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Cited by 51Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesClimate change and permafrostBotany and Plant Ecology Studies

Plant diversity dynamics over space and time in a warming Arctic

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García Criado, Mariana, Myers-Smith, Isla H., Bjorkman, Anne D., Elmendorf, Sarah C., Normand, Signe, Aastrup, Peter, Aerts, Rien, Alatalo, Juha M. +46 more·2025·Nature
DOI 10.1038/s41586-025-08946-8PMC PMC12176628
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Abstract

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average 1 and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution 2–4 . However, the direction and magnitude of local changes in plant diversity in the Arctic have not been quantified. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots across the Arctic, here we quantified temporal changes in species richness and composition through repeat surveys between 1981 and 2022. We also identified the geographical, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. We found greater species richness at lower latitudes and warmer sites, but no indication that, on average, species richness had changed directionally over time. However, species turnover was widespread, with 59% of plots gaining and/or losing species. Proportions of species gains and losses were greater where temperatures had increased the most. Shrub expansion, particularly of erect shrubs, was associated with greater species losses and decreasing species richness. Despite changes in plant composition, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other, suggesting no biotic homogenization so far. Overall, Arctic plant communities changed in richness and composition in different directions, with temperature and plant–plant interactions emerging as the main drivers of change. Our findings demonstrate how climate and biotic drivers can act in concert to alter plant composition, which could precede future biodiversity changes that are likely to affect ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and the livelihoods of Arctic peoples 5,6 .

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  • Tundra greening has far-reaching impacts on Arctic landscapes, wildlife habitats, biodiversity, permafrost conditions, and the livelihood of Arctic people, with implications for global climate and the carbon cycle.

    “Tundra greening has far-reaching impacts to Arctic landscapes, wildlife habitats, biodiversity, permafrost conditions, and the livelihood of Arctic people, with implications for global climate and the carbon cycle.”

    From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Tundra Greenness (2025) · cites this paper as García Criado et al. 2025

    The Abstract (page unavailable) says changes in Arctic plant composition are likely to affect biodiversity, wildlife habitats and Arctic peoples’ livelihoods; the Main section also identifies plants as foundational to the carbon cycle. The source does not establish that tundra greening affects permafrost conditions or global climate. Its Main section instead discusses permafrost thaw as a possible cause of vegetation change. (LLM, conf=0.87)

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Authors
García Criado, M., Myers-Smith, I. H., Bjorkman, A. D., Elmendorf, S. C., Normand, S., Aastrup, P., Aerts, R., Alatalo, J. M., Baeten, L., Björk, R. G., Björkman, M. P., Boulanger-Lapointe, N., Butler, E. E., Cooper, E. J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Daskalova, G. N., Fadrique, B., Forbes, B. C., Henry, G. H. R., Hollister, R. D., Høye, T. T., Jacobsen, I. B. D., Jägerbrand, A. K., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Kaarlejärvi, E., Khitun, O., Klanderud, K., Kolari, T. H. M., Lang, S. I., Lecomte, N., Lenoir, J., Macek, P., Messier, J., Michelsen, A., Molau, U., Muscarella, R., Nielsen, M.-L., Petit Bon, M., Post, E., Raundrup, K., Rinnan, R., Rixen, C., Ryde, I., Serra-Diaz, J. M., Schaepman-Strub, G., Schmidt, N. M., Schrodt, F., Sjögersten, S., Steinbauer, M. J., Stewart, L., Strandberg, B., Tolvanen, A., Tweedie, C. E., & Vellend, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Gothenburg (SE)
  • Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
  • Aarhus University (DK)
  • Qatar University (QA)
  • Ghent University (BE)
  • University of Minnesota (US)
  • UiT The Arctic University of Norway (NO)
  • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
  • University of Lapland (FI)
  • University of British Columbia (CA)
  • Grand Valley State University (US)
  • Grønlands Naturinstitut (GL)
  • University of Gävle (SE)
  • University of Iceland (IS)
  • University of Helsinki (FI)
  • Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NO)
  • Université du Québec à Montréal (CA)
  • University Centre in Svalbard (SJ)
  • Université de Moncton (CA)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Estonian University of Life Sciences (EE)
  • University of Waterloo (CA)
  • University of Copenhagen (DK)
  • Uppsala University (SE)
  • University of California, Davis (US)
  • WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (CH)
  • AgroParisTech (FR)
  • University of Nottingham (GB)
  • University of Bayreuth (DE)
  • University of South-Eastern Norway (NO)
  • Natural Resources Institute Finland (FI)
  • The University of Texas at El Paso (US)
  • Université de Sherbrooke (CA)
ORCID
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2025-04-30
Volume
642
Issue
8068
Pages
653-661
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/s41586-025-08946-8
PMC
PMC12176628
OpenAlex
W4410019283
Cited by
51
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 40 · 2025: 11
FWCI
32.80
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • LaCRIS (University of Lapland) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
  • EcoEvoRxiv (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Digital Commons - USU (Utah State University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Diva portal (Dalarna University Library) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Uppsala University Publications (Uppsala University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DORA WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
  • Jukuri (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Qatar University QSpace (Qatar University) (submittedVersion)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (2021898, 1836839, 2113641)
  • National Geographic Society
  • Eesti Teaduste Akadeemia
  • ArcticNet
  • European Commission (892383)
  • National Research Foundation
  • Stiftelsen för Strategisk Forskning (FFL21-0194)
  • Danmarks Grundforskningsfond (DNRF168, DNRF100)
  • Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (2016-01187)
  • Academy of Finland (347188)
  • Canada Excellence Research Chairs, Government of Canada
  • Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (WAF KAW 2019.0202)
  • Vetenskapsrådet (2019-05264, 2016-01187)
  • Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond (DFF 4181‐00565)
  • Norges Forskningsråd (269957)
  • Eesti Maaülikool
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/W006448/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Climate change and permafrost
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
Keywords
species richness, species composition, species turnover, global warming, shrub expansion, biotic homogenization, plant-plant interactions, vascular plants, latitudinal gradient
MeSH terms
Arctic Regions, Plants, Temperature, Time Factors, Ecosystem, Biodiversity, Global Warming, Spatio-Temporal Analysis

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