The DOI matches its Crossref record; 29 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 10 of the 15 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Open accessAbstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. Current and future climate change is expected to impact human health, both indirectly and directly, through increasing temperatures. Climate change has already had an impact and is responsible for 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, with increases in mortality observed globally.
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15 Own result · 4 Own method · 3 Sources not found · 3 Own interpretation · 2 Supported · 2 Supported so far · 2 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“These studies are often conducted in the climate science disciplines and rarely take the additional step of estimating associated human health impacts9–11.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [9] Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Detecting and attributing health burdens to climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 085004 (2017). source
The Abstract (Background; page not provided) says there have been limited efforts to conduct detection and attribution analyses in health. The Background on Detection and Attribution Methods (page not provided) contrasts this with the long history of such studies in climate science, supporting the claim that they rarely extend to estimating human health impacts. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Supportedcites [10] Mitchell, D. et al. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074006 (2016). source
The Abstract says previous studies attributed the heatwave to human influence on climate or examined its health effects separately, and describes this study as the first to quantify both together in an event-attribution framework. The Introduction likewise describes tracing anthropogenic influence through to human mortality. This supports the claim that attribution studies rarely take the additional health-impact step. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. A. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. Int. J. Climatol. 39, 4751–4768 (2019). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there was less heat-related mortality in all countries under the counterfactual scenario, with an average estimate of 0.98% (95% CI, 0.26–1.80) across all locations.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“increased mortality is evident on every continent”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“Impacts were evident in all of our study countries, which included locations on every inhabited continent”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the country-specific average temperature increase ranged from ~0.5 °C in Argentina to >1 °C in Iran, Kuwait, some countries in South and Central America and North of Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“indicating a relatively heavy population-level burden in southern and eastern Europe, where rates in several countries are >6 per 100,000 population over the 1991–2018 period compared to the study average of 2.2 per 100,000.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The largest climate change-induced contributions (>50%) were in southern and western Asia (Iran and Kuwait), southeast Asia (Philippines and Thailand) and several countries in Central and South America”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“The overall estimate is 37.0% but this percentage varied widely across subregions and countries.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations.”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
“in many locations, the attributable mortality is already on the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths each year”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all locations, heat-related mortality in the factual scenario amounted to an average of 1.56% (95% CI, 0.62–2.41) of all warm-season deaths”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we were not able to include locations in all world regions—for example, large parts of Africa and South Asia—due to a lack of the empirical data needed to estimate the exposure-response functions.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
- It may state two separate claims as one. 12
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Location-specific temperature series were extracted from the gridded products on the basis of the corresponding centroid and bias-corrected following a method described elsewhere19.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [19] Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J. & Piontek, F. A trend-preserving bias correction—the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 219–236 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3 describes a method for bias-correcting simulated temperature series against observations. The Observations section identifies the reference as WATCH Forcing Data, a gridded observational dataset, not local weather-station data. The citing sentence itself attributes the correction method—not the use of station data—to this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“DAMIP is part of the CMIP6 and was specifically designed to allow for the assessment of the individual contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate17,18.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the factual and counterfactual climate datasets
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [17] Gillett, N. P. et al. The detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016). source
The Abstract states that DAMIP aims to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to observed global and regional climate changes. It also describes future single-forcing experiments intended to improve projections of future climate change. The Introduction likewise identifies DAMIP experiments as part of CMIP6. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Partly supportedcites [18] Gillett, N. P. et al. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since preindustrial. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 207–212 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘Attribution of global mean temperature changes’ section identifies DAMIP as part of CMIP6 and describes experiments separating historical natural, aerosol, and greenhouse-gas forcings. It supports assessing individual contributions to past global temperature change, but does not establish the claimed design purpose for future changes or regional climate. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“These choices that specify the cross-basis and model terms used to control for long-term and seasonal trends were based on related studies from the MCC Collaborative Research Network20,24.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Methods section identifies this as an analysis of the Multi-Country Multi-City data set and specifies both the cross-basis and the terms controlling seasonal and long-term trends. It therefore supports the citation as an example of a related study using those model choices. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Supportedcites [24] Gasparrini, A. et al. Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ. Health Perspect. 123, 1200–1207 (2015). source
