The DOI matches its Crossref record; 64 of the 64 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
RETRACTED ARTICLE: The economic commitment of climate change
Open accessAbstract
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons 1–6 . Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes 7,8 . Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
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Cites
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., et al. (2020) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.3803 · Cited by 31,882
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 · Cited by 11,981
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607
Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114 · Cited by 3,311
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15725 · Cited by 2,913
Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2012) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.4.3.66 · Cited by 2,223
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Min, S.-K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Hegerl, G. C. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09763 · Cited by 2,083
Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes
Fischer, E. M., & Knutti, R. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2617 · Cited by 1,427
Social and economic impacts of climate
Carleton, T. A., & Hsiang, S. M. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad9837 · Cited by 1,348
Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation
Pfahl, S., O’Gorman, P. A., & Fischer, E. M. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3287 · Cited by 1,040
Cited by
Romanello, M., Walawender, M., Hsu, S.-C., Moskeland, A., Palmeiro-Silva, Y., Scamman, D., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Angelova, D., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., et al. (2024) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01822-1 · Cited by 897
Post-growth: the science of wellbeing within planetary boundaries
Kallis, G., Hickel, J., O’Neill, D. W., Jackson, T., Victor, P. A., Raworth, K., Schor, J. B., Steinberger, J. K., & Ürge-Vorsatz, D. (2025) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00310-3 · Cited by 261
Metadata
- Authors
- Kotz, M., Levermann, A., & Wenz, L.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2024-04-17
- Volume
- 628
- Issue
- 8008
- Pages
- 551-557
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4394892452
- Cited by
- 348
- References
- 64
- FWCI
- 124.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Status
- Retracted
- Open access
- hybrid
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
