The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 24 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Preindustrial 14CH4 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions
Open accessAbstract
Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era1. Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate2,3. Carbon-14 in CH4 (14CH4) can be used to distinguish between fossil (14C-free) CH4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources; however, poorly constrained direct 14CH4 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century4,5. Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH4 per year)2,3 between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate; emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH4 per year6,7. Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago8, but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core 14CH4 measurements to show that natural geological CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)—an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions9,10. Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.
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Cites
Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain
Alvarez, R. A., Zavala-Araiza, D., Lyon, D. R., Allen, D. T., Barkley, Z. R., Brandt, A. R., Davis, K. J., Herndon, S. C., Jacob, D. J., Karion, A., et al. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aar7204 · Cited by 1,187
The global methane budget 2000–2012
Saunois, M., Bousquet, P., Poulter, B., Peregon, A., Ciais, P., Canadell, J. G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Etiope, G., Bastviken, D., Houweling, S., et al. (2016) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 · Cited by 1,060
Self-citationAtmospheric radiocarbon for the period 1950–2010
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Self-citationHistorical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., et al. (2017) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017 · Cited by 697
Self-citationFate of rising methane bubbles in stratified waters: How much methane reaches the atmosphere?
McGinnis, D. F., Greinert, J., Artemov, Y., Beaubien, S. E., & Wüest, A. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/2005jc003183 · Cited by 668
Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database
Schwietzke, S., Sherwood, O. A., Bruhwiler, L. M. P., Miller, J. B., Etiope, G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Michel, S. E., Arling, V. A., Vaughn, B. H., White, J. W. C., et al. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature19797 · Cited by 589
Self-citationGridded maps of geological methane emissions and their isotopic signature
Etiope, G., Ciotoli, G., Schwietzke, S., & Schoell, M. (2019) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-11-1-2019 · Cited by 271
Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives
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Global anthropogenic methane emissions 2005–2030: technical mitigation potentials and costs
Höglund-Isaksson, L. (2012) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-12-9079-2012 · Cited by 167
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The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
Saunois, M., Stavert, A. R., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Raymond, P. A., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Patra, P. K., et al. (2019) · doi:10.5194/essd-2019-128 · Cited by 2,760
Self-citationThe Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
Saunois, M., Stavert, A. R., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Raymond, P. A., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Patra, P. K., et al. (2020) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020 · Cited by 2,711
Self-citationHalf of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources
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Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters
Lauvaux, T., Giron, C., Mazzolini, M., d’Aspremont, A., Duren, R., Cusworth, D., Shindell, D., & Ciais, P. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abj4351 · Cited by 423
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Metadata
- Authors
- Hmiel, B., Petrenko, V. V., Dyonisius, M. N., Buizert, C., Smith, A. M., Place, P. F., Harth, C., Beaudette, R., Hua, Q., Yang, B., Vimont, I., Michel, S. E., Severinghaus, J. P., Etheridge, D., Bromley, T., Schmitt, J., Faïn, X., Weiss, R. F., & Dlugokencky, E.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2020-02-19
- Volume
- 578
- Issue
- 7795
- Pages
- 409-412
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W3008196805
- Cited by
- 312
- References
- 24
- FWCI
- 20.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Hmiel, B., Petrenko, V. V., Dyonisius, M. N., Buizert, C., Smith, A. M., Place, P. F., Harth, C., Beaudette, R., Hua, Q., Yang, B., Vimont, I., Michel, S. E., Severinghaus, J. P., Etheridge, D., Bromley, T., Schmitt, J., Faïn, X., Weiss, R. F., & Dlugokencky, E. (2020). Preindustrial 14CH4 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1991-8
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