The Methods section (page not specified in our copy) describes the study’s cross-basis specification and its spline terms for controlling seasonal and long-term trends. This makes the cited multicountry study an example of the related modeling choices the citing sentence refers to. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Prior research has demonstrated that heat risks tend to occur quickly after exposure and then disappear within 10 d (ref. 20).”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
The Results report that excess mortality risk after a hot day generally persists for 4–10 days in early summer, while significant risks in late summer are limited to lags of 0–2 or 0–4 days. This supports the claim that the risk appears soon after exposure and generally disappears within 10 days. (LLM, conf=0.90)
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“An immediate and direct impact of climate change is through human exposure to high outdoor temperatures, which is associated with morbidity and an increased risk of premature death (mortality)2–4.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [2] Gasparrini, A. et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386, 369–375 (2015). source
The Introduction reports an association between ambient temperature and both morbidity and mortality, and specifically says high temperatures are associated with increased health risks. The Discussion reports that warmer-than-optimum days contributed to deaths and describes temperature as advancing deaths. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). source
- Supportedcites [4] Ye, X. et al. Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ. Health Perspect. 120, 19–28 (2012). source
The Conclusions and Recommendations report that ambient heat is associated with morbidity. The Major Findings also describe studies showing an immediate increase in mortality after heat exposure. Our copy does not provide page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.90)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The country-specific estimates ranged from <1% (for example, the USA, Colombia, Sweden, Norway, UK, Japan and South Korea) to >5% in countries of Southern Europe”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Warming is also reflected in the overall temperature difference between scenarios over the study period (1991–2018), with ~0.8 °C increase on average and strong differences across regions of the world”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across the 732 locations, the annual average temperature in the warm season in the factual scenario increased from nearly 21.5 °C at the end of the twentieth century to almost 23 °C in the 2010s, whereas in the counterfactual scenario, annual temperatures remained relatively stable at around 21.5 °C”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > The factual and counterfactual scenarios
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall estimate that 0.58% (95% CI: 0.24–1.14) of all warm-season deaths are attributable to climate change translates to an average of 9,702 (95% CI, 4,005–19,135) deaths across the 732 locations”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Heat-related mortality risks ranged from 0.97 to 2.47 but with only 28 of the 732 locations <1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Country-specific estimates (Fig. 4b) show a clear north-south pattern within regions; human-induced climate change attributable deaths are <1% of total deaths for countries in northern subregions of America, Europe and Asia, while larger contributions were observed in southern Europe, southern and western Asia and some countries in southeast Asia and South America.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Larger risks are observed in the European region, in particular the Western and Central area of the continent, while smaller estimates <1.5 were found in most locations in Asia and the Americas.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Location-specific temperature-mortality relationships
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We obtained empirical confidence intervals corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the empirical distribution of the heat-related mortality impacts across coefficients and models.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Methods > Description of the epidemiological analysis
plainn = 1,000- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have demonstrated that health burdens from anthropogenic climate change are occurring, are geographically widespread and are non-trivial”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the wide and heterogeneous geographical scope of our dataset allowed us to assess spatial patterns in the estimated impacts and to identify areas that have already been disproportionately affected.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“several high-population regions have warmed by >2 °C, while others have experienced relatively little change1.”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The world is now an average of ~1°C above the pre-industrial era”
§ The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper relies on this without support.
No large-scale, systematic studies had already quantified the heat-related health impacts of climate change.
“there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
“a counterfactual scenario where climate simulations are driven by natural forcings only, thus approximating the climate that would have occurred in a world without human-induced or anthropogenic climate change16.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
“we used the estimated exposure-response functions to compute the heat-related mortality burden between 1991 and 2018 for each location under two scenarios”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
“The difference between the factual and counterfactual scenarios is interpretable as the proportion of total deaths during the warm season attributable to human-induced climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The study is the largest attribution study so far on climate change health impacts.
“To our knowledge, this is the largest attribution study to date on the health impacts of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The MCC database is the largest consortium of weather and health data assembled so far.
“The observed temperature and mortality data were collected through the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, the largest weather and health data consortium to date (https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk).”
