The DOI matches its Crossref record; 46 of the 46 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 4 of the 17 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States
Open accessAbstract
We assessed racial disparities in policing in the United States by compiling and analysing a dataset detailing nearly 100 million traffic stops conducted across the country. We found that black drivers were less likely to be stopped after sunset, when a 'veil of darkness' masks one's race, suggesting bias in stop decisions. Furthermore, by examining the rate at which stopped drivers were searched and the likelihood that searches turned up contraband, we found evidence that the bar for searching black and Hispanic drivers was lower than that for searching white drivers. Finally, we found that legalization of recreational marijuana reduced the number of searches of white, black and Hispanic drivers-but the bar for searching black and Hispanic drivers was still lower than that for white drivers post-legalization. Our results indicate that police stops and search decisions suffer from persistent racial bias and point to the value of policy interventions to mitigate these disparities.
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Claims the paper makes
38 Own result · 17 Own method · 14 Own interpretation · 8 Sources not found · 3 Partly supported · 3 No basis given · 2 No full text of the sources · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“it suffers from the problem of infra-marginality 8,26,27 .”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [8] Anwar, S. & Fang, H. An alternative test of racial prejudice in motor vehicle searches: theory and evidence. Am. Econ. Rev. 96, 127–151 (2006). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction (p. 4) explicitly identifies infra-marginality as a problem for the outcome test: researchers observe average search success rates, not the marginal rates the test requires. It notes that the problem limits empirical applications of the test. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [26] Ayres, I. Outcome tests of racial disparities in police practices. Justice Res. Policy 4, 131–142 (2002). source
- Partly supportedcites [27] Knowles, J., Persico, N. & Todd, P. Racial bias in motor vehicle searches: theory and evidence. J. Polit. Econ. 109, 203–229 (2001). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.3 (page unavailable) explains the infra-marginality problem: when guilt probabilities are exogenous, observed average guilt rates do not identify the marginal motorists relevant to a test for prejudice. But the paper distinguishes that case from its own outcome test, which relies on motorists responding to search probabilities. The unqualified claim omits that distinction. (LLM, conf=0.87)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the threshold test indicates that the bar for searching black and Hispanic drivers is generally lower than that for searching white drivers across the municipal police departments and states we consider.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Search policies do not differ within the geographic subdivisions considered.
- Rests on an assumption: Officers do not disproportionately suspect more serious criminal activity when searching black and Hispanic drivers than when searching white drivers.
- Rests on an assumption: The Bayesian threshold model's functional form and prior distributions are adequate for identifying search thresholds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In all cases, we found qualitatively similarly results that are suggestive of racial bias against black drivers in stop decisions”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In aggregate across cities, the inferred threshold for white drivers is 10.0% compared to 5.0 and 4.6% for black and Hispanic drivers, respectively.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“We note that these results are consistent with self-reported stop rates by white, black and Hispanic drivers who participated in the national PPCS 1 .”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Davis, E., Whyde, A.& Langton, L. Contacts between Police and the Public, 2015 (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2018); http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=6406
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find α s = -0.033(95% CI [-0.039, -0.027], P < 0.001) and α c = -0.039(95% CI [-0.045, -0.033], P < 0.001)”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In these jurisdictions, stopped black and Hispanic drivers were searched about twice as often as stopped white drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For each time period, the plot shows a marked drop in the proportion of drivers stopped after dusk who are black, suggestive of discrimination in stop decisions.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find α s = -0.033(95% CI [-0.039, -0.027], P < 0.001) and α c = -0.039(95% CI [-0.045, -0.033], P < 0.001)”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among stopped drivers, we found that black and Hispanic individuals were, on average, searched more often than white individuals.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 17
- It may state two separate claims as one. 38
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“the threshold test has been proposed as a more robust means for detecting discrimination 7,22 .”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [7] Simoiu, C., Corbett-Davies, S. & Goel, S. The problem of infra-marginality in outcome tests for discrimination. Ann. Appl. Stat. 11, 1193–1216 (2017). source
The Introduction describes the threshold test as a new test for discrimination that mitigates theoretical limitations of outcome analysis. The Conclusion likewise says it addresses shortcomings of the outcome test, supporting the comparison in the claim. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites [22] Pierson, E., Corbett-Davies, S. & Goel, S. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (eds Storkey, A. & Fernando Perez-Cruz, F.) 96–105 (PMLR, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“thresholds cannot be identified by the observed data alone 7 , and so inferences are dependent on the specific functional form of the underlying Bayesian model, including the prior distributions.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [7] Simoiu, C., Corbett-Davies, S. & Goel, S. The problem of infra-marginality in outcome tests for discrimination. Ann. Appl. Stat. 11, 1193–1216 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.3, “Inferring search thresholds” (page unavailable), specifies a Bayesian model with priors, supporting the claim that inference uses modeling assumptions. But a passage reproduced under “Conclusion” says the model would be identified by priors rather than data *without* certain constraints; it does not say thresholds cannot be identified from observed data under the specified model. The paper also says its results are robust to the exact choice of priors, qualifying the claimed dependence on them. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Bayesian threshold model's functional form and prior distributions are adequate for identifying search thresholds.
- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“in the six municipal police departments we consider, the search rates were 9.5% (95% CI 9.4-9.6%)for black drivers, 7.2% (95% CI 7.0-7.3%)for Hispanic drivers and 3.9% (95% CI 3.8-3.9%)for white drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the gap in hit rates between white and Hispanic drivers was 7.6% (95% CI 6.7-8.6%,P < 0.001), and the gap in hit rates between white and black drivers was 2.6% (95% CI 1.9-3.4%,P < 0.001).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimated gaps in search thresholds between white and non-white drivers are large and statistically significant: the 95% credible interval for the Hispanic-white difference is (-6.4,-4.4%) and the corresponding interval for the black-white difference is (-6.1, -4.0%).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Aggregating across state patrol stops, contraband was found in 32.0% (95% CI 31.6-32.4%) of searches of white drivers compared to 24.3% (95% CI 23.5-25.2%) of searches of Hispanic drivers and 29.4% (95% CI 28.7-30.0%) of searches of black drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“aggregating across municipal police departments, contraband was found in 18.2% (95% CI 17.8-18.7%) of searches of white drivers compared to 11.0% (95% CI 10.6-11.5%) of searches of Hispanic drivers and 13.9% (95% CI 13.7-14.2%) of searches of black drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The gap in municipal search rates between black and white drivers was 5.6% (95% CI 5.5-5.7%,P <0.001) and the gap in search rates between Hispanic and white drivers was 3.3% (95% CI 3.1-3.5%,P <0.001).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similarly across states, the inferred threshold for white drivers is 20.9% compared to 16.0% for black drivers and 13.9% for Hispanic drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“among state patrol stops, the annual per-capita stop rate for black drivers was 0.10 compared to 0.07 for white drivers; and among municipal police stops, the annual per-capita stop rate for black drivers was 0.20 compared to 0.14 for white drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the gap in search rates between black and white drivers was 2.4% (95% CI 2.3-2.5%,P < 0.001) and the gap in search rates between Hispanic and white drivers was 2.2% (95% CI 2.1-2.2%,P < 0.001).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For Hispanic drivers, however, we found that stop rates were lower than for white drivers: 0.05 for stops conducted by state patrol (compared to 0.07 for white drivers) and 0.09 for those conducted by municipal police departments (compared to 0.14 for white drivers).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the eight state patrol agencies we consider, search rates were 4.3% (95% CI 4.2-4.4%)for black drivers, 4.1% (95% CI 4.0-4.1%)for Hispanic drivers and 1.9% (95% CI 1.9-1.9%)for white drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the gap in hit rates between white and Hispanic drivers was 7.2% (95% CI 6.6-7.8%,P < 0.001) and the gap in hit rates between white and black drivers was 4.3% (95% CI 3.8-4.8%,P < 0.001).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our primary dataset thus consists of approximately 95 million stops from 21 state patrol agencies and 35 municipal police departments”
- Also stated in: § Data collection and standardization. · plain
“Our primary dataset includes 94,778,505 stops from 21 state patrol agencies and 35 municipal police departments.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Compiling a national database of traffic stops.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § Data collection and standardization. · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the policy change reduced the absolute gap in search rates between race groups; however, the relative gap persisted, with black and Hispanic drivers still more likely to be searched than white drivers post-legalization.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These differences are again large and statistically significant: the 95% credible interval for the Hispanic-white gap is (-8.4,-5.6%); and the analogous interval for the black-white gap is (-6.5%, -3.1%).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the proportion of stops resulting in a search fell substantially in both Colorado and Washington, while in 12 states where marijuana was not legalized, search rates did not show sharp drops at the end of 2012.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Effects of legalization of marijuana.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite marijuana legalization decreasing search rates for white, black and Hispanic drivers, Fig. 4 shows that the relative disparity between white and non-white drivers remains.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Effects of legalization of marijuana.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Supplementary Fig. 3 shows that white drivers faced consistently higher search thresholds than black and Hispanic drivers, both before and after marijuana legalization.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Effects of legalization of marijuana.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The latent signal distributions for each race and county are homoskedastic discriminant distributions.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The parameters φ and δ can be decomposed into additive race and location terms.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each stop, a signal is drawn from the race-and-location-specific distribution; a search occurs if the signal exceeds the race-and-location-specific threshold; if searched, contraband is found with probability equal to the signal.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For all three depicted time windows, black drivers comprise a smaller share of stopped drivers after dark, when a veil of darkness masks their race, suggestive of racial profiling.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The proportion of drivers with typically Hispanic names labelled as Hispanic in the raw data was 70% in Colorado and 79% in Arizona, much higher than in Texas.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite these lower inferred search thresholds, hit rates for black drivers are comparable to those for white drivers, ostensibly due to the problem of infra-marginality in outcome tests.