Student or educator? Sign up with your school email and get 6 months of Pro free.
CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 2,858

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 4 of the 4 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

Open access
Neumann, Barbara, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Zimmermann, Juliane, Nicholls, Robert J.·2015·PLOS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pone.0118571

Cites

4 of 4 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

Show all 4 references

Research works printed but not linked: 45

  1. C Small, 2003, A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones, Journal of Coastal Research, 19, 584
  2. G Hugo, 2011, Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change, Global Environmental Change, 21, S21, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.008 · DOI · Paper page
  3. K Smith, 2011, We are seven billion, Nature Climate Change, 1, 331, 10.1038/nclimate1235 · DOI
  4. G McGranahan, The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization2007, 19, 17, 10.1177/0956247807076960 · DOI · Paper page
  5. M Lichter, 2011, Exploring Data-Related Uncertainties in Analyses of Land Area and Population in the "Low-Elevation Coastal Zone" (LECZ), Journal of Coastal Research, 27, 757, 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00072.1 · DOI · Paper page
  6. KC Seto, 2011, A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion, PLoS ONE, 6, e23777, 10.1371/journal.pone.0023777 · DOI · Paper page
  7. KC Seto, 2011, Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia and Africa: Contemporary drivers and future scenarios, Global Environmental Change, 21, S94, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.005 · DOI · Paper page
  8. A de Sherbinin, 2012, Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas, Environmental Research Letters, 7, 045602, 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045602 · DOI
  9. RJ Nicholls, 2008, Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment, Sustainability Science, 3, 89, 10.1007/s11625-008-0050-4 · DOI · Paper page
  10. M Fragkias, 2012, The Rise and Rise of Urban Expansion, Global Change Magazine, 78, 16
  11. RJ Nicholls, 2004, Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environmental Change, 14, 69, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.007 · DOI · Paper page
  12. JPM Syvitski, 2009, Sinking deltas due to human activities, Nat Geosci, 2, 681, 10.1038/ngeo629 · DOI · Paper page
  13. S Hanson, 2011, A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes, Climatic Change, 104, 89, 10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4 · DOI · Paper page
  14. W Kron, 2013, Coasts: the high-risk areas of the world, Natural Hazards, 66, 1363, 10.1007/s11069-012-0215-4 · DOI · Paper page
  15. RJ Nicholls, 2014, Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5, 129
  16. RJ Nicholls, 2010, Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones, Science, 328, 1517, 10.1126/science.1185782 · DOI · Paper page
  17. M Esteban, 2013, Recent tsunamis events and preparedness: Development of tsunami awareness in Indonesia, Chile and Japan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5, 84, 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.07.002 · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.07.002
  18. RJ Nicholls, 2008, Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND, Climatic Change, 91, 171, 10.1007/s10584-008-9424-y · doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9424-y
  19. S Dasgupta, 2009, The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis, Climatic Change, 93, 379, 10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5 · DOI · Paper page
  20. RJ Nicholls, 1999, Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses, Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 9, S69, 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00019-9 · DOI · Paper page
  21. S Dasgupta, 2011, Exposure of developing countries to sea-level rise and storm surges, Climatic Change, 106, 567, 10.1007/s10584-010-9959-6 · DOI · Paper page
  22. J Hinkel, 2010, Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15, 703, 10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y · DOI
  23. E McLeod, 2010, Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle, Sustain Sci, 5, 207, 10.1007/s11625-010-0105-1 · DOI
  24. J Hinkel, 2011, Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA, Reg Envir Chang, 12, 1
  25. E McLeod, 2010, Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications, Ocean and Coastal Management, 53, 507, 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2010.06.009 · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2010.06.009
  26. P Mondal, 2012, Uncertainties in Measuring Populations Potentially Impacted by Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding, PLoS ONE, 7, e48191, 10.1371/journal.pone.0048191 · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048191
  27. Hallegatte Sp, 2011, Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen, Climatic Change, 104, 113, 10.1007/s10584-010-9978-3 · DOI · Paper page
  28. A Schneider, 2009, A new map of global urban extent from MODIS satellite data, Environmental Research Letters, 4, 044003, 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044003 · DOI · Paper page
  29. A Schneider, 2010, Mapping global urban areas using MODIS 500-m data: New methods and datasets based on ‘urban ecoregions’, Remote Sensing of Environment, 114, 1733, 10.1016/j.rse.2010.03.003 · DOI · Paper page
  30. SR Gaffin, 2004, Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 14, 105, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.02.004 · DOI
  31. KC Seto, 2010, The new geography of contemporary urbanization and the environment, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 35, 167, 10.1146/annurev-environ-100809-125336 · DOI · Paper page
  32. AT Vafeidis, 2008, A New Global Coastal Database for Impact and Vulnerability Analysis to Sea-Level Rise, Journal of Coastal Research, 24, 917, 10.2112/06-0725.1 · DOI · Paper page
  33. JP Ericson, 2006, Effective sea-level rise and deltas: Causes of change and human dimension implications, Global and Planetary Change, 50, 63, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.07.004 · DOI · Paper page
  34. MC Maloney, 2014, A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications, Climate Risk Management, 2, 26, 10.1016/j.crm.2014.02.004 · DOI
  35. K Warner, 2010, Global environmental change and migration: Governance challenges, Global Environmental Change, 20, 402, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.12.001 · DOI · Paper page
  36. J Hinkel, 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3292
  37. KJ Curtis, 2011, Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise, Population & Environment, 33, 28, 10.1007/s11111-011-0136-2 · DOI
  38. D Potere, 2007, A critical look at representations of urban areas in global maps, GeoJournal, 69, 55, 10.1007/s10708-007-9102-z · DOI · Paper page
  39. W Lutz, 2010, Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 365, 2779, 10.1098/rstb.2010.0133 · DOI · Paper page
  40. B Jongman, 2012, Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes, Global Environmental Change, 22, 823, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004 · DOI · Paper page
  41. E Rodriguez, 2006, A global assessment of the SRTM performance, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 72, 249, 10.14358/PERS.72.3.249 · DOI · Paper page
  42. W Lutz, 2014, Population growth: Peak probability, Science, 346, 561, 10.1126/science.346.6209.561-a · DOI
  43. KC S, Lutz W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Global Environmental Change; 2014 (in press). <comment>doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004</comment> · DOI · Paper page
  44. P Gerland, 2014, World population stabilization unlikely this century, Science, 346, 234, 10.1126/science.1257469 · DOI · Paper page
  45. M Visbeck, 2014, Securing blue wealth: The need for a special sustainable development goal for the ocean and coasts, Marine Policy, 48, 184, 10.1016/j.marpol.2014.03.005 · DOI

Cited by

See all 2,858

Metadata

Authors
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. J.
Venue
PLOS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2015-03-11
Volume
10
Issue
3
Pages
e0118571
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
OpenAlex
W1974527622
Cited by
2,858
References
4
FWCI
131.01
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2015-06-18)
Open access
gold
Licence
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

How to cite

Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
The paper
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2015). Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment. PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.