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Tropical deforestation is associated with considerable heat-related mortality
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Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales
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Reducing the inequitable health and financial burdens of climate change
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“Whether focusing on communities living in hot, tropical climates or those in cooler, midlatitude climates, there exists clear evidence of the manifold risks associated with extremely high temperatures, including for human health (Gasparrini et al. 2015; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021), animal welfare (Bryant et al.”
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The Impact of Urban Warming on the Mortality of Vulnerable Populations in Seoul
Ngarambe, J., Santamouris, M., & Yun, G. Y. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su142013452 · Cited by 20
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Regenerative economy: A pathway to a future-ready, sustainable Africa
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“In a study of 43 countries, Vicedo-Cabrera et al. (2021) attribute 37% of heat-related deaths to anthropogenic climate change during 1991 – 2018, with estimates for South Africa above 40% (other African countries were absent from the study, but other global South nations were above 60%).”
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“…in summer, which affect human well-being through thermal disasters such as heatstroke, drought, and power short-age, is increasing owing to global warming (Baniassadi et al. , 2018; Callahan & Mankin, 2022; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. , 2021; Zhang et al. , 2020; Zscheischler & Fischer, 2020).”
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Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change
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Impact of Heat on Respiratory Hospitalizations among Older Adults in 120 Large U.S. Urban Areas
O’Lenick, C. R., Cleland, S. E., Neas, L., Turner, M. W., Mcinroe, E. M., Hill, K. L., Ghio, A. J., Rebuli, M. E., Jaspers, I., & Rappold, A. G. (2024) · Annals of the American Thoracic Society · doi:10.1513/annalsats.202405-470oc · Cited by 23
“The analysis was restricted to June through September, the four warmest months in all LUCs during the study period (26).”
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“24 For example, a multi-country study found that 1·6% of deaths in the warm season were due to heat exposure, and 37·0% of these heat-related deaths were attributable to global warm ing caused by human activities.”
InfluentialClimate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making
Sillmann, J., Raupach, T., Findell, K. L., Donat, M. G., Alves, L. M., Alexander, L. V., Borchert, L., de Amorim, P. B., Buontempo, C., Fischer, E. M., et al. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765 · Cited by 21
Mediterranean marine heatwaves intensify in the presence of concurrent atmospheric heatwaves
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“Public health is another crucial sector that has been impacted by temperature rise 28,29 and AHW intensi fi - cation in the Mediterranean; an evaluation of the mortality attributable to 30 while northern Africa is one of the regions with a higher percentage excess in mortality due to temperature…”
Liu, J., Varghese, B. M., Hansen, A. L., Dear, K. B. G., Driscoll, T., Zhang, Y., Morgan, G. G., Prescott, V., Dolar, V., Gourley, M., et al. (2025) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf117 · Cited by 22
“13,19,20 There is, therefore, a necessity to fill relevant knowledge gaps to develop and prioritize region-specific climate strategies.”
Advancing urban shade mapping for planning: Integrating shade demand and greening potential
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Self-citationThe deadly effect of day-to-day temperature variation in the United States
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“If the observed polarization of seasonal temperature variation between high and low latitude areas continues, then poor countries in the South will not only continue to bear the burden of heatrelated mortality [20, 23], but they will also bear the burden from increased day-to-day temperature variation.”
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Vaňo, S., Duchková, H., Bašta, P., Jančovič, M., Geletič, J., Lorencová, E. K., & Suchá, L. (2025) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106202 · Cited by 20
2024: The year with too much summer in the eastern part of Europe
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2030 Agenda: discussion on Brazilian priorities facing air pollution and climate change challenges
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Contrasting Intraurban Signatures of Humid and Dry Heatwaves over Southern California
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“E XERTIONAL Heat Stroke (EHS) is a catastrophic injury for active workers, military personnel, and athletes [1], [2] and its incidence is accentuated by rising environmental temperatures [3], [4], [5].”
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Beyond heatwaves: A nuanced view of temperature-related mortality
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“The use of time-series analyses to examine daily ambient temperature-mortality relationships provides valuable insights into the direct health impacts of heat and variations in ambient temperatures, which are critical components of the broader climate change narrative [1,2].”
