Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century
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Recent studies suggest potential changes in ENSO variability and an increased occurrence of El Niño-like warming under sustained warming.
“Recent studies on ENSO's long-term behaviour under sustained warming suggest potential changes in its variability and the increased occurrence of El Niño-like warming 67,68 .”
From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [68]
ENSO is an important driver of climate variability in the Amazon basin, influencing temperature, precipitation and ecosystem dynamics.
“The ENSO is an important driver of climate variability in the Amazon basin, influencing temperature, precipitation and ecosystem dynamics [66][67][68] .”
From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [68]
Cites
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241 · cited 2× · see citing works
“5/SSP585, anthropogenic radiative forcing continues to increase beyond the year 2100, reaching a level slightly above 12 W m −2 by 2250, after which it stabilizes and maintains a consistent value 14,28 .”
InfluentialIncreased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., & Yang, K. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · Cited by 263 · cited 6× · see citing works
“The first example is diverse projected changes in the twenty-first century: CMIP3 and CMIP5 models disagree on the sign of projected ENSO change 3–6 , but recent studies suggest an inter-model consensus on increased ENSO SST variability among CMIP6 models 7–9 .”
InfluentialHow Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
Fredriksen, H., Berner, J., Subramanian, A. C., & Capotondi, A. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl090640 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming
Callahan, C. W., Chen, C., Rugenstein, M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Yang, S., & Moyer, E. J. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01099-2 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
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Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models
Melnikova, I., Hajima, T., Shiogama, H., Hayashi, M., Ito, A., Nishina, K., Tachiiri, K., & Yokohata, T. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02606-5 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
- Authors
- Peng, Q., Xie, S.-P., & Deser, C.
- Affiliations
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Xie, Shang-Ping
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2024-07-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 815-822
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W4400208310
- Cited by
- 46
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 7.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (AGS 1637450, Cooperative Agreement 1852977)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- ENSO, ENSO variability, deep convection, thermocline feedback, thermal expansion, eastern equatorial Pacific, long-term climate projections, low-emission scenarios
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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