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Supplementary Fig. 3 also shows that the threshold faced by all groups decreases after legalization (although not all drops are statistically significant).”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Effects of legalization of marijuana.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We found that α race r I is large and negative for white, black and Hispanic drivers, suggesting that the observed drop in searches in Colorado and Washington was due to marijuana legalization in those states.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Effects of legalization of marijuana.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each stop, a signal is drawn from the race-and-location-specific distribution; a search occurs if the signal exceeds the race-and-location-specific threshold; if searched, contraband is found with probability equal to the signal.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The outcome test thus indicates that search decisions may be biased against Hispanic drivers, but the evidence is more ambiguous for black drivers.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Officers exercise discretion in whom to search.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the absence of discrimination, searched minority drivers should be found with contraband at the same rate as searched white drivers.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“suggesting discrimination among both state patrols and municipal police departments.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Officers who engage in racial profiling are less able to identify a driver's race after dark than during the day.
- Rests on an assumption: Race-specific driving behaviour is not related more to lighting than to time of day.
- Rests on an assumption: Artificial lighting does not substantially weaken the relationship between sunlight and visibility.
- Rests on an assumption: Violation type is not related to lighting in a way that biases the veil-of-darkness test.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The data thus suggest that, although overall search rates dropped in Washington and Colorado, black and Hispanic drivers still faced discrimination in search decisions.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Search policies do not differ within the geographic subdivisions considered.
- Rests on an assumption: Officers do not disproportionately suspect more serious criminal activity when searching black and Hispanic drivers than when searching white drivers.
- Rests on an assumption: The Bayesian threshold model's functional form and prior distributions are adequate for identifying search thresholds.
In the paper
“past work revealed that Texas State Patrol officers incorrectly recorded many Hispanic drivers as white, an error the agency subsequently corrected 36 .”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [36] Friberg, B. et al. Texas Troopers Ticketing Hispanic Drivers as White (KXAN, 2015); https://www.kxan.com/investigations/texas-troopers-ticketing-hispanic-drivers-as-white/
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We used all available data that were sufficiently complete to conduct our analysis.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The raw data we received from the states and cities, the processed data we used in this analysis and the code to clean and analyse the data are all available for public inspection and reuse.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The threshold test for discrimination was introduced by Simoiu et al. 7 to mitigate the most serious shortcomings of benchmark and outcome analysis.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Simoiu et al. 7
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Under this model of officer behaviour, we interpret lower search thresholds for one group relative to another as evidence of discrimination.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The left panel (Colorado) represents 1,674,619 stops and the right panel (Washington)represents 3,985,677 stops.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“we applied a computationally fast variant of the threshold test developed by Pierson et al. 22 , which we fit separately on both state patrol stops and municipal police stops.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Pierson et al. 22
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we re-categorized as 'Hispanic' all drivers in Texas with Hispanic names who were originally labelled 'white' or who had missing race data; this method adds about 1.9 million stops of Hispanic drivers over the period 2011-2015.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If, for example, officers disproportionately patrol black and Hispanic neighbourhoods, the downstream effects can be injurious even if individual stop decisions are not directly affected by the colour of one's skin.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Discussion
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“can place heavy burdens on black and Hispanic drivers without improving public safety 17 .”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [17] Chohlas-Wood, A., Goel, S., Shoemaker, A. & Shroff, R. An Analysis of the Metropolitan Nashville Police Department’s Traffic Stop Practices https://policylab.stanford.edu/media/nashville-traffic-stops.pdf (Stanford Computational Policy Lab, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“since black drivers were more likely to be charged with such offences previous to legalization, these drivers were also disproportionately impacted by the policy change.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We ran numerous automated checks to detect and correct these where possible, although some errors probably remain due to the complex nature of the data.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We did not exclude any data that were deemed sufficient to conduct our analysis.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Additional information
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“the KPT model of behaviour requires strong assumptions, including that drivers and officers are rational actors and that every driver has perfect knowledge of the likelihood that he or she will be searched.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Assessing bias in traffic stop decisions.