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Self-citationToward Experimental Heat–Health Early Warning in Africa
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Distributional outcomes of urban heat island reduction pathways under climate extremes
Eyni, A., Zaitchik, B. F., Hobbs, B. F., Hadjimichael, A., & Shi, R. J. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-93896-4 · Cited by 15
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“At current levels of human-caused global warming, there has already beenanobservableand rapidly escalating rise in heat-relatedexcessdeaths 35 – 37 ,includingmassmortalityevents 38 .”
Li, C., Min, R., Gu, X., Gulakhmadov, A., Luo, S., Liu, R., Slater, L. J., Xie, F., Kong, D., Liu, J., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.951392 · Cited by 17
“Identification of HW and HP Events The heat index (HI, in °C) and wet-bulb temperature (TW, in °C) are the two most widely used indicators to evaluate moist heat stress (Kang and Eltahir, 2018; Li et al., 2018; Luo and Lau, 2018; Kong et al., 2020; Zhang and Villarini, 2020; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
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Petzold, J., & Mose, L. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15064996 · Cited by 18
Damonti, L., Atkinson, A., Fontannaz, L., Burnham, J. P., Jent, P., Troillet, N., Widmer, A. F., & Marschall, J. (2023) · Journal of Hospital Infection · doi:10.1016/j.jhin.2023.03.014 · Cited by 15
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“Heatwave events pose a substantial risk to ecosystems (Stillman, 2019) and the economy (Jahn, 2015), but specifically to human health and wellbeing (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), especially in combination with compound perils: increased air pollution (Fischer et al., 2004; Shaposhnikov et al.,…”
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“Notably, extreme heat events (EHEs) are particularly lethal [25], with elevated temperatures contributing to heat-related illnesses and fatalities, accounting for over a third of such deaths in the last 30 years [26].”
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A new dynamic framework is required to assess adaptation limits
Juhola, S. K., Bouwer, L. M., Huggel, C., Mechler, R., Muccione, V., & Wallimann-Helmer, I. (2024) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102884 · Cited by 23
“…ecosystems around the globe (Roy et al., 2018), agricultural systems, (Harvey et al., 2014, Warner 2016), coastal systems (Karlsson and Hovelsrud 2015, Scott et al., 2020, Haasnoot et al., 2021, Mach and Siders 2021), and heat and human health (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021; Muccione et al., 2024).”
BackgroundClimate-induced mortality projections in Europe: Estimation and valuation of heat-related deaths
Ignjačević, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Estrada, F., Daanen, H. A. M., & Lupi, V. (2024) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104692 · Cited by 15
Wang, L., Liu, J., Yin, P., Gao, Y., Jiang, Y., Kan, H., Zhou, M., Ao, H., & Chen, R. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175208 · Cited by 15
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“Although heatwaves are part of naturally varying weather conditions, estimates indicate that approximately one-third of the heat-related deaths from 1991 to 2018 were attributable to human-induced climate change [12].”
BackgroundSelf-citationEvaluating the association between heatwave vulnerability index and related deaths in Australia
Amoatey, P., Trancoso, R., Xu, Z., Darssan, D., Osborne, N. J., & Phung, D. T. (2025) · Environmental Impact Assessment Review · doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107812 · Cited by 16
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Self-citationRegional and elevational patterns of extreme heat stress change in the US
Raymond, C., Waliser, D. E., Guan, B., Lee, H., Loikith, P. C., Massoud, E., Sengupta, A., Singh, D., & Wootten, A. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7343 · Cited by 14
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Designing and describing climate change impact attribution studies: a guide to common approachesPreprint
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High temperature, bargaining power and within-firm wage inequality: Evidence from China
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Karam, S., Amouzegar, A., Alshamsi, I., Ghamdi, S. M. G. A., Anwar, S., Ghnaimat, M. A., Saeed, B., Arruebo, S., Bello, A. K., Caskey, F. J., et al. (2024) · Kidney International Supplements · doi:10.1016/j.kisu.2024.01.009 · Cited by 14
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Self-citationHeat stress and socioeconomic inequality in Brazil
Coelho, J. C., & Réquia, W. J. (2025) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105200 · Cited by 14
Exploring the role of building codes in protecting occupants from overheating—A Canadian perspective
Siu, C. Y., Brown, S. G., Brideau, S. A., Ji, L., O’Brien, W., Ferguson, A. L., Greco, E., Touchie, M. F., Mclellan, C., Lepage, R., et al. (2025) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.115673 · Cited by 17
Iqbal, N., Ravan, M., Mitraka, Z., Birkmann, J., Grimmond, S., Hertwig, D., Chrysoulakis, N., Somarakis, G., Wendnagel‐Beck, A., & Panagiotakis, E. (2025) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025 · Cited by 17
“Heat-related mortality, a key climate change risk to human health ( Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021; Lüthi et al., 2023), is exacerbated in urban areas as global and regional temperature extremes are intensified by the urban heat island effect (Gallardo et al., 2022).”
