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Infectious disease in an era of global change
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The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.
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“Infectious disease, meanwhile, remain deeply dependant on climate changes and the related surges of zoonotic risks [4].”
From Colonial transition as a major mediator of global health transition: lessons from the 2024 New Caledonia crisis (2025) · cites this paper as [4]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Baker, R. E., Mahmud, A. S., Miller, I. F., Rajeev, M., Rasambainarivo, F., Rice, B. L., Takahashi, S., Tatem, A. J., Wagner, C. E., Wang, L.-F., Wesolowski, A., & Metcalf, C. J. E.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- University of Southampton (GB)
- McGill University (CA)
- Duke University (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Baker, Rachel E.
- Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Reviews Microbiology
- Published
- 2021-10-13
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 193-205
- ISSN
- 1740-1526 (ISSN-L)
- 1740-1534
- PMC
- PMC8513385
- OpenAlex
- W3205480029
- Cited by
- 2,059
- References
- 168
- Citations by year
- 2026: 358 · 2025: 602 · 2024: 595 · 2023: 359 · 2022: 139 · 2021: 4
- FWCI
- 49.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Reviews Microbiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Burroughs Wellcome Fund
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911)
- Princeton University
- National Research Foundation (NRF2012NRFCRP001-056, NRF2016NRF-NSFC002-013)
- National Research Foundation Singapore (NRF2016NRF, NRF2012NRF‐CRP001‐056, NRF2016NRF-NSFC002-013, CRP001-056)
- Ministry of Education - Singapore (MOE2019-T2-2-130)
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Ministry of Education, India
- National Institutes of Health
- Medical Research Council
- National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF-003, MOH-OFIRG19MAY-0011)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (1R01A1160780–01, R01AI160780)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine (DP2LM013102)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD073964)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- infectious disease outbreaks, global change, COVID-19 pandemic, SARS, swine influenza, MERS, Ebola virus disease, Zika virus, climate change, urbanization, international travel
- MeSH terms
- Zika Virus Infection, Zika Virus, COVID-19, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Pandemics, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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