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [28] Engel, R. S. & Tillyer, R. Searching for equilibrium: the tenuous nature of the outcome test. Justice Q. 25, 54–71 (2008). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Following previous studies 38,39 , we defined a name as 'typically' Hispanic if at least 75% of people with that name identified as Hispanic”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [38] Word, D. & Perkins, C. Building a Spanish Surname List for the 1990s: A New Approach to an Old Problem (Population Division, US Census Bureau, 1996).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [39] Melendres v Arpaio (2009). 598 F. Supp. 2d 1025 (D. Ariz., 2009).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For both the state patrol model and the municipal department model, the prediction errors are minimal and similar across race groups.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The threshold test, however, aims to capture only taste-based discrimination, as is common in the empirical literature on discrimination.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We did not re-categorize drivers in any other jurisdiction.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Data collection and standardization.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“although our results are qualitatively similar under alternative averaging schemes.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we limit our analysis to counties and districts with at least 50 searches per race group.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our complete data-cleaning pipeline is extensive and required subjective decisions”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Compiling a national database of traffic stops.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results were statistically significant and qualitatively similar in all cases.”
§ A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States > Veil-of-darkness analysis.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Officers exercise discretion in whom to search.
“Implicit in this test is the assumption that officers exercise discretion in whom to search”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the absence of discrimination, searched minority drivers should be found with contraband at the same rate as searched white drivers.
“Becker argued that even if minority drivers are more likely to carry contraband, in the absence of discrimination, searched minorities should still be found to have contraband at the same rate as searched whites.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Officers who engage in racial profiling are less able to identify a driver's race after dark than during the day.
“Their method starts from the idea that officers who engage in racial profiling are less able to identify a driver's race after dark than during the day.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Race-specific driving behaviour is not related more to lighting than to time of day.
“Results could be skewed if race-specific driving behaviour is related more to lighting than time of day, leading the test to suggest discrimination where there is none.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Artificial lighting does not substantially weaken the relationship between sunlight and visibility.
“artificial lighting (for example, from street lamps) can weaken the relationship between sunlight and visibility, and so the method may underestimate the extent to which stops are predicated on perceived race.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Violation type is not related to lighting in a way that biases the veil-of-darkness test.
“if violation type is related to lighting, the test could give an inaccurate measure of discrimination.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Search policies do not differ within the geographic subdivisions considered.
“if search policies differ not only across, but also within, the geographic subdivisions we consider, then the threshold test might mistakenly indicate discrimination where there is none.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Officers do not disproportionately suspect more serious criminal activity when searching black and Hispanic drivers than when searching white drivers.
“if officers disproportionately suspect more serious criminal activity when searching black and Hispanic drivers compared to white drivers (for example, possession of larger quantities of contraband), then lower observed thresholds may stem from non-discriminatory police practices.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The Bayesian threshold model's functional form and prior distributions are adequate for identifying search thresholds.
“thresholds cannot be identified by the observed data alone 7 , and so inferences are dependent on the specific functional form of the underlying Bayesian model, including the prior distributions.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Marijuana legalization in Colorado and Washington was not confounded by other simultaneous changes, and parallel trends hold.
“Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that legalization reduced both search rates and misdemeanour rates for drug offences for white, black and Hispanic drivers-though a gap in search thresholds persists.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The latent signal distributions for each race and county are homoskedastic discriminant distributions.
“these signal distributions are modelled as homoskedastic discriminant distributions, a class of logit-normal mixture distributions supported on the unit interval [0, 1].”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The parameters φ and δ can be decomposed into additive race and location terms.
“We impose additional structure on the signal distributions by assuming that ϕ r,d and δ r,d can be decomposed into additive race and location terms.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
For each stop, a signal is drawn from the race-and-location-specific distribution; a search occurs if the signal exceeds the race-and-location-specific threshold; if searched, contraband is found with probability equal to the signal.
“For each stop i, we draw a signal p i from the associated race-and location-specific discriminant distribution.If the signal p i exceeds the race-and location-specific threshold t ri;di I , then a search is conducted and S i = 1; otherwise there is no search and S i = 0.If a search is conducted, contraband is found with probability p i , in which case H i = 1; otherwise, H i = 0.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Recreational marijuana legalization took effect on 9 December 2012 in Washington and 10 December 2012 in Colorado.
“Measures legalizing recreational marijuana took effect on 9 December 2012 in Washington, and on 10 December 2012 in Colorado.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In Washington, probable cause searches are barred because the state does not have an automobile exception for warrantless searches.