Hundessa, S., Huang, W., Xu, R., Yang, Z., Zhao, Q., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B., Bell, M. L., Huber, V., Urban, A., et al. (2025) · The Innovation · doi:10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110 · Cited by 26
“These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming.”
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Evaluation of Heat Stress Levels Inside Greenhouses during Summer in Korea
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“Extremely high temperatures not only affect crop growth but are also dangerous for vulnerable individuals, such as people with chronic diseases, children, and the elderly [3,4].”
BackgroundSelf-citationHeat and health inequity: acting on determinants of health to promote heat justice
Hess, J. J. (2023) · Nature Reviews Nephrology · doi:10.1038/s41581-023-00679-z · Cited by 15
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The main and added effects of heat on mortality in 33 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2013
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“In this context, further research on the health impact of heat is needed, especially in developing countries, to provide evidence for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies (Campbell et al., 2018; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
BackgroundHuman tolerance to extreme heat: evidence from a desert climate population
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“INTRODUCTION Extreme environmental heat is the most consistent threat to humans from climate change [1, 2].”
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Unravelling key environmental factors influencing urban park visits: Thermal comfort and air quality
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Heat exposure and resilience planning in Atlanta, Georgia
Muse, N., Iwaniec, D. M., Wyczalkowski, C. K., & Mach, K. J. (2022) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ac78f9 · Cited by 14
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate informationPreprint
Pfleiderer, P., Frölicher, T. L., Kropf, C. M., Lamboll, R., Lejeune, Q., Lourenço, T. F., McCaughey, J. W., Quilcaille, Y., Rogelj, J., Sanderson, B. M., et al. (2023) · doi:10.31223/x5r088 · Cited by 14
Ho, K. H. M., Cheng, H. Y., McKenna, L., et al. (2023) · Nursing Open · doi:10.1002/nop2.2075 · Cited by 14
Gräf, M., Pucher, B., Hietz, P., Hofbauer, K., Allabashi, R., Pitha, U., Hood-Nowotny, R. C., & Stangl, R. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155745 · Cited by 14
Macrophysiology for decision‐making
Chown, S. L. (2022) · Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1111/jzo.13029 · Cited by 14
Yezli, S., Khan, A. H., Yassin, Y. M., Khan, A. A., Alotaibi, B. M., & Bouchama, A. (2023) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp9838 · Cited by 13
“In the current study, there was no signi fi cant association between temperature and mortality among Mecca residents, similar to what was reported for Kuwait city, 21,22 also characterized by a desert climate, and for hot cities in the United States.”
Nassikas, N. J., & Gold, D. R. (2023) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2023.09.013 · Cited by 13
Validation of the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey-2 for nurses: A cross-sectional study
Chung, S. J., Jang, S. J., & Lee, H. (2024) · Nurse Education in Practice · doi:10.1016/j.nepr.2024.103898 · Cited by 13
Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa
Adigun, P., Abah, E. O., & Ajileye, O. D. (2024) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41 · Cited by 13
Boni, Z., Bertel, D., & Adler, V. (2024) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.116838 · Cited by 13
Adaptive policing for a climate crisis
Blaustein, J., Shearing, C. D., & Miccelli, M. (2024) · Policing & Society · doi:10.1080/10439463.2024.2362713 · Cited by 13
Categorisation of urban open spaces for heat adaptation: A cluster based approach
Villaverde, A., González, I. Á., Rojí, E., et al. (2024) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.111861 · Cited by 13
Evidence of climate and economic drivers affecting migration in an unequal and warming world
Yang, X., Chen, D., Wahab, I., & Burman, A. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02811-2 · Cited by 16
“Over the past two decades, heat-related deaths among people aged 65 and older have increased by 53.7%, with particularly severe impacts in regions experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves 25 – 28 .”
