtz Zentrum München
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES019776)
- Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (JPMJSC20E4)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- heat-related mortality, anthropogenic climate change, attributable mortality, anthropogenic warming, health impacts of climate change, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, global health burden
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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