The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
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Abstract
Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). Assessing the relative importance of CH4 in comparison to CO2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down approach) to be 572 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 538–593, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the ensemble), of which 357 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ~ 60 % are attributed to anthropogenic sources (range 50–65 %). This total emission is 27 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the value estimated for the period 2000–2009 and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for the period 2003–2012 (Saunois et al. 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the carbon intensive scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Gidden et al., 2019). Bottom-up methods suggest larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 583–880) than top-down inversion methods, mostly because of larger estimated natural emissions from sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources. However the strength of the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, suggest that these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (~ 65 % of the global budget,
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Globally, about 10% of anthropogenic global CH4 is emitted by biomass burning.
“Globally, about 10 % of anthropogenic global CH 4 is emitted by biomass burning (Saunois et al., 2020) and may be an important and unaccounted for positive feedback to climate change, given the effect of increasing temperatures on fire severity.”
From Ground solar absorption observations of total column CO, CO <sub>2</sub> , CH <sub>4</sub> , and aerosol optical depth from California's Sequoia Lightning Complex Fire: emission factors and modified combustion efficiency at regional scales (2023) · cites this paper as Saunois et al., 2020
The Biomass burning section (p. 16) estimates biomass-burning emissions at about 5% of global anthropogenic methane emissions in 2008–2017, not about 10%. The separate Biofuel burning section (p. 17) assigns biofuel burning another 3%; the cited paper does not assign their combined share to biomass burning alone. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBottom-up CH4 inventories tend to report large uncertainties.
“however, these bottom-up CH 4 inventories tend to report large uncertainties (Saunois et al., 2020).”
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- Authors
- Saunois, M., Stavert, A. R., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Raymond, P. A., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Patra, P. K., Ciais, P., Arora, V. K., Bastviken, D., Bergamaschi, P., Blake, D. R., Brailsford, G., Bruhwiler, L., Carlson, K. M., Carrol, M., Castaldi, S., Chandra, N., Crevoisier, C., Crill, P. M., Covey, K., Curry, C. L., Etiope, G., Frankenberg, C., Gedney, N., Hegglin, M. I., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Hugelius, G., Ishizawa, M., Ito, A., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Jensen, K. M., Joos, F., Kleinen, T., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., Laruelle, G. G., Liu, L., Machida, T., Maksyutov, S., McDonald, K. C., McNorton, J., Miller, P. A., Melton, J. R., Morino, I., Müller, J., Murguia-Flores, F., Naik, V., Niwa, Y., Noce, S., O'Doherty, S., Parker, R. J., Peng, C., Peng, S., Peters, G. P., Prigent, C., Prinn, R., Ramonet, M., Regnier, P., Riley, W. J., Rosentreter, J. A., Segers, A., Simpson, I. J., Shi, H., Smith, S. J., Steele, L. P., Thornton, B. F., Tian, H., Tohjima, Y., Tubiello, F. N., Tsuruta, A., Viovy, N., Voulgarakis, A., Weber, T. S., van Weele, M., van der Werf, G. R., Weiss, R. F., Worthy, D., Wunch, D., Yin, Y., Yoshida, Y., Zhang, W., Zhang, Z., Zhao, Y., Zheng, B., Zhu, Q., Zhu, Q., & Zhuang, Q.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Stanford University (US)
- Yale University (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Space Research Organisation Netherlands (NL)
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- Linköping University (SE)
- European Commission (BE)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NZ)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RU)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Skidmore College (US)
- University of Victoria (CA)
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT)
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Met Office (GB)
- University of Reading (GB)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- City College of New York (US)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- Lund University (SE)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- University of Leicester (GB)
- Université du Québec à Montréal (CA)
- Peking University (CN)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- Southern Cross University (AU)
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (NL)
- Auburn University (US)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Rochester (US)
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Corresponding author
- Saunois, Marielle
- ORCID
- Saunois, Marielle
- Poulter, Ben
- Bousquet, Philippe
- Canadell, Josep G.
- Jackson, Robert B.
- Raymond, Peter A.
- Houweling, Sander
- Patra, Prabir K.
- Ciais, Philippe
- Bastviken, David
- Bergamaschi, Peter
- Carlson, Kimberly M.