InfluentialFeasibility of the Olympic marathon under climatic and socioeconomic change
Oyama, T., Takakura, J., Fujii, M., Nakajima, K., & Hijioka, Y. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-07934-6 · Cited by 13
“(3) In this study, the evaluation was based on the WBGT of representative points in each city, and therefore, microclimatic conditions in the city and adaptation measures, such as the construction of heat-shielding pavements, planting of trees, and misting, were not considered.”
BackgroundMethodTowards a more integrated research framework for heat-related health risks and adaptation
Muccione, V., Biesbroek, R. G., Harper, S. L., & Haasnoot, M. (2024) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00254-1 · Cited by 16
Sun, S., & Cheng, W. (2025) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2025.113424 · Cited by 17
Future warming exacerbates heatwave-ozone compound extremes in China
Cui, M.-S., Hong, C., Liu, W.-Y., He, K., & Zhang, Q. (2025) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01218-2 · Cited by 18
Homogenization of daily temperature and humidity series in the UK
Brugnara, Y., McCarthy, M., Willett, K. M., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.7941 · Cited by 12
“…are the two meteorological variables that most commonly affect human health, both directly (e.g., Willett and Sherwood, 2010; Raymond et al., 2020; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021) and through their influence on extreme precipitation events (e.g., Jones et al., 2010; Fischer and Knutti, 2016;…”
BackgroundRodrigues, M. (2023) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos14050775 · Cited by 12
Quantifying generational and geographical inequality of climate change
Hadré, E., Küpper, J., Tschirschwitz, J., Mengert, M., & Labuhn, I. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-35690-8 · Cited by 13
“Colors on the left side of the boxes indicate pathway-dependent data sets using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1, 2 ,3 and 5.”
Effects of the Bamboo Communities on Microclimate and Thermal Comfort in Subtropical Climates
Wu, R., Wu, N., Nan, X., Yan, H., Wang, K., Ma, T., She, J., & Bao, Z. (2023) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f14061231 · Cited by 12
“0% of the total mortality in the warm season [14].”
BackgroundWet-bulb temperatures reveal inequitable heat risk following climate change in Hong Kong
Boyle, M. J. W. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf67b · Cited by 12
The Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Populations
Joseph, D. D., & Doon, R. A. (2023) · MDPI eBooks · doi:10.3390/books978-3-0365-5503-4 · Cited by 14
Heat-related mortality in the extreme summer of 2022—an analysis based on daily data
Huber, V., Breitner, S., He, C., et al. (2024) · Deutsches Ärzteblatt international · doi:10.3238/arztebl.m2023.0254 · Cited by 12
Self-citationHou, T., Zhang, J., Wang, Y., Zhang, G., Li, S., Fan, W., Li, R., Sun, Q., & Liu, C. (2024) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms25052992 · Cited by 13
Self-citationThe impact of global warming on obesity
Huang, K., & Hong, Q. (2024) · Journal of Population Economics · doi:10.1007/s00148-024-01039-2 · Cited by 13
“…numerous studies have explored the impact of global warming on relevant health indicators, such as malnutrition (van der Merwe et al. 2022), mortality (Thompson et al. 2018), mental health (Hua et al. 2023), and various other health outcomes (e.g., Mora et al. 2017; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021).”
