Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Open accessAbstract
Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.
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Zhao et al (2017) showed considerable yield reductions of 6%, 3.2%, 3.1%, and 7.4% in wheat, rice, soybean, and maize respectively due to climate change.
“Zhao et al (2017) carried an experiment to analyze the climate change impact on major crop yields and showed considerable yield reductions of 6%, 3.2%, 3.1%, and 7.4% in wheat, rice, soybean, and maize respectively [46].”
From Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review (2019) · cites this paper as [46]
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- Authors
- Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J.-L., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Wang, T., Wu, D., Liu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhu, Z., & Asseng, S.
- Affiliations
- Peking University (CN)
- Nanjing Agricultural University (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Stanford University (US)
- University of Sassari (IT)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (FR)
- University of Chicago (US)
- University of Bonn (DE)
- University of Antwerp (BE)
- International Rice Research Institute (PH)
- Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CN)
- Institut Agro Montpellier (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- University of Florida (US)
- ORCID
- Zhao, Chuang
- Liu, Bing
- Piao, Shilong
- Wang, Xuhui
- Lobell, David B.
- Huang, Yao
- Huang, Mengtian
- Yao, Yitong
- Bassu, Simona
- Ciais, Philippe
- Durand, Jean-Louis
- Elliott, Joshua
- Ewert, Frank
- Janssens, Ivan A.
- Li, Tao
- Lin, Erda
- Liu, Qiang
- Martre, Pierre
- Müller, Christoph
- Peng, Shushi
- Peñuelas, Josep
- Ruane, Alex C.
- Wallach, Daniel
- Wang, Tao
- Wu, Donghai
- Liu, Zhuo
- Zhu, Yan
- Zhu, Zaichun
- Asseng, Senthold
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2017-08-15
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 35
- Pages
- 9326-9331
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5584412
- OpenAlex
- W2747319455
- Cited by
- 3,311
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 517 · 2025: 554 · 2024: 462 · 2023: 444 · 2022: 461 · 2021: 380 · 2020: 236 · 2019: 151 · 2018: 91 · 2017: 12 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 116.28
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Institute of Botany, CAS Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- mediaTUM – the media and publications repository of the Technical University Munich (Technical University Munich) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation of China (41530528 and 41561134016)
- German Federal Ministry Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- temperature effects on crop yield, climate change impacts on agriculture, food security, temperature rise
- MeSH terms
- Poaceae, Hot Temperature, Models, Biological, Glycine max, Crops, Agricultural, Climate Change
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