“in Washington, we note that probable cause searches are barred because the state does not have an automobile exception for warrantless searches.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“These disparities exist even though they cannot be explained by the belief that Black people supposedly commit more crimes, including violent crimes”
From A call to dismantle systemic racism in criminal legal systems. (2022) · cites this paper as Pierson et al., 2020
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Another study, which examined one hundred million traffic stops across the United States, also found that police were less likely to discover contraband or evidence when searching Black and Hispanic drivers than White drivers.”
From The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System (2025) · cites this paper as Pierson et al. 2020
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“They also found that Black drivers were less likely to be stopped by police after sunset-or, put another way, more likely to be stopped during daytime hours when skin color is more readily apparent (Pierson et al. 2020).”
From The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System (2025) · cites this paper as Pierson et al. 2020
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“Skin tone (i.e., colorism) has long been identified as among the most salient markers for discrimination (10, 11).”
From Nobel and novice: Author prominence affects peer review (2022) · cites this paper as [10]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“SROs do not effectively reduce crime in schools (60)”
From Structural Racism and Suicide Prevention for Ethnoracially Minoritized Youth: A Conceptual Framework and Illustration Across Systems (2022) · cites this paper as [60]
Citations
Cites
Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines
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Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., & Rubin, D. B. (2003) · doi:10.1201/9780429258480 · Cited by 27,276
Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009) · doi:10.1515/9781400829828 · Cited by 9,467
Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2008) · doi:10.2307/j.ctvcm4j72 · Cited by 5,051
The Economics of Discrimination.
Collard, D. A., & Becker, G. S. (1972) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2230052 · Cited by 3,642
The No-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte CarloPreprint
Homan, M. D., & Gelman, A. (2014) · arXiv (Cornell University) · Cited by 3,078
POSTERIOR PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF MODEL FITNESS VIA REALIZED DISCREPANCIES
Gelman, A., Meng, X., & Stern, H. S. (1996) · Cited by 1,982
Gardner, W. P., Mulvey, E. P., & Shaw, E. C. (1995) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.118.3.392 · Cited by 1,840
The Economics of Discrimination
Becker, G. S. (1971) · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226041049.001.0001 · Cited by 1,794
Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior
Becker, G. S. (1993) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261880 · Cited by 1,619
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Pierson, E., Corbett-Davies, S. & Goel, S. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (eds Storkey, A. & Fernando Perez-Cruz, F.) 96–105 (PMLR, 2018).
- Jung, J., Concannon, C., Shroff, R., Goel, S. & Goldstein, D.G. Simple rules to guide expert classifications. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A (in the press).
- Arrow, K. in Discrimination in Labor Markets (eds Ashenfelter, O. & Rees, A.) 3–33 (Princeton Univ. Press, 1973).
- Phelps, E. The statistical theory of racism and sexism. Am. Econ. Rev. 62, 659–661 (1972).
Cited by
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Doesn't Everybody Jaywalk? On Codified Rules that are Seldom Followed and Selectively PunishedPreprint
Wylie, J., & Gantman, A. P. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4109941
“…selfish (though technically legal) behavior (e.g., Bernhard et al., 2006; Schiller et al., 2014; Yudkin et al., 2016) and are evident in the massive racial inequality in the American criminal justice system (Arnold et al., 2018; Bender et al., 2021; Huebner and Bynum, 2008; Pierson et al., 2020).”