Health impacts of greenhouse gases emissions on humans and the environment
Kiehbadroudinezhad, M., Merabet, A., & Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, H. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-19231-9.00011-9 · Cited by 19
Advances and future directions of environmental risk research: A bibliometric review
Geng, J., Fang, W., Liu, M., Yang, J., Ma, Z., & Bi, J. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176246 · Cited by 14
From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
Schulz-Antipa, P. E., García-Witulski, C., Grand, M. C., & Rabassa, M. J. (2024) · Regional Science Policy & Practice · doi:10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100139 · Cited by 12
Metadata
- Authors
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. H., Valencia, C. D. L. C., Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I. H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M. S., Guo, Y. L. L., Chen, B. Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T. N., Dung, D. V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., & Gasparrini, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- Emory University (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- University of Tsukuba (JP)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR)
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- University of Oulu (FI)
- Santé Publique France (FR)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
- Hakim Sabzevari University (IR)
- Technological University Dublin (IE)
- Brunel University of London (GB)
- Regione Lazio (IT)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Harvard University (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (PT)
- Universidade do Porto (PT)
- University of Turin (IT)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (CH)
- National Health Research Institutes (TW)
- Universidad de la República de Uruguay (UY)
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City (VN)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- European Space Agency (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Gasparrini, A.
- ORCID
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Scovronick, N.
- Sera, F.
- Royé, D.
- Schneider, R.
- Guo, Y.
- Honda, Y.
- Hondula, D. M.
- Abrutzky, R.
- Tong, S.
- Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
- Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento
- Correa, P. Matus
- Ortega, N. Valdes
- Kan, H.
- Osorio, S.
- Kyselý, J.
- Urban, A.
- Orru, H.
- Indermitte, E.
- Jaakkola, J. J. K.
- Ryti, N.
- Pascal, M.
- Schneider, A.
- Katsouyanni, K.
- Samoli, E.
- Mayvaneh, F.
- Entezari, A.
- Goodman, P.
- Zeka, A.
- Michelozzi, P.
- Hashizume, M.
- Alahmad, B.
- Diaz, M. Hurtado
- Valencia, C. De La Cruz
- Overcenco, A.
- Houthuijs, D.
- Rao, S.
- Carrasco-Escobar, G.
- Seposo, X.
- Silva, S.
- Madureira, J.
- Fratianni, S.
- Acquaotta, F.
- Kim, H.
- Lee, W.
- Forsberg, B.
- Ragettli, M. S.
- Chen, B. Y.
- Li, S.
- Armstrong, B.
- Zanobetti, A.
- Schwartz, J.
- Dang, T. N.
- Dung, D. V.
- Gillett, N.
- Haines, A.
- Mengel, M.
- Huber, V.
- Gasparrini, A.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2021-05-31
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 492-500
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC7611104
- OpenAlex
- W3171801815
- Semantic Scholar
- 54d26db7b47f4929e373af434772c36da4d5260a
- Cited by
- 1,347
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 228 · 2025: 273 · 2024: 266 · 2023: 369 · 2022: 158 · 2021: 50
- FWCI
- 83.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Brunel University Research Archive (BURA) (Brunel University London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- PuSH - Publication Server of Helmholtz Zentrum München (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Emory University
- Harvard University
- Arizona State University
- Universität Basel
- University of Ottawa
- University of Bern
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
- European Space Agency
- European Commission (820655, 310372, HORIZON2020)
- Public Health Agency
- Monash University
- Queensland University of Technology
- Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GA20-28560S)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A2)
- Seoul National University
- Anhui Medical University
- Fudan University
- Universitat de València
- Akademie Věd České Republiky
- Università degli Studi di Firenze
- University of Tokyo
- Umeå Universitet
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- Universidade de São Paulo
- Hakim Sabzevari University
- Oulun Yliopisto
- University of Tsukuba
- Universidade do Porto
- Nanjing Medical University
- Tartu Ülikool
- Technological University Dublin
- Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (PCIN-2017–046)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health
- Health Canada
- Medical Research Council (MR/M022625/1, MR/S019669/1, MR/R013349/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R009384/1)
- National Health and Medical Research Council (1163693, 1109193)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016)
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JPMJSC20E4)
- Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- Helmholtz Zentrum München
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES019776)
- Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (JPMJSC20E4)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- heat-related mortality, anthropogenic climate change, attributable mortality, anthropogenic warming, health impacts of climate change, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, global health burden
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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