- Chandra, Naveen
- Crill, Patrick M.
- Etiope, Giuseppe
- Frankenberg, Christian
- Gedney, Nicola
- Hegglin, Michaela I.
- Höglund-Isaksson, Lena
- Hugelius, Gustaf
- Ishizawa, Misa
- Ito, Akihiko
- Janssens-Maenhout, Greet
- Joos, Fortunat
- Kleinen, Thomas
- Krummel, Paul B.
- Laruelle, Goulven G.
- Liu, Licheng
- Maksyutov, Shamil
- Miller, Paul A.
- Melton, Joe R.
- Morino, Isamu
- Müller, Jurek
- Niwa, Yosuke
- Noce, Sergio
- O'Doherty, Simon
- Parker, Robert J.
- Peng, Changhui
- Peng, Shushi
- Peters, Glen P.
- Prigent, Catherine
- Prinn, Ronald
- Ramonet, Michel
- Regnier, Pierre
- Riley, William J.
- Segers, Arjo
- Shi, Hao
- Thornton, Brett F.
- Tian, Hanqin
- Tohjima, Yasunori
- Tubiello, Francesco N.
- Tsuruta, Aki
- Viovy, Nicolas
- Voulgarakis, Apostolos
- van Weele, Michiel
- van der Werf, Guido R.
- Weiss, Ray F.
- Worthy, Doug
- Wunch, Debra
- Yin, Yi
- Yoshida, Yukio
- Zhang, Wenxin
- Zhang, Zhen
- Zhao, Yuanhong
- Zheng, Bo
- Zhu, Qiuan
- Zhuang, Qianlai
- Venue
- Earth System Science Data
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2020-07-15
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 1561-1623
- ISSN
- 1866-3508 (ISSN-L)
- 1866-3516
- OpenAlex
- W2810313091
- Cited by
- 2,711
- References
- 17
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- FWCI
- 133.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
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- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Joint Research Centre (European Commission) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Open Access CRIS of the University of Bern
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DEAC02-05CH11231, 2143449)
- U.S. Department of Energy (-AC02-05CH11231, 05CH11231, DE AC02 05CH11231, DE-AC02-)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16AK04G, NNX17AI74G, DE-AC02-05CH11231, NNX11AF16G, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, NNX07AE87G, NNX11AF15G, NNX17AK11G, NNX17AK20G, NNX07AF09G, NNX16AC98G)
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF5439)
- University of Minnesota
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (JPMEERF21S20800)
- European Commission (725546, 951288, CAMS73, EU-H2020, HORIZON2020, H2020, DE-AC02-05CH11231, 101015825, 101003536, ESM2025, 776810, 773421)
- Met Office (101003536)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-21-CE01-0030, DE-AC02-05CH11231, ANR-16-IDEX-0008)
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (DEAC02-05CH11231, 172476)
- Swedish National Space Agency (2016-01201, 209/19)
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (2022-03841, 209/19, 2020-05338, 773421, 2016-01201, 2018-01794, 2018-04516)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LP1921A, 01LP1507B, DE-AC02-05CH11231, EU H2020)
- Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS (T.0191.23)
- Belgian Federal Science Policy Office
- Linköpings Universitet
- Vetenskapsrådet (2020-05338, 2018-04516, 725546, 2018-, 2022-03841)
- Scheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration
- Office of Science (DEAC02–05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02, 05CH11231)
- University of California, Irvine
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (101015825, 101015825 TRIAGE, 951288, 776810, ESM2025, 773421, EU‐H2020, 725546, CAMS73, 101003536)
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (DE-AC02-05CH11231, 371706)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/N018079/1, NE/N015657/1, nceo020005, DE-AC02-05CH11231)
- Australian Research Council (LP150100519)
- Australian Antarctic Division
- Biological and Environmental Research (05CH11231, DE-AC02 − 05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (NE/N015657/1, nceo020005)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (AC02‐05CH11231, DE-AC02-05CH11231, 05CH11231)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Keywords
- methane budget, anthropogenic methane sources, wetland methane emissions, bottom-up emission estimation, methane sinks, hydroxyl radicals, methane lifetime, methane growth rate, climate change mitigation, Global Carbon Project
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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