BackgroundKuzio, J., & Li, W. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4149587
The Nature, Detection, and Avoidance of Harmful Discrimination in Criminal JusticePreprint
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An Anti-Oppressive Social Work Approach to Public Safety and Judicial Responses
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A DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ON THE DETECTION OF RACIAL PROFILING
Herminghaus, S., & Heidemann, K. M. (2022) · Advances in Complex Systems · doi:10.1142/s0219525922500072
Rennert, L. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4273570
Do Black Taxpayers Matter? A Critical Tax Analysis of IRS Audit PracticesPreprint
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Maintaining Order in the Face of Disagreement
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Policing in a Complex and Coupled Criminal Legal System
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Legitimacy Risks and the Separation of Police Powers
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On the Democratic Authorization of Police Power
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To Protect (and Serve), Proportionally
Monaghan, J. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197610725.003.0005
Monaghan, J. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197610725.003.0008
The Problem of Police Legitimacy
Monaghan, J. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197610725.003.0003
Monaghan, J. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197610725.003.0009
Detecting Bias in Traffic Searches: Examining false searches of innocent driversPreprint
Meyer, M. A., & Gonzalez, R. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/2mgc5
A review of cultural and ethnic bias in investigative decision-making: selected cases
Minhas, R., & Frumkin, L. A. (2023) · Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice · doi:10.1080/15377938.2023.2232316
Insights from Social Psychology: Racial Norms, Stereotypes, and Discrimination
Seguino, S. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-19-4166-5_47
Valenzi, N. (2023) · Western Journal of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.5811/westjem.61594
Untethering the Respective Criminal Justice Systems from Their Settler Colonial Roots
Warde, B. (2023) · Critical criminological perspectives · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-38157-7_11
Small-Town Police Accountability: Challenges and RecommendationsPreprint
Kelling, C., Haensch, A., Mendible, A., Brooks, S., Wiedemann, A., Aminian, M., Hasty, W., & Higdon, J. (2023) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/2gyuv
Delegated Vigilantism and Less-than-lethal Lynching in Twenty-first Century AmericaPreprint
Tonry, M. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4560669
Sommers, R., & Bohns, V. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4554126 · Cited by 6
Police Discriminatory Enforcement and Excessive Force
MacLean, C. E., & Densley, J. A. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-39082-1_7
Forewarned is forearmed: the hidden curriculum of working with police crime dataPreprint
Curtis‐Ham, S., Tompson, L., & Czarnomski, S. (2023) · CrimRxiv · doi:10.21428/cb6ab371.bcf6fb54
Felon re-enfranchisement, race, and arrestsPreprint
Epifanio, M., Leo, R. D., & Damioli, G. (2023) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/e37d2
Special Issue on Social Emergency Medicine
Saucedo, C. (2023) · Western Journal of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.5811/westjem.62279 · Cited by 1
Health disparities in ethnic and racial minority populations with pain and opioid use disorder
DeBruin, H., & Marie, B. S. (2023) · Journal of Opioid Management · doi:10.5055/jom.2023.0796
Racial Equity in Police Use of Social Media Monitoring SoftwarePreprint
Burkhardt, B. C., Borradaile, G., & Gelvin, B. (2023) · SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/rz2sp
Unintended consequences of reform: Police search policies distort perceptions of voluntary consentPreprint
Meyer, M., Camp, N. P., & Sommers, R. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/3hy6j
Reducing Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Technical Violations of Probation or Parole Supervision
Russo, J., Peterson, S., Vermeer, M. J. D., et al. (2023) · RAND Corporation eBooks · doi:10.7249/rra108-20
Williams, S., Quach, A. M., McMillian, M., & Hepburn, A. M. (2023) · Journal of Urban Health · doi:10.1007/s11524-023-00808-w
“Disproportionate traffic and pedestrian stops in urban areas further contribute to inequitable arrest rates and interactions with police [12, 13, 17].”
How Long is Long Enough: Using Abbreviated Criminal Histories for Pretrial Assessment Instruments?Preprint
DeMichele, M. T., Inkpen, C. S., Silver, I. A., & Walker, J. W. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4615029
Pettus‐Davis, C., & Kennedy, S. C. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197694732.003.0033
Policy Reform: Rethinking Criminal Justice
Sapp, K. (2024) · SpringerBriefs in offending populations & correctional psychotherapy · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-50678-9_4
Egnell, S. (2024) · doi:10.24834/isbn.9789178774272
Prosecutor Transparency Project: Racial Disparities Study (Washtenaw County, Michigan)Preprint
Bridges, G., & Prescott, J. J. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4680695
Interstate Highway Connections and Traced Gun Transfers Between the 48 Contiguous United States
Roberts, L. E., Hoofnagle, M. H., Bushover, B. R., et al. (2024) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.5662
Measuring Carceral Political Discussion and its Political ConsequencesPreprint
English, J. H. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4787980
Racial Representation in Local Government and Racial Disparities in PolicingPreprint
Wang, X., Jones, D. B., & Zeng, J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4816595
SEXUAL ABUSE: A MULTI-FACETED PROBLEM
Venable, M. (2024) · Louisiana State University · doi:10.31390/gradschool_dissertations.6491
Causal Racism: An Explanatory FrameworkPreprint
Thomas, M. A. (2024) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/jbdnx
A Causal Perspective on Label Bias
Mhasawade, V., D’Amour, A., & Pfohl, S. R. (2024) · ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) · doi:10.1145/3630106.3658972
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0001
There are no epistemic norms of inquiry
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0005
The Standard Picture revisited
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0010
The argument from minimal criteria
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0006
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0008
(2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.002.0003
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0009
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0007
(2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.002.0004
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0011
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0002
An account of rational inquiry
Thorstad, D. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198886143.003.0004
Judicial Bias and Ethnic Disparities at the ICTY: Evidence from 30 Years of ProsecutionsPreprint
Hashimoto, B., & Gray, K. W. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4860722
Curbing Pretextual Stops: Racial Disparities and Policing OutcomesPreprint
Beland, L., Huh, J., & Kim, D. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4888255
Not as Simple as it Looked: Are We Concluding for Biased Arrest Practices?
Özer, M., Akbas, H., Onat, I., et al. (2023) · International Conference on Computational Science and Computational Intelligence (CSCI) · doi:10.1109/csci62032.2023.00120
“The study by Pierson et al. (2020), analyzing a vast dataset of traffic stops, revealed a higher likelihood of African Americans being stopped compared to their white counterparts [16].”
BackgroundDumortier, J., & Buerger, C. (2024) · Journal of Urban Affairs · doi:10.1080/07352166.2024.2388050
“Our approaches are consistent with the empirical models used by Pierson et al. (2020).”
InfluentialBather, J. R., Silver, D., Gill, B. P., Harris, A., Bae, J. Y., Parikh, N. S., & Goodman, M. S. (2024) · Injury Epidemiology · doi:10.1186/s40621-024-00538-w
“Collider bias may affect our results, as police interactions are not randomly distributed (Goel et al. 2016; Hannon 2020; Knox et al. 2020; Knox and Mummolo 2020a, b; Pierson et al. 2020).”
BackgroundHanson-DeFusco, J., Lamberova, N., Mickles, B., et al. (2024) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci13110604
“Black Americans are about 20 percent more likely to be pulled over by police while driving than white drivers (Pierson et al. 2020), and they are nearly three times more likely to be killed by police than white citizens).”
Outcomes in American Democracy
Hajnal, Z. L., Hutchings, V. L., & Lee, T. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108633352.015
Editorial Board Representation in Criminology: A Call to Address Racial Disparities
Breetzke, G. D. (2024) · Race and Justice · doi:10.1177/21533687241300259 · Cited by 1
“In simpli fi ed crude “ chronological ” order, non-Whites are more likely to be stopped and searched (Pierson et al., 2020), frisked (Khan et al., 2021), arrested (Stevenson & Mayson, 2018), incarcerated (Nellis, 2016), wrongly incarcerated (Gross et al., 2022), denied plea bargains (Berdejó, 2018),…”
Studebaker, M. (2024) · Argumentation and Advocacy · doi:10.1080/10511431.2024.2443301
“Not only are Black individuals arrested at significantly higher rates, but they are also more likely to be stopped by police than their white peers (Pierson et al. 2020).”
Distracted partners: Why police traffic enforcement is inefficient
Love, A., Greenberger, M., Wang, Y., & Baumgartner, F. R. (2025) · Policy Studies Journal · doi:10.1111/psj.12589
“…as well as others based on millions of data points from public records of actual police stops (e.g., Baumgartner et al., 2018; Knox et al., 2020; Pierson et al., 2020) confirms ideas of over-policing minority drivers and neighborhoods and the use of the traffic code for needle- in- the-haystack…”
Black Neighbors Matter: Officer Neighborhoods and Racial Differences in PolicingPreprint
Domènech-Arumí, G. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5092607
Schwarzenbach, A. (2025) · European Sociological Review · doi:10.1093/esr/jcaf006
Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches
Feigenberg, B., & Miller, C. (2025) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w33629 · Cited by 1
Slobogin, C. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009586931.017
Policing Poverty: Evidence from a New York City Subway Fare Evasion CrackdownPreprint
stolper, H. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5220957
A Call to Dismantle Systemic Racism in Criminal Legal SystemsPreprint
Najdowski, C. J., & Stevenson, M. C. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5145326
We are Missing Multiple Model Integration in the Psychology of Implicit Bias
Lackey, N. (2025) · Topoi · doi:10.1007/s11245-025-10202-7
“Racial disparities in treatment by law enforcement are well-documented (Pierson et al. 2020; Sawyer 2020; Alexander 2020; Eberhardt 2019), and implicit bias is often a central part of the explanation for these disparities.”
How Antiracist Frameworks Can Transform Policing Procedures: A Qualitative Case Study
Moore, T. (2025) · Race and Justice · doi:10.1177/21533687251333805
“…consistently demonstrate that BIPOC individuals are more likely to be stopped by police, searched without cause, arrested, and subjected to excessive use of force compared to White individuals (Epp et al., 2017; Persico & Todd, 2008; Pierson et al., 2020; Ross et al., 2021; Seguino & Brooks, 2021).”
Exploring Intersectional Differences In Employment And Desistance
Novick, R. (2023) · Scholars Archive - University at Albany (University at Albany, State University of New York) · doi:10.54014/1b1r-z5eh
Foresta, A. (2025) · The Journal of Law and Economics · doi:10.1086/731977
Beyond Identification: A Problem-Oriented Approach to Diagnosing Racial Disparities in Policing
Knode, J., Carter, T. M., & Wolfe, S. E. (2025) · Journal of quantitative criminology · doi:10.1007/s10940-025-09618-6
Breaking Down Bias: On The Limits of Generalizable Pruning Strategies
Ma, S., Salinas, A., Henderson, P., & Nyarko, J. (2025) · ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) · doi:10.1145/3715275.3732161
Uzuegbunam, I. S.-P. (2025) · Administrative Sciences · doi:10.3390/admsci15070262
Millions of Decisions: The Level and Trajectory of Racial Discrimination Since 1910Preprint
Rothwell, J., & Villalonga-Olives, E. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-6839225/v1
The Ethics of Defunding the PolicePreprint
Jones, B., & Lim, D. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5366454
Fang, R. (2025) · Journal of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering · doi:10.1177/14727978251361400
O’Connell, H. A., Venable, M., & Larrison, K. (2025) · Race and Social Problems · doi:10.1007/s12552-025-09446-0
Mukherjee, S., & Mukherjee, S. (2025) · Socio-Economic Planning Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.seps.2025.102311
The effect of civilian monitoring on fatal encounters
Harvey, M. (2025) · Contemporary Economic Policy · doi:10.1111/coep.70010
Ageism and Voting Behaviour in a Fictitious Election Situation in Japan
Shimizu, Y. (2025) · International Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1002/ijop.70105
Ray, K. F., Jeffrey, C. E., Armstrong, K. E., & Watkins, L. G. (2025) · The Counseling Psychologist · doi:10.1177/00110000251371086
“1; Pierson et al., 2020; Smith, 2013).”
InfluentialGhost Gun Recovery and Firearm Deaths in California, 2014-2023Preprint
Bather, J. R., Mauri, A. I., Lindenfeld, Z., et al. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.09.08.25335327
Li, S., Wei, R., Wallace, D., Grubesic, T., & Liu, X. (2026) · Journal of Urban Affairs · doi:10.1080/07352166.2025.2548828 · Cited by 1
“However, in San Diego, racial disparities exist in policing: African Americans and Hispanics are more frequently stopped and searched than non-Hispanic Whites by the San Diego Police Department (Campain Zero n.d.; Chanin et al. 2018; Welsh et al. 2021).”
InfluentialSeeking Justice: Understanding Community Leader Support for Black Young People's Activism
Fix, R. L., Habib, L. A., McWilliams, E., & Jackson, D. B. (2025) · Journal of Community Psychology · doi:10.1002/jcop.70050
Do police tactics matter? Street-level drug enforcement and the likelihood of felony prosecution
Paul, N. D. (2025) · Police Practice & Research · doi:10.1080/15614263.2025.2572809
“Research suggests police discover drugs in less than 30% of searches conducted during traffic stops (Pierson et al., 2020; Shjarback et al., 2017).”
Hannon, L., & Biddle, M. (2025) · American Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1007/s12103-025-09879-8 · Cited by 1
“Recent research efforts have succeeded in enhancing the accessibility of necessary data and code for conducting veil-of-darkness tests (Knode et al., 2024; Pierson et al., 2020 ).”
Tough Shift: The Temporal Dynamics of Police Discretion
Olson, M., & Adams, I. T. (2025) · Journal of Quantitative Criminology · doi:10.1007/s10940-026-09683-5
Testing for racial bias using inconsistent perceptions of race
Gera, N., & Pierson, E. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adx5829 · Cited by 1
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Pierson, E., Simoiu, C., Overgoor, J., Corbett-Davies, S., Jenson, D., Shoemaker, A., Ramachandran, V., Barghouty, P., Phillips, C., Shroff, R., & Goel, S.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- New York University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Goel, Sharad
- Venue
- Nature Human Behaviour
- Published
- 2020-05-04
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 736-745
- ISSN
- 2397-3374 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2705765409
- Cited by
- 552
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 59 · 2025: 74 · 2024: 97 · 2023: 109 · 2022: 79 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 34
- FWCI
- 254.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Human Behaviour (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- John S. and James L. Knight Foundation
- Hellman Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Education › Education Discipline and Inequality
- Keywords
- racial disparities in policing, traffic stops, police searches, racial bias, Black drivers, recreational cannabis legalization, contraband, racial profiling, United States
- MeSH terms
- Automobile Driving, Black or African American, Female, Hispanic or Latino, Humans, Male, Time Factors, United States, Police, White People